{"id":10985,"date":"2021-07-03T01:48:57","date_gmt":"2021-07-03T01:48:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=10985"},"modified":"2021-07-03T01:49:01","modified_gmt":"2021-07-03T01:49:01","slug":"phai-vay-them-no-ba-dinh-danh-gia-lai-gdp","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=10985","title":{"rendered":"PH\u1ea2I VAY TH\u00caM N\u1ee2, BA \u0110\u00ccNH \u0110\u00c1NH GI\u00c1 L\u1ea0I GDP<\/strong>
Tr\u1ea7n Nguy\u00ean Thao<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"
____________________________<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n
  • C\u1edd b\u1ea1c, m\u00e3i d\u00e2m, c\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 . . .\u00a0 l\u00e0 \u201ckinh t\u1ebf ng\u1ea7m\u201d s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng GDP .<\/strong><\/li>
  • C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng tham nh\u0169ng c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u, l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, th\u00ec GDP c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng.<\/strong><\/li>
  • \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i GDP, kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m cho Kinh T\u1ebf l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng Ch\u00ednh Ph\u1ee7 s\u1ebd d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec3 vay th\u00eam n\u1ee3.<\/strong><\/li>
  • GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh tuy c\u00f3 t\u0103ng qua c\u00e1c n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 3.200-3.500 M\u1ef9 kim \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020.<\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Do nhu c\u1ea7u vay n\u1ee3, g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y CSVN c\u00f3 khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u201c\u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i\u201d nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2010, b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n\u00a0 m\u1ed7i n\u0103m th\u00eam tr\u00ean 25%, v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng l\u00e0m cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn h\u01a1n, thu h\u00fat h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i (?). Nh\u01b0ng quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n h\u1ebft, kh\u00f4ng n\u00f3i ra v\u00ec \u201cph\u1ea3i vay th\u00eam n\u1ee3\u201d- vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hay kh\u00f4ng th\u00ec ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc! Vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i GDP \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c CSVN chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u1eeb 3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, nh\u01b0ng nay g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 to\u00e0n h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ecdn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u1ed5 v\u00f5 cho vi\u1ec7c \u201ct\u1ea1o th\u00eam t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p\u201d h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 vay m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n n\u1ee3 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 1,734 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng cho 3 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, t\u1eeb 2021-2023. Ri\u00eang n\u0103m 2021 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ph\u1ea3i vay 624.221 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. [1]<\/sup><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Sau khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i so v\u1edbi tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i, GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam cao h\u01a1n t\u1eebng qu\u00e3ng th\u1eddi gian nh\u01b0 sau: 2010 l\u00e0 27% . . ., 2015 l\u00e0 23,83%. . ., 2019 l\u00e0 26,79%, 2020 l\u00e0 26,8% – C\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1eeba k\u1ec3 t\u0103ng kh\u00e1 cao, b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n cao h\u01a1n tr\u00ean 25%. \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i GDP ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 danh ngh\u0129a tr\u00ean s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m cho Kinh T\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u1edbn h\u01a1n.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    GDP vi\u1ebft t\u1eaft t\u1eeb Gross Domestic Product l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m qu\u1ed1c n\u1ed9i, ghi l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5, do ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u01b0 ng\u1ee5 c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng hay qu\u1ed1c gia trong th\u1eddi gian nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t, ba, s\u00e1u th\u00e1ng hay m\u1ed7i n\u0103m. C\u00e1ch t\u00ednh GDP l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0nh \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi chuy\u00ean m\u00f4n. C\u00f3 (3) ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ednh GDP: chi ti\u00eau, tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 gia t\u0103ng v\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp [2]<\/sup>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    GDP th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u kinh t\u1ebf, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a con ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u1eeb l\u00e2u nay GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u nghi ng\u1edd, tranh c\u00e3i, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng chuy\u1ec7n r\u1ea5t \u201cb\u1ea5t ng\u1edd\u201d, nghe \u0111\u1ebfn ai c\u0169ng h\u00e1 h\u1ecdng, ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean. . .  Ph\u00eda nghi ng\u1edd cho r\u1eb1ng, GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ecnh b\u1ea7y theo h\u01b0\u1edbng \u201ct\u00f4 h\u1ed3ng\u201d. K\u1ebb c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n th\u00ec \u201cch\u01b0a h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng\u201d, c\u00f2n mu\u1ed1n t\u00f4 \u201c\u0111\u1eadm\u201d h\u01a1n n\u1eefa \u201cm\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea1t\u201d ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau do \u0111\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ec1 ra. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Ti\u1ebfn s\u1ef9 V\u0169 Quang Vi\u1ec7t, t\u1eebng ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 t\u1ea1i C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea Li\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ea9n tr\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng: \u201cc\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1m k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn l\u00e0 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam do T\u1ed5ng C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea t\u00ednh l\u00e0 cao h\u01a1n s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C\u00f2n quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea (TCTK) t\u1eeb 3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i: “kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1eabn t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u01b0a quan s\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y, TCTK \u0111\u00e3 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 so\u1ea1n th\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ec1 \u00e1n \u201cth\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khu v\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf ch\u01b0a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c quan s\u00e1t \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam\u201d, nh\u1eb1m t\u00ednh to\u00e1n b\u1ed5 sung v\u00e0o quy m\u00f4 GDP s\u1ebd c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1edbi”.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110\u1ec1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0a ra nh\u1eb1m thi h\u00e0nh \u01b0\u1edbc mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a CSVN, mong t\u00ecm m\u1ee9c thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1ea7m trong ph\u1ea1m vi gia \u0111\u00ecnh hay c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i ngh\u1ec1 b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p nh\u01b0 c\u1edd b\u1ea1c, m\u00e3i d\u00e2m, bu\u00f4n l\u1eadu. . . ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u nghi\u00ean s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 cho v\u00e0o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea; l\u00e0m cho t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u1ed1c gia (GDP) c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng th\u00eam trung b\u00ecnh tr\u00ean 25% n\u1eefa cho m\u1ed7i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    GDP n\u0103m 2021 theo gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea1t 9 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng sau khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh t\u0103ng 25,4%. Ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tr\u00ecnh Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i trong b\u00e1o c\u00e1o s\u1ed1 530\/BC-CP ng\u00e0y 16\/10\/2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Theo \u1ea4n ph\u1ea9m \u201c\u0110\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng kinh t\u1ebf \u2013 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i Vi\u1ec7t Nam 5 n\u0103m 2016-2020\u201d [3]<\/sup> c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh tuy c\u00f3 t\u0103ng qua c\u00e1c n\u0103m nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t so v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 3.200-3.500 M\u1ef9 kim \u0111\u1eb7t ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020. Hi\u1ec7n nay Vi\u1ec7t Nam ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp trung b\u00ecnh th\u1ea5p, n\u0103m 2019 GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi x\u1ebfp th\u1ee9 120\/187 qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5, ch\u1ec9 ngang b\u1eb1ng m\u1ee9c GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Malaysia n\u0103m 1993; Th\u00e1i Lan n\u0103m 2003; Indonesia n\u0103m 2010; Trung c\u1ed9ng n\u0103m 2009 v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 90 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2019, GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i Lan g\u1ea5p 2,3 l\u1ea7n Vi\u1ec7t Nam; Malaysia g\u1ea5p 3,5 l\u1ea7n; Indonesia v\u00e0 Philippines c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ea5p nh\u01b0ng h\u01a1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 1,5 l\u1ea7n v\u00e0 1,1 l\u1ea7n; ri\u00eang H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp cao v\u1edbi GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01a1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam 5,7 l\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Vi\u1ec7c t\u00ednh to\u00e1n kinh t\u1ebf ng\u1ea7m v\u00e0o GDP b\u1ecb \u0111a s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia t\u1ed1 c\u00e1o l\u00e0, \u00e2m m\u01b0u n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eb1m ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch l\u00e0m cho GDP c\u00f3 v\u1ebb l\u1edbn h\u01a1n khi\u1ebfn t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nguy c\u01a1 n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n tr\u1ea7n n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng. T\u1ee9c l\u00e0 H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i th\u1ea5y h\u1ebft ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01a1i, ph\u1ea3i chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb t\u00e0i li\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111i vay th\u00eam n\u1ee3. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2020, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam b\u1eb1ng kho\u1ea3ng 55,8% GDP v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kho\u1ea3ng 49,6% GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ch\u1ee7 nhi\u1ec7m Khoa, tr\u01b0\u1eddng \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc X\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i, Gi\u00e1o S\u01b0 Nguy\u1ec5n \u0111\u00ecnh C\u1ed1ng trong m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft c\u00f3 \u0111o\u1ea1n: \u201c\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o GDP c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia t\u0103ng ngo\u1ea1n m\u1ee5c m\u00e0 c\u1ee9 b\u0103n kho\u0103n. N\u00f3 t\u0103ng nh\u1edd c\u00e1i g\u00ec? T\u1ea1i sao GDP nh\u01b0 v\u1eady m\u00e0 n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i v\u1eabn t\u0103ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng bi\u1ebft GDP t\u0103ng th\u00ec to\u00e0n d\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ee3i g\u00ec? Ri\u00eang l\u00e3o gi\u00e0 h\u01b0u tr\u00ed nh\u01b0 t\u00f4i th\u1ea5y b\u1ecb thi\u1ec7t so v\u1edbi m\u1ea5y n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00ec l\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01b0u tuy c\u00f3 th\u00eam ch\u00fat \u00edt, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng nhanh h\u01a1n\u201d. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    G\u1ea7n 3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc (8\/2018), c\u00e1c b\u00e1o Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u0103ng: b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n g\u00e1nh h\u01a1n 35 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng n\u0103m 2018 [4]<\/sup>, t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 4 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2017 (m\u1ee9c 31 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ed3ng).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    D\u00e2n ch\u00fang ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o, Vi\u1ec7t nam t\u00ednh GDP theo ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0o. C\u00f2n T\u1ed5ng C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea n\u00f3i l\u00e0 GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u00ednh theo th\u00f4ng l\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"
    C: Ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a to\u00e0n d\u00e2n; I: T\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0; G: Chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7; X: Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u; M: Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia n\u00f3i l\u00e0 Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh GDP theo ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p chi ti\u00eau: GDP = (ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng + \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 + xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u) – nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u<\/strong>. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng GDP b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch thu th\u1eadp c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u v\u1ec1:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Do gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf (Y) ph\u1ea3i b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5ng chi ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec3 mua l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u00f3 n\u00ean t\u1ed5ng chi ti\u00eau b\u1eb1ng GDP (Y) = C + I + G + X-M<\/strong> [5]<\/sup>\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u (X) l\u00e0 h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1, d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111em b\u00e1n ra cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u (M) l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0ng ho\u00e1 v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mua v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u1ebfu X > M g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t si\u00eau; M > X g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 nh\u1eadp si\u00eau; X = M l\u00e0 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, theo Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng MB (Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank), \u0110\u00e0m nh\u00e2n \u0110\u1ee9c \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 quy m\u00f4 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 v\u1ec1 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau GDP th\u1ef1c ra ch\u01b0a ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 b\u1ee9c tranh c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n doanh nghi\u1ec7p FDI chuy\u00ean v\u1ec1 khai th\u00e1c t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean s\u1ebd chuy\u1ec3n ph\u1ea7n l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ecd nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n trong GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C\u00f2n nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n ti\u1ec1n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 kh\u00e1c do tham nh\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u1ec3 mua c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, c\u1ea5t d\u1ea5u tr\u1ed1n thu\u1ebf, chi ti\u00eau xa x\u1ec9. . .  nh\u1eefng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u chi ti\u00eau to l\u1edbn v\u1eeba n\u00f3i ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thu\u1ed9c nh\u00f3m quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong n\u01b0\u1edbc, l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n thu\u1ed9c m\u1ee5c \u201cti\u00eau d\u00f9ng to\u00e0n d\u00e2n\u201d \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh v\u00e0o GDP, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kh\u1ed1i t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng nhi\u1ec1u c\u00e1ch ra kh\u1ecfi n\u01b0\u1edbc r\u1ed3i!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ph\u00fac tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i Chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ecba \u1ed1c qu\u1ed1c gia Hoa K\u1ef3 (NAR) c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u00f4m 18-7-2018 cho bi\u1ebft, c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ee9ng \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed th\u1ee9 9, v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ecf ra \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh h\u01a1n 3 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim (Con s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y m\u1ed7i n\u0103m m\u1ed7i t\u0103ng), chi\u1ebfm 2% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i chi ra \u0111\u1ec3 mua nh\u00e0 \u1edf M\u1ef9. Tr\u00ean b\u00e1o m\u1ea1ng n\u00eau \u0111\u00edch danh m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u cho vi\u1ec7c chuy\u1ec3n t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n kh\u1ecfi Vi\u1ec7t Nam [6]<\/sup>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    B\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng n\u00e0o do Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc hay do B\u1eafc Kinh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nh\u01b0 v\u00e0i th\u00ed d\u1ee5 d\u01b0\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y, m\u00e0 tham nh\u0169ng c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u, l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00e0ng k\u00e9m th\u00ec GDP c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng! K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 t\u0103ng chi (g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 ph\u1ea7n tham nh\u0169ng) s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi v\u00e0o m\u1ee5c (G : Government Spending).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    D\u1ef1 \u00e1n s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ed1 356 ch\u1ec9 d\u00e0i 2.2 c\u00e2y s\u1ed1, n\u1eb1m t\u1eeb ng\u00e3 ba Nguy\u1ec5n b\u1ec9nh Khi\u00eam \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1eadp \u0110\u00ecnh V\u0169, H\u1ea3i Ph\u00f2ng. Theo c\u00e1c s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u Thanh tra \u0111\u01b0a ra, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u cho \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u1eafn n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 314,9 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u01b0ng sau \u0111\u00f3, v\u1ed1n b\u1ecb “\u0111\u1ed9i l\u00ean” t\u1edbi 1.310,9 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 56 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 Kim. N\u1ebfu \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i s\u1eeda ch\u1eefa th\u00eam n\u1eefa, th\u00ec 1.310,9 t\u1ef7 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7n c\u01a1 s\u1edf, c\u1ed9ng trong GDP. Nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eadt c\u1ee7a \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nh\u1ecf, trong khi s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u \u201cma\u201d kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t g\u1ea7n 1000 t\u1ef7 [7]<\/sup>. (b\u00e1o Giao Th\u00f4ng V\u1eadn t\u1ea3i 18-07-18).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng S\u1eaft C\u00e1t Linh- H\u00e0 \u0110\u00f4ng d\u00e0i 13 km, l\u00e0 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng do B\u1ed9 Giao Th\u00f4ng V\u1eadn T\u1ea3i l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7, kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng th\u00e1ng 11\/2011, kinh ph\u00ed 552 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 kim. Sau 10 n\u0103m ch\u1eadm ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, m\u00e3i \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 5\/2021 c\u0169ng v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a khai th\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i m\u00e0 v\u1ed1n th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 886 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 kim. H\u00f4m 28\/6 ki\u1ec3m to\u00e1n Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1edbi kh\u00e1m ph\u00e1 th\u00eam ra d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y t\u00ednh sai gi\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u00f4ng h\u01a1n 222 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Th\u00e1ng 11-2016, v\u1edbi 82,39% \u0111\u1ea1i bi\u1ec3u t\u00e1n th\u00e0nh, Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i (QH) \u0111\u00e3 th\u00f4ng qua Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u l\u1ea1i n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2016-2020<\/strong>. Theo \u0111\u00f3, quy m\u00f4 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng<\/strong> h\u1eb1ng n\u0103m giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 65% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m qu\u1ed1c n\u1ed9i (GDP), n\u1ee3 Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 54% GDP v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 50% GDP [8]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    N\u0103m 2021, sau khi \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i GDP, n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng tr\u00ean GDP s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 56,1% c\u00f2n 44,7%; n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 tr\u00ean GDP gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 49,2% c\u00f2n 39,2%; n\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i tr\u00ean GDP gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 45,8% c\u00f2n 36,5%; th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch tr\u00ean GDP gi\u1ea3m t\u1eeb 3,6% c\u00f2n 2,9%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    C\u0103n c\u1ee9 v\u00e0o th\u00f4ng tin tr\u00ean th\u00ec ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i kh\u00f3a XIVv\u1ec1 th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ebft hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c. Nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, ph\u00eda Ch\u00ednh Ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1ed9ng tay d\u00f9ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a T\u00f4ng C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea, t\u1ee9c n\u1ee3 Ch\u00ednh Ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi c\u00f3 39,2% \u0111\u1ec3 vay th\u00eam n\u1ee3 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb m\u1ed9t t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u00e0o do l\u1eadp ph\u00e1p (d\u00f9 c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 b\u00f9 nh\u00ecn) r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tuy nhi\u00ean c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf n\u00e0o d\u00e1m cho CSVN vay n\u1ee3 trong ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 vay \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bao nhi\u00eau, ch\u01b0a bi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tr\u1ea7n Nguy\u00ean Thao<\/strong>
    01 July 2021<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tham kh\u1ea3o:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    [1] https:\/\/zingnews.vn\/chinh-phu-du-kien-vay-1-7-trieu-ty-dong-trong-3-nam-toi-post1224495.html
    [2] https:\/\/vi.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/T%E1%BB%95ng_s%E1%BA%A3n_ph%E1%BA%A9m_n%E1%BB%99i_%C4%91%E1%BB%8Ba
    [3] https:\/\/www.gso.gov.vn\/du-lieu-va-so-lieu-thong-ke\/2021\/06\/dong-thai-va-thuc-trang-kinh-te-xa-hoi-viet-nam-5-nam-2016-2020\/
    [4] https:\/\/thanhnien.vn\/thoi-su\/moi-nguoi-viet-ganh-35-trieu-dong-no-cong-994012.html
    [5] https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Gross_domestic_product
    [6] http:\/\/nguoibuongio1972.blogspot.com\/2018\/08\/cuoc-ra-i-cua-nhung-ke-hai-khe.html
    [7] http:\/\/www.baogiaothong.vn\/hai-phong-bac-thong-tin-lam-22km-duong-doi-von-1000-ty-dong-d264721.html
    [8] https:\/\/nld.com.vn\/thoi-su-trong-nuoc\/no-cong-khong-duoc-qua-65-gdp-20161108222255836.htm<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    C\u1edd b\u1ea1c, m\u00e3i d\u00e2m, c\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed9 . . .\u00a0 l\u00e0 \u201ckinh t\u1ebf ng\u1ea7m\u201d s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng GDP . C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng tham nh\u0169ng c\u00e0ng nhi\u1ec1u, l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, th\u00ec GDP c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng. \u0110\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i GDP, kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m cho Kinh T\u1ebf\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":7363,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,53],"tags":[212,82,257,198,249,332],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-10985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-kinh-te","tag-kinh-te-xhcn","tag-no-cong","tag-tham-nhung","tag-vay-no"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10985","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10985"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10985\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/7363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10985"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10985"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10985"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}