{"id":10325,"date":"2025-09-15T00:25:59","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T00:25:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=10325"},"modified":"2025-09-15T00:26:01","modified_gmt":"2025-09-15T00:26:01","slug":"bay-thucydides-chien-tranh-my-hoa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=10325","title":{"rendered":"B\u1eaaY THUCYDIDES: NGUY C\u01a0 CHI\u1ebeN TRANH M\u1ef8-HOA?<\/strong>
Tr\u1ecdng Vi\u1ec7t<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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________________________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

G\u1eedi qu\u00fd \u0111\u1ed9c gi\u1ea3:
B\u00e0i vi\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u0103ng t\u1ea3i v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5, n\u0103m 2021. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9-Hoa hi\u1ec7n nay, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y n\u1ed9i dung v\u1eabn s\u00e1t v\u1edbi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00ean t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 xin \u0111\u0103ng l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u00fd v\u1ecb tham kh\u1ea3o.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00e1m n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ea5t Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u1edf \u00c2u Ch\u00e2u, Vua Edward VII c\u1ee7a Anh Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ecfi Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Henry Campbell-Bannerman l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i sao ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Anh, thay v\u00ec ph\u1ea3i l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia m\u00e0 \u00f4ng xem l\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi V\u01b0\u01a1ng Qu\u1ed1c Anh, th\u00ec l\u1ea1i quay ra ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u00f9 ngh\u1ecbch v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c-Ph\u1ed5 do ch\u00e1u trai c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0i l\u00e0 ho\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf Kaiser Wilhelm II tr\u1ecb v\u00ec. Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 th\u1ecb cho Gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u00e1ch n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao, Sir Eyre Crowe, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 vua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 1 th\u00e1ng 1, 1907, Eyre Crowe \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eedi l\u00ean nh\u00e0 Vua b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh qua B\u1ea3n Ghi Nh\u1edb n\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng\u00a0 (memorandum). T\u00e0i li\u1ec7u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u00ean ng\u1ecdc qu\u00fd trong bi\u00ean ni\u00ean s\u1eed c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh ngo\u1ea1i giao.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eyre Crowe \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1: Vi\u1ec7c \u0110\u1ee9c theo \u0111u\u1ed5i \u201cchi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n\u201d li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 g\u00e2y ra m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu v\u00e0 \u201cn\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng\u201d, v\u00e0 sau c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc Anh kh\u00f4ng?\u201d<\/mark><\/em>\u00a0 C\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Crowe r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng: \u201cKhi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua Anh, \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1edbm “x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n l\u1edbn m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3<\/strong>“.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea9y n\u0103m sau B\u1ea3n Ghi Nh\u1edb c\u1ee7a Crowe, n\u0103m 1914, \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ea5t Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e3 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9 gi\u1eefa \u00c1o-Hung v\u1edbi Serbia sau khi th\u00e1i t\u1eed \u00c1o-Hung Franz Ferdinand b\u1ecb \u00e1m s\u00e1t ch\u1ebft.<\/strong> Nh\u00e2n c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i, Ho\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c Kaiser Wilhelm II h\u1ea1 l\u1ec7nh t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng B\u1ec9, Luxembourg v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p, theo k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch Schlieffen. Sau \u0111\u00f3, chi\u1ebfn tranh lan r\u1ed9ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u00f5i Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u gi\u1eefa phe \u201cLi\u00ean Minh Trung T\u00e2m\u201d (Central Powers) g\u1ed3m \u00c1o-Hung, \u0110\u1ee9c-Ph\u1ed5, Bulgary v\u00e0 Ottoman ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i phe \u201c\u0110\u1ed3ng Minh\u201d (Entente cordiale) g\u1ed3m Anh, Ph\u00e1p, Nga (Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Ba T\u00e2y tham gia sau).<\/p>\n\n\n

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Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Anh di\u1ec5n h\u00e0nh t\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ed9 Whitehall, Westminster, London. 11-1919 khi \u0110\u1ec7 I Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn k\u1ebft th\u00fac<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

H\u01a1n 70 tri\u1ec7u qu\u00e2n nh\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c huy \u0111\u1ed9ng ra chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng, trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 60 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf \u00c2u ch\u00e2u, v\u00e0 tr\u00ean 19 tri\u1ec7u binh l\u00ednh v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi chi\u1ebfn tranh k\u1ebft th\u00fac 4 n\u0103m sau, ch\u00e2u \u00c2u n\u1eb1m trong \u0111\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed5 n\u00e1t: Ho\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c Kaiser ph\u1ea3i \u0111i t\u1ecb n\u1ea1n v\u00e0 ch\u1ebft t\u1ea1i H\u00f2a Lan, \u0110\u1ebf ch\u1ebf \u00c1o-Hung tan r\u00e3, Ottoman bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t, Sa ho\u00e0ng Nga b\u1ecb l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1edfi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Bolshevik, Anh c\u0169ng tan n\u00e1t v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p ch\u1ecbu t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ki\u1ec7t qu\u1ec7. M\u1ed9t thi\u00ean ni\u00ean k\u1ef7 m\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u1eebng l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eebng kh\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i trong hoang t\u00e0n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ghi nh\u1eadn \u1edf \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ea7m m\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00e3 nhen nh\u00fam t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch Schlieffen m\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c tri\u1ec3n khai kh\u01a1i m\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn x\u00e2m l\u0103ng Ph\u00e1p, Luxembourg \u00a0v\u00e0 B\u1ec9. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Nguy\u00ean so\u00e1i Alfred von Schlieffen so\u1ea1n th\u1ea3o v\u00e0 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u1eeb 9 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, n\u0103m 1905. Vi\u1ec7c Ho\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebf Kaiser Wilhelm II \u0111eo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf \u0110\u1ee9c-Ph\u1ed5 th\u00e0nh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u00e1ch quan. Tham v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ng\u00f4i v\u1ecb l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0 Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00fd lu\u1eadn, ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a Eyre Crowe \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec3u bi\u1ebft r\u1ea5t s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 bi\u00ean kh\u1ea3o v\u00e0 h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u1ee7a Thucydides.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Kh\u00e1i qu\u00e1t v\u1ec1 \u2018B\u1eaby Thucydides\u2019 v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/u><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

H\u01a1n 2.400 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, t\u1ee9c v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 th\u1ee9 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc C\u00f4ng nguy\u00ean, nh\u00e0 s\u1eed h\u1ecdc th\u1eddi c\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea1i Hy L\u1ea1p Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn tranh Peloponnesian.<\/strong> M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn k\u00e9o d\u00e0i 30 n\u0103m gi\u1eefa th\u00e0nh-bang (Polis) Athens v\u00e0 Sparta. Th\u00e0nh bang Athens \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 h\u01b0ng th\u1ecbnh c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf l\u1eabn qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 trong khi th\u00e0nh bang Sparta \u0111ang th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb khu v\u1ef1c.\u00a0 S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Athens khi\u1ebfn Sparta \u0111\u00e2m lo ng\u1ea1i v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c vai tr\u00f2 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u1ecb tr\u00ed quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Sparta. V\u00ec v\u1eady, chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u1eefa Sparta v\u00e0 Athens \u0111\u00e3 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Athens, v\u00e0 n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady n\u00e0y n\u01a1i Sparta, \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi<\/strong>!<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e3 c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u s\u1eed gia \u0111\u01b0a ra nhi\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch kh\u00e1c nhau v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn tranh Peloponnesian. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong bi\u00ean kh\u1ea3o v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y, Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 xo\u00e1y v\u00e0o nguy\u00ean \u1ee7y c\u1ee7a v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, t\u1ee9c nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c do s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 nhanh ch\u00f3ng trong c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa hai \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7.<\/strong> Thucydides x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh hai \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh: m\u1ed9t l\u00e0 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng c\u1ee7a Athens, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi \u00fd th\u1ee9c m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n; hai l\u00e0 n\u1ed7i b\u1ea5t an c\u1ee7a Sparta v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m duy tr\u00ec nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng, b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 m\u00e0 Sparta \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp<\/mark>. Thucydides \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn s\u00e2u s\u1eafc: “Ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a th\u00e0nh bang Athens, v\u00e0 n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady n\u00e0y n\u01a1i th\u00e0nh bang Sparta, \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi”.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Graham Allison<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

S\u1eed gia Graham Allison, gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Harvard, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng thu\u1ed9c Trung t\u00e2m Khoa h\u1ecdc v\u00e0 C\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Harvard Belfer, \u0111\u00e3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i trong 5 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 qua.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh bi\u00ean kh\u1ea3o n\u00e0y (Harvard Belfer Center\u2019s Thucydides Trap Case File) cho th\u1ea5y l\u00e0 trong 500 n\u0103m, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 16 cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa hai c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c, m\u1ed9t b\u00ean l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111ang v\u01b0\u01a1n l\u00ean v\u00e0 b\u00ean kia l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb. 12 trong s\u1ed1 16 tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch bi th\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia: \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh!<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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B\u1ea3ng t\u1ed5ng k\u1ebft c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eeb th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 16<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ti\u1ebfp theo ngay sau \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ea5t Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c Qu\u1ed1c X\u00e3 v\u00e0 Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u l\u1ea1i b\u1ecb l\u00f4i k\u00e9o v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c: \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ecb Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ede \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u, sau cu\u1ed9c Duy t\u00e2n Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Minh Tr\u1ecb Thi\u00ean Ho\u00e0ng n\u0103m 1868, vi\u1ec7c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i h\u00f3a nhanh ch\u00f3ng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c s\u1ef1 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a Trung Hoa v\u00e0 Nga \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1. S\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u0169ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh. M\u1edf \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh Nga-Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t M\u00e3n Ch\u00e2u v\u00e0 Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean n\u0103m 1904.<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac sau 2 n\u0103m b\u1edfi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng vang d\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt trong cu\u1ed9c H\u1ea3i chi\u1ebfn Tsushima \u1edf eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u1ed1i M\u00e3. H\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i Li\u00ean h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 huy c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed1c Togo Heihachiro \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 tan h\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i h\u00f9ng h\u1eadu c\u1ee7a Nga trong 2 ng\u00e0y, \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u00ecm 22 chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m, b\u1eaft gi\u1eef 7 t\u00e0u v\u00e0 h\u01a1n 6100 t\u00f9 binh, 5.000 binh s\u0129 Nga t\u1eed th\u01b0\u01a1ng. Nh\u1eadt ch\u1ec9 m\u1ea5t 3 ng\u01b0 l\u00f4i h\u1ea1m v\u00e0 700 th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong. Nga ph\u1ea3i k\u00fd Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh Portsmouth, nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1ea1i cho Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n c\u00e1c quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u00e0 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vai tr\u00f2 b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1a v\u00e0o c\u00e1c b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1eadn \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh cho ta th\u1ea5y d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eadp l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e9p \u1ea9n d\u1ee5 d\u00f9ng t\u00ean c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 s\u1eed h\u1ecdc Hy L\u1ea1p nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf ch\u00fang ta v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng nguy hi\u1ec3m khi m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ea1nh tranh v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ea1i v\u1ecb.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 Graham Allison \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng thu\u1eadt ng\u1eef<\/strong> “B\u1eaby Thucydides” \u0111\u1ec3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang l\u00ean Trung C\u1ed9ng (TC) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1i c\u01b0\u1eddng Hoa K\u1ef3 \u1edf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady \u201ckh\u00f4ng h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d qua s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng, b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng ng\u00e0y nay, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u d\u00e0nh cho c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u00fang ta l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u Trung C\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c ch\u1ea1y \u0111ua v\u0169 trang nguy hi\u1ec3m m\u00e0 sau c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f3i kh\u00e1c \u0111i, li\u1ec7u Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o B\u1eaby Thucydides? Hay chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ec7nh t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn xung \u0111\u1ed9t.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. Tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng.<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n
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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Sau khi n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n n\u0103m 2013, T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201c\u1ea9n m\u00ecnh ch\u1edd th\u1eddi\u201d (thao quang d\u01b0\u1ee1ng h\u1ed1i<\/strong>) c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh. H\u1ecd T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng ch\u00ed trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo d\u00f5i Trung C\u1ed9ng \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea3i kinh ng\u1ea1c v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 xoay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u00e1o b\u1ea1o trong tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, h\u1ecd T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf s\u1ef1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a t\u1eadp th\u1ec3<\/strong> qua m\u1ed9t \u1ee7y ban th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u1ee5 g\u1ed3m b\u1ea3y ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong B\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb –v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u1eb1m duy tr\u00ec \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, lo\u1ea1i b\u1edbt \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00f4n– m\u00e0 thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung m\u1ecdi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0o tay m\u00ecnh <\/strong>(gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Mao); ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t m\u1ecdi manh nha d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a<\/strong> b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch t\u00e1i kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n do ch\u00ednh y l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o; gia t\u0103ng vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p qu\u1ed1c doanh<\/strong>; v\u00e0 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u1eb7ng v\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ede n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i hung h\u0103ng, l\u1ea5n l\u01b0\u1edbt, ch\u00e8n \u00e9p, v\u1edbi th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 \u201ck\u1ebb c\u1ea3\u201d n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn; s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u201cb\u1eaby n\u1ee3\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 khuynh \u0111\u1ea3o c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u00e8o; \u0111\u00e1nh c\u1eafp t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7; ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n trong vi\u1ec7c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1i m\u00e0 T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cGi\u1ea5c m\u01a1 Trung Hoa<\/strong>\u201d, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cho l\u00e0 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n nguy\u1ec7n v\u1ecdng s\u00e2u s\u1eafc nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi Hoa kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u m\u00e0 c\u00f2n th\u00e2u t\u00f3m quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c. C\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a \u201ct\u00edn ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng v\u0103n minh\u201d c\u1ee7a Trung Hoa l\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin \u2014 hay s\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 ki\u00eau h\u00e3nh \u2014 r\u1eb1ng Trung Hoa l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a v\u0169 tr\u1ee5.<\/strong> K\u00fd \u1ee9c l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gu\u1ed3ng m\u00e1y tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n nh\u1eafc \u0111i nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i nh\u01b0 li\u1ec1u thu\u1ed1c \u201ck\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c c\u1ef1c \u0111oan<\/strong>\u201d l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 n\u1ed7i nh\u1ee5c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Trung Hoa \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 b\u00f3c l\u1ed9t c\u1ee7a th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 TC ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 th\u00f9<\/strong>. Theo quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh, v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i \u0111\u00fang ch\u1ed7, v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn v\u00e0 t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, m\u1ed1i \u201cqu\u1ed1c nh\u1ee5c 100 n\u0103m\u201d n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eeda khi c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ph\u1ea3i \u201cth\u1ea7n ph\u1ee5c\u201d m\u1ed9t \u201cTrung Hoa v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i\u201d v\u00e0 \u201ckh\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ea7u\u201d tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3<\/strong>. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a \u201cGi\u1ea5c m\u1ed9ng Trung Hoa\u201d c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh<\/strong>, m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea5c m\u1ed9ng b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi<\/strong>. Theo c\u00e1c toan t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd T\u1eadp, gi\u1ea5c m\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2049<\/strong> qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. V\u00e0 n\u0103m 2049 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 l\u00fac k\u1ef7 ni\u1ec7m 100 th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp C\u1ed9ng H\u00f2a Nh\u00e2n D\u00e2n Trung Hoa.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110eo \u0111u\u1ed5i tham v\u1ecdng \u0111i\u00ean cu\u1ed3ng tr\u00ean, c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c TC s\u1ebd th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c v\u1ecb tr\u00ed l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1ef1 do c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, s\u1ebd so\u00e1n ng\u00f4i b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 ho\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh, \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t nh\u1eefng quy lu\u1eadt m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a TC v\u00e0 sau c\u00f9ng, quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t, s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c xu th\u1ebf t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi: K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean H\u00f2a B\u00ecnh Ph\u1ed5 Qu\u00e1t (Pax Universalis) v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c.<\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n
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Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, khi \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1ef1c t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n-c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, s\u1ef1 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c l\u1eadp do s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p l\u01b0u h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do<\/strong>. Hoa K\u1ef3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1ec1 m\u1ecdi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n: kinh t\u1ebf, qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, khoa h\u1ecdc, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ..v..v.. Do \u0111\u00f3, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c \u0111a di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 m\u1edbi n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c TT George H W Bush m\u1ec7nh danh l\u00e0 k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u201cH\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t<\/strong>\u201d (Pax Universalis) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh tr\u00ean ba n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u0103n b\u1ea3n<\/strong>. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n<\/strong>, t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/strong>, v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do<\/strong>. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia gia nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7, t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh chung, c\u00f9ng h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u1edbi c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. C\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn chung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, sau \u0110\u1ec7 Nh\u1ecb Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn, nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp t\u1ea1i \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u, Phi Ch\u00e2u, Nam M\u1ef9 sau khi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba. Xu th\u1ebf Gi\u1ea3i Th\u1ef1c, h\u1eadu thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 xu th\u1ebf chung c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cho tr\u00e0o l\u01b0u t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n, m\u1ed9t tr\u00e0o l\u01b0u t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 kh\u00e1ch quan, <\/strong>lan r\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp ch\u00e2u l\u1ee5c m\u00e0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111ang ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 1995, trong m\u1ed9t ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u tr\u01b0\u1edbc H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Kho\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng LHQ, \u0110\u1ee9c Gi\u00e1o Ho\u00e0ng Gioan Phao L\u1ed3 \u0110\u1ec7 II \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i: “T\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng t\u1ef1 do l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u00fang ta<\/strong>“.<\/mark> Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n t\u1ea3 tr\u1ecdn v\u1eb9n y\u1ebfu t\u00ednh v\u00e0 t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea c\u1ee7a Pew (Pew research center), t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2017, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 96 qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi theo th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do, 46 qu\u1ed1c gia ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, v\u00e0 21 qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f2n trong ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i; so v\u1edbi th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 70 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 25 qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 t\u1ef1 do, d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7. Sau chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, 27 qu\u1ed1c gia trong kh\u1ed1i c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n S\u00f4 Vi\u1ebft, \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 theo th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7, t\u1ef1 do.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn r\u1ed9ng r\u00e3i c\u1ee7a tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc theo th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 b\u1edfi Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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T\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng t\u1ef1 do l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1eb7c th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u00fang ta<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u00ean, h\u00e3ng th\u00f4ng t\u1ea5n AFP cho bi\u1ebft l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00f4ng c\u00e1o chung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 sau cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ea5p ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng 27 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Li\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p \u00c2u Ch\u00e2u h\u00f4m 19\/04\/2021<\/strong>, nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i cho kinh t\u1ebf \u201cm\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc, c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edf v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0<\/strong>\u201d. C\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Li\u00ean \u00c2u mu\u1ed1n b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn giao th\u00f4ng h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u201ct\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 m\u1edf, n\u01a1i lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng\u201d<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt c\u1ee7a th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea1i n\u00e0y<\/strong> kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng k\u1ebb H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ef1c \u0111oan b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c hay m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga \u0111ang v\u00f9ng d\u1eady, m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 \u201ctr\u1ed7i d\u1eady kh\u00f4ng h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf do Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 mang l\u1ea1i h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi trong 70 n\u0103m qua. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i to\u00e0n tr\u1ecb v\u1eafng b\u00f3ng t\u1ef1 do, d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia l\u00e3o th\u00e0nh, ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp n\u01b0\u1edbc Singapore, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng L\u00fd Quang Di\u1ec7u, t\u1eebng l\u00e0 c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng, thu\u1edf sinh ti\u1ec1n, khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi li\u1ec7u c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ea3ng CS Hoa L\u1ee5c c\u00f3 tham v\u1ecdng thay th\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u, \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi th\u1eadt d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t l\u00e0 \u201c\u0110\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean. T\u1ea1i sao kh\u00f4ng!\u201d V\u00e0 khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c TC c\u00f3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf do M\u1ef9 thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf v\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i: \u201cch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd TC mu\u1ed1n h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u1edbi Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd t\u1ecf ra tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh. V\u1edbi c\u00e1c toan t\u00ednh, m\u01b0u \u0111\u1ed3 c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp, ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i TC s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 quy lu\u1eadt kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do<\/strong>.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, TC \u0111ang l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f4m nay v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t, nh\u01b0 John Ratcliffe, nguy\u00ean gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u01a1 Quan T\u00ecnh B\u00e1o Qu\u1ed1c Gia Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u0103m 2020.<\/strong><\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u0169ng nh\u01b0 Ph\u00fac tr\u00ecnh t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o M\u1ef9<\/strong> c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 ng\u00e0y 13\/4\/2021: Vi\u1ec7c Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng v\u1edbi nguy c\u01a1 b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t chi\u1ebfn tranh:<\/u><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh, \u0110\u00e0i Loan<\/strong> v\u00e0 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng<\/strong> l\u00e0 hai trong n\u0103m \u201cl\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i<\/strong>\u201d c\u1ee7a TC v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00e2u t\u00f3m, chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi gi\u00e1 (c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 T\u00e2y T\u1ea1ng, H\u1ed3ng K\u00f4ng, T\u00e2n C\u01b0\u01a1ng). V\u00ec v\u1eady, hi\u1ec7n nay \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng lu\u00f4n lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 n\u01a1i m\u00e0 TC t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng, x\u00e2m ph\u1ea1m, chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t, g\u00e2y c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u00ean b\u00e1o Bloomberg ng\u00e0y 25\/04\/2021, c\u1ef1u \u0111\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed1c H\u1ea3i Qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 James Stavridis, nguy\u00ean t\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh t\u1ed1i cao c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean Minh B\u1eafc \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng NATO, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m trong H\u1ea3i Qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 \u1edf mi\u1ec1n T\u00e2y Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, trong b\u00e0i \u201cB\u1ed1n c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh M\u1ef9-Trung tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra<\/strong> \u2013 (Four Ways a China-U.S. War at Sea Could Play Out)\u201d — \u0111\u00e3 cho r\u1eb1ng \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00f3ng d\u1ec5 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan<\/strong>, nh\u01b0ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n Hoa \u0110\u00f4ng, Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng ho\u1eb7c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 d\u1eef ki\u1ec7n sau cho th\u1ea5y r\u00f5 th\u00eam t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1, m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c gi\u1edbi ch\u1ee9c c\u00f3 tr\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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  • \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/u><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n
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    \"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

    Kurt Campell, <\/strong>t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cXoay tr\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u<\/strong>\u201d c\u1ee7a TT Obama v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 \u0110i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i vi\u00ean \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (Indo-Pacific Coordinator ), \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u00e1ch \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng, thu\u1ed9c H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng An Ninh Qu\u1ed1c Gia (National Security Council), \u0111\u00e3 t\u00f3m t\u1eaft ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7aTrung C\u1ed9ng<\/strong>: \u201cCh\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a TC bi\u1ec3u hi\u1ec7n qua vi\u1ec7c hung h\u0103ng l\u1ea5n l\u01b0\u1edbt t\u1ea1i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p b\u1eaft ch\u1eb9t, tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i \u00dac, ngo\u1ea1i giao chi\u1ebfn s\u00f3i \u1edf \u00c2u Ch\u00e2u, g\u00e2y xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng t\u1ea1i bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u1edbi \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u2026. nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 n\u01a1i n\u00e0o m\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, ngo\u1ea1i giao l\u1ea1i n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 v\u00e0 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c nh\u01b0 t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00e0i Loan<\/mark><\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    M\u1edbi g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, trong h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh M\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4\/2021 gi\u1eefa TT Biden v\u00e0 Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Suga, m\u1ed9t Tuy\u00ean B\u1ed1 Chung \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u0111\u1ebfn \u0110\u00e0i Loan. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn trong tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chung gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1969 \u0111\u1ebfn nay<\/strong>. Th\u1ee7 T\u01b0\u1edbng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n Suga <\/strong>cho bi\u1ebft hai b\u00ean th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, T\u00e2n C\u01b0\u01a1ng, v\u00e0 \u201cM\u1ef9-Nh\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan\u201d. \u00d4ng Suga n\u00f3i th\u00eam \u201c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u00f4ng Biden \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ed3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng d\u00f9ng th\u1ee7 \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u0169 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng khu v\u1ef1c Bi\u1ec3n Hoa \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng<\/strong>, \u0111e d\u1ecda khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong m\u1ed9t di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn kh\u00e1c, h\u00f4m 25-4-2021, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng N\u1ed9i v\u1ee5 \u00dac Mike Pezzullo<\/strong> c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do ph\u1ea3i chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho chi\u1ebfn tranh. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u00dac Peter Dutton<\/strong> c\u0169ng khuy\u1ebfn c\u00e1o kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t gi\u1eefa Trung C\u1ed9ng v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, theo RFI, \u00f4ng Colby (c\u1ef1u gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c CIA, Hoa K\u1ef3) \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 T\u00e2y Berlin trong th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3i b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi gi\u00e1. Berlin mang \u00fd ngh\u0129a bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng l\u1edbn, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, trong khi \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f2n c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0111\u1ecba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf, qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00ec h\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 k\u1ef9 ngh\u1ec7 b\u00e1n d\u1eabn c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Economist s\u1ed1 th\u00e1ng 5\/2021 trong b\u00e0i \u201cN\u01a1i nguy hi\u1ec3m nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ecba c\u1ea7u\u201d (The most dangerous place on Earth) cho bi\u1ebft th\u00eam l\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ty b\u00e1n d\u1eabn TSMC<\/strong> (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan, c\u00f4ng ty s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u2018vi m\u1ea1ch b\u00e1n d\u1eabn\u2019 ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef 87% th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n vi m\u1ea1ch b\u00e1n d\u1eabn to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/strong> K\u1ef9 ngh\u1ec7 (firm\u2019s technology) v\u00e0 k\u1ef9 n\u0103ng (know-how) c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan trong l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi (k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 TC) 10 n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    H\u1ea3i Qu\u00e2n \u0110\u00f4 \u0110\u1ed1c John Aquilino, t\u00e2n t\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, n\u00f3i v\u1edbi Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng Ba n\u0103m nay: Theo \u00f4ng, Trung C\u1ed9ng \u201ccoi vi\u1ec7c chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t\u201d, v\u00e0 “nguy c\u01a1 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta v\u1eabn d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n\u201d. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4 \u0110\u1ed1c Davidson, v\u1ecb t\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh ti\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7m, r\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y \u0111\u1ebfn trong 5 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Do v\u1eady, m\u1ed1i nguy \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1ecb x\u00e2m l\u0103ng b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1eadt.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n