{"id":13630,"date":"2022-03-09T03:41:57","date_gmt":"2022-03-09T03:41:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=13630"},"modified":"2022-03-09T03:41:59","modified_gmt":"2022-03-09T03:41:59","slug":"cuoc-chien-o-ukraine-se-thay-doi-sau-sac-tinh-hinh-dia-chinh-tri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=13630","title":{"rendered":"Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Ukraine s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i s\u00e2u s\u1eafc t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/strong>
The Economist<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Ngu\u1ed3n: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong> The war in Ukraine is going to change geopolitics profoundly<\/strong>,  The Economist<\/em>, 05\/03\/2022<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u quen thu\u1ed9c, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u ng\u00e0y 25\/02, m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y sau khi cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Nga b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, Volodymyr Zelensky, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Ukraine, tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1, \u201cNg\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay, ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed9c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00ecnh.\u201d \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u201ckh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u.\u201d Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u duy nh\u1ea5t ti\u1ebfn ra chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ukraine.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i x\u1ea5u h\u1ed5. Sau nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n, kinh ho\u00e0ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00f4 c\u0103n c\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a Putin, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c truy\u1ec1n c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng b\u1edfi l\u00f2ng d\u0169ng c\u1ea3m c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00ednh Ukraine, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u1ed1, v\u00e0 c\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi n\u00f3i c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Zelensky, l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU, <\/strong>\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c sinh ra t\u1eeb \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n chi\u1ebfn tranh, \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9a chi tr\u1ea3 cho c\u00e1c v\u0169 kh\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi \u0111\u1ebfn Ukraine. Th\u1ee5y S\u0129<\/strong> trung l\u1eadp h\u1ee9a s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh c\u00e1c th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 m\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y y\u00eau qu\u00fd nh\u1ea5t: c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. T\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ee9c<\/strong>, li\u00ean minh m\u1edbi g\u1ed3m \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, \u0110\u1ea3ng Xanh, v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea3ng T\u1ef1 do tr\u00fat b\u1ecf chi\u1ebfc \u00e1o cho\u00e0ng h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00ecnh: t\u1eebng ch\u1ec9 cung c\u1ea5p m\u0169 b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m cho Ukraine, gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y h\u1ecd \u0111ang g\u1ea5p r\u00fat g\u1eedi v\u0169 kh\u00ed ch\u1ed1ng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 v\u0169 kh\u00ed ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 c\u00f2n tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, sau khi \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n Nord Stream 2 \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ed1ng \u0111\u00e3 r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ee9c ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a Nga \u2013 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0110\u1ee9c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd \u0111ang \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng gi\u1eef c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y \u0111i\u1ec7n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, n\u1ebfu l\u00e0m v\u1eady l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tr\u00e1nh ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00eda b\u00ean kia l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba \u00c1-\u00c2u, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, Singapore, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Australia<\/strong> \u0111\u00e3 tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Nga. S\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u1edf Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt.<\/mark><\/strong> Trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp ni\u00ean qua, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00f4i k\u00e9o Nga kh\u00f4ng m\u1ec7t m\u1ecfi, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 v\u00ec hy v\u1ecdng gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 b\u1ed1n h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o ph\u00eda b\u1eafc b\u1ecb chi\u1ebfm t\u1eeb th\u1eddi Li\u00ean X\u00f4. C\u1ef1u th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Shinzo Abe \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eb7p Putin t\u1ed5ng c\u1ed9ng 27 l\u1ea7n, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t chuy\u1ebfn \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 t\u1eafm onsen. Nh\u01b0ng gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Kishida Fumio, Nh\u1eadt cho phong t\u1ecfa ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng Nga \u0111ang gi\u1eef t\u1ea1i n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc trung l\u1eadp n\u00ean c\u00f3 l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n c\u0169 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft th\u00fac c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd m\u1edf ra h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n. <\/strong>Nh\u01b0ng Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng Ukraine \u0111ang t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c m\u1edbi cho c\u00e1c kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra xung \u0111\u1ed9t trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. N\u00f3 \u0111ang l\u00e0m t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd b\u1ecb t\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1ecf kh\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c<\/mark>. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0a Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nhau h\u01a1n<\/mark>, n\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7t m\u1ed9t g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng m\u1edbi l\u00ean h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng li\u00ean minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1ed1n \u0111ang ph\u1ea7n n\u00e0o bao v\u00e2y hai n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. N\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0o b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba n\u00e0y s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u v\u00ec ch\u00fang. N\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, sau th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn 2, quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn nh\u1eefng vai tr\u00f2 chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u m\u1edbi. V\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa, n\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u0169 v\u1ec1 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u01b0a ai c\u00f3 \u0111\u1eb7t t\u00ean cho th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 h\u1eadu-h\u1eadu-Chi\u1ebfn-tranh-L\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng, nh\u1eefng b\u00f3ng ma c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a Qu\u1ed1c x\u00e3 \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean t\u1ee5c hi\u1ec7n v\u1ec1. <\/strong>Putin g\u1ee3i l\u1ea1i n\u1ed7i kinh ho\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn 2 khi c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c Zelensky, m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi Do Th\u00e1i, \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u201cQu\u1ed1c x\u00e3.\u201d Tuy nhi\u00ean, ch\u00ednh ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea7y b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Putin \u2013 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Gruzia n\u0103m 2008, giao tranh \u1edf mi\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f4ng Ukraine n\u0103m 2014, s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp Belarus tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u2013 m\u1edbi g\u1ee3i nh\u1edb nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn Hitler. \u0110i\u1ec3m gi\u1ed1ng nhau n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn Zelensky v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c g\u1ecdi th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1eb9 nh\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Putin l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u201cxoa d\u1ecbu.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cCh\u00fang t\u00f4i ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd th\u1ee9c d\u1eady v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1939,\u201d m\u1ed9t quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng cho bi\u1ebft ngay trong ng\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c. C\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 \u0111i\u1ec3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f9ng nhau g\u1ee3i nh\u1edb v\u1ec1 n\u0103m 1945, m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1i: c\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 suy t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Nga, ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ecb c\u00f4 l\u1eadp, xa r\u1eddi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n sai l\u1ea7m; vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n l\u1ea1i tr\u1edf n\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn m\u1ecdi th\u1ee9 qua l\u0103ng k\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn 2 l\u00e0m cho \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 Phe Tr\u1ee5c tr\u1edf n\u00ean t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean h\u01a1n \u2013 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd n\u00f3 h\u1eefu \u00edch h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u1ee9 g\u1ecdi t\u00ean m\u1eafng ch\u1eedi l\u1eabn nhau. Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Joe Biden v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u1eb1m th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u00ean ch\u1ebf khi\u1ebfn Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u1ea3i h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nghi ng\u1edd g\u00ec n\u1eefa, hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nhau h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1eabn ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, khi Putin \u0111\u1ea9y Nga \u0111i s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i. \u00d4ng v\u00e0 T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00f3 chung mong mu\u1ed1n h\u1ea1 g\u1ee5c M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u0169ng chia s\u1ebb n\u1ed7i kinh ho\u00e0ng v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra v\u1edbi Li\u00ean X\u00f4 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1991.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jude Blanchette thu\u1ed9c Trung t\u00e2m Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (CSIS), m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 hai nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c, nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd v\u1eabn h\u1eefu \u00edch cho nhau v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch b\u1edfi \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ee9ng \u201cd\u1ef1a l\u01b0ng\u201d c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi chung c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00ec c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u01b0\u1edbng ra b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i. Vi\u1ec7c Nga di chuy\u1ec3n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u1edbn qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i t\u1eeb v\u00f9ng vi\u1ec5n \u0111\u00f4ng sang Ukraine s\u1ebd t\u1ed3i t\u1ec7 h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u, n\u1ebfu n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00fa \u201cxoay tr\u1ee5c\u201d ban \u0111\u1ea7u<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u201cPhe Tr\u1ee5c\u201d m\u1edbi n\u00e0y, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 trong ch\u00fang ta b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia c\u0169, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eadp trung nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o c\u00e1c s\u1ef1 th\u1eadt v\u0129nh c\u1eedu c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00e0o t\u00ednh ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. Kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 cho l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i n\u00f3i chung, l\u00e0 \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 \u201cV\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t Trung t\u00e2m\u201d (Heartland) do Halford Mackinder \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1904. Mackinder l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 ai ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ph\u1ea7n trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba \u00c1-\u00c2u, t\u1ee9c kho\u1ea3ng gi\u1eefa Bi\u1ec3n B\u1eafc C\u1ef1c v\u00e0 d\u00e3y Himalaya, s\u1ebd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 huy th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/mark><\/strong> D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u00f3, vi\u1ec7c Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft v\u1edbi nhau s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i r\u1eafc r\u1ed1i l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn thay th\u1ebf cho l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a Mackinder l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba m\u00e0 t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u01a1ng, l\u1ea5y c\u1ea3m h\u1ee9ng t\u1eeb Alfred Thayer Mahan, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi v\u1edbi \u00f4ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi coi vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a cho s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. C\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c n\u1eefa l\u00e0 theo Nicholas Spykman<\/strong>, m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 khoa h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1942 r\u1eb1ng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t trung t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba \u00c1-\u00c2u m\u1edbi quan tr\u1ecdng, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 v\u00e0nh \u0111ai (rimland) c\u1ee7a n\u00f3. \u00d4ng cho r\u1eb1ng d\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5t ven bi\u1ec3n tr\u1ea3i d\u00e0i qua \u0110\u1ecba Trung H\u1ea3i, ch\u1ea1y d\u1ecdc ph\u00eda nam d\u00e3y Himalaya, xuy\u00ean qua \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u1ebfn Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u00e0 ch\u00eca kh\u00f3a. \u201cAi ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0nh \u0111ai s\u1ebd cai tr\u1ecb \u00c1-\u00c2u\u201d<\/mark><\/strong>, \u00f4ng vi\u1ebft. \u201cAi cai tr\u1ecb \u00c1-\u00c2u s\u1ebd ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c l\u00ean \u00e1n vi\u1ec7c Nga x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ukraine, ng\u00e0y 01\/03\/2022.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Michael Green<\/strong>, m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a CSIS, l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc t\u1eeb Spykman trong th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i. C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c x\u00edch l\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n nhau s\u1ebd cho ph\u00e9p h\u1ecd h\u1ee3p nh\u1ea5t c\u00e1c li\u00ean minh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1 th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n.<\/strong> V\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0nh \u0111ai \u2013 t\u1eeb Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ebfn Israel, c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u1edf V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 qu\u1ed1c gia \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u2013 \u0111ang l\u01b0\u1ee1ng l\u1ef1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Nga, m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng m\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Putin, hay \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 h\u01a1n th\u1ebf n\u1eefa. Ri\u00eang Syria th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi h\u1ecd \u0111ang c\u1ed5 v\u0169 Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u01b0\u1eddi trung l\u1eadp nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 02\/03, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu tr\u1eafng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c nh\u1eb1m l\u00ean \u00e1n cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Nga.<\/strong> N\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 h\u1eefu ngh\u1ecb l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi v\u1edbi Nga, qu\u1ed1c gia cung c\u1ea5p h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 cho h\u1ecd, v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p v\u1edbi M\u1ef9. <\/mark>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng quan ng\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u2013 hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 x\u1ea3y ra chi\u1ebfn tranh bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1962, v\u00e0 thi tho\u1ea3ng va ch\u1ea1m nhau k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2020 \u2013 khi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 r\u1eddi b\u1ecf Nga. Manjari Chatterjee Miller c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng Quan h\u1ec7 \u0110\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c cho bi\u1ebft, \u201c\u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t s\u1ee3i d\u00e2y, nh\u01b0ng nguy c\u01a1 t\u00e9 ng\u00e3 l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec3m g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c h\u1ecd mua t\u00ean l\u1eeda ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng S-400 t\u1eeb Nga b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i gay g\u1eaft c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c t\u00ean l\u1eeda s\u1edbm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai nh\u01b0 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t theo m\u1ed9t lu\u1eadt \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea1o lu\u1eadt Ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i K\u1ebb th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 th\u00f4ng qua Tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t (CAATSA). M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e2n v\u1eadt trong Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111ang th\u00fac gi\u1ee5c Biden t\u1eeb b\u1ecf c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef ch\u00e2n \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9. Nh\u01b0ng v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m M\u1ef9 \u0111ang t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u1eb1m c\u00f4 l\u1eadp Nga, vi\u1ec7c ch\u00e2m ch\u01b0\u1edbc cho m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f2n \u0111ang do d\u1ef1 tham gia chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f3 bi\u1ec7n minh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p thay th\u1ebf cho vi\u1ec7c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u00e0nh \u0111ai l\u00e0 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 v\u00f9ng trung t\u00e2m. Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1eebng c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t quan h\u1ec7 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1960, m\u1ed9t r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t m\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Richard Nixon \u0111\u00e3 khai th\u00e1c 50 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1edbi chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m l\u1ecbch s\u1eed t\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 1972. Tuy nhi\u00ean, chia r\u1ebd h\u1ecd l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ef1c kh\u00f3. M\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn b\u00e2y gi\u1edd m\u1edbi nh\u1eadn ra chi\u1ec1u s\u00e2u c\u1ee7a t\u00ecnh b\u1ea1n gi\u1eefa Putin v\u00e0 T\u1eadp. \u00d4ng n\u00f3i: \u201cNg\u01b0\u1eddi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga d\u00e0nh r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eddi gian tr\u00f2 chuy\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u1eb1m chia r\u1ebd h\u1ecd. N\u00f3 g\u1ea7n gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a hai th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean H\u1ed9i T\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u1ee3 Cai r\u01b0\u1ee3u \u1ea8n danh.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea5t n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a anh<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb M\u1ef9, T\u1eadp ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn kh\u00f4ng h\u00e0i l\u00f2ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n m\u00e0 Putin g\u00e2y ra \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00ecnh.<\/strong> Nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan. D\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n Putin th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, nh\u01b0ng gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 Putin \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb nh\u00fang ch\u00e0m v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c t\u00e0n s\u00e1t c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng ta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eadp c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111ang c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc li\u1ec7u \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a g\u00ec \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng d\u00e0nh cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan, l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh quy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed \u1edf m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00f2n cao h\u01a1n Nga \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Ukraine<\/strong>. Kanehara Nobukatsu, t\u1eebng l\u00e0 ph\u00f3 c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, n\u00f3i: \u201cN\u1ebfu Putin th\u1eafng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, T\u1eadp c\u0169ng s\u1ebd l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/mark><\/strong>\u201d Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga \u0111ang \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u1ea3i suy ngh\u0129 l\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh kh\u1ea3 thi c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c qua eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/strong> C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c M\u1ef9 hy v\u1ecdng l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch \u0111\u1ed5 d\u1ed3n v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda Nga, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u00f9n b\u01b0\u1edbc. H\u1ecd c\u0169ng \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh ch\u00e2u \u00c1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd bi\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi ch\u00e2u \u00c1, b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. V\u00e0i ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi chi\u1ebfn tranh b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 \u1edf Ukraine, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Biden \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y, Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Antony Blinken \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Australia, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi M\u1ef9 t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1ch tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n ch\u1edd th\u1eddi c\u01a1. Putin h\u1eb3n \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y th\u1eddi gian \u0111ang ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i \u00f4ng trong v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Ukraine: c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y v\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Ukraine \u0111ang d\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00ean, trong l\u00fac n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Nga b\u1ecb tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7. Toan t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp c\u00f3 v\u1ebb g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n. S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn m\u1ea1nh; nh\u01b0ng \u00fd th\u1ee9c v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc qu\u1ed1c gia ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u0169ng v\u1eady.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng Nga n\u1eafm gi\u1eef m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u00f9ng thu\u1ed9c Ukraine, ho\u1eb7c Trung Qu\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh b\u1ea1o chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ee3i \u00fd r\u1eb1ng k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi s\u1ebd b\u1edbt \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1eb7ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. H\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c coi tr\u1ecdng nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5; m\u1ed9t \u0111a s\u1ed1 \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o trong \u0110\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean \u00e1n Nga. Nh\u01b0 Martin Kimani, \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Kenya t\u1ea1i Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c, \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c tranh lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o an: nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00f4ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra t\u1eeb c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, \u1edf c\u00e1c bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi kh\u00f4ng do h\u1ecd l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u1ecd mong mu\u1ed1n s\u1ed1ng \u201ctheo c\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea9y ch\u00fang ta tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9c th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 \u00e1p b\u1ee9c m\u1edbi.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, d\u00f9 c\u01a1n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u1ea5n chi\u1ebfn tranh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, n\u00f3 v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd nh\u1ea5t \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. Cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea3o l\u1ed9n \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t l\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ecba \u201cto\u00e0n v\u1eb9n, t\u1ef1 do, v\u00e0 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh.\u201d Kyiv, t\u1eebng xa c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ebfn ngh\u00ecn tr\u00f9ng, nay g\u1ea7n g\u0169i \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u00f4ng ng\u1edd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Olaf Scholz, th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c, \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm b\u1eaft th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai, ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t s\u1ef1 mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc \u00f4ng trong vi\u1ec7c chi tr\u1ea3 cho m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang m\u1ea1nh, l\u1eabn ni\u1ec1m tin r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c mua kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t c\u1ee7a Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1i li\u00ean k\u1ebft \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc. Constanze Stelzenm\u00fcller c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Brookings n\u00f3i \u201c\u0110\u1ee9c l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u2018thu\u00ea ngo\u00e0i\u2019 (outsource) an ninh cho M\u1ef9, nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho Nga, v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u cho Trung Qu\u1ed1c.\u201d Vi\u1ec7c Scholz \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea3ng m\u00e0 trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1970, \u0111\u00e3 ti\u00ean phong trong Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0110\u00f4ng (Ostpolitik) \u2013 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn nh\u1eb9 nh\u00e0ng h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Li\u00ean X\u00f4\u2013 khi\u1ebfn cho \u201cthay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c\u201d c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng k\u1ef3 l\u1ea1, l\u00e0 l\u1ea1i h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u01a1n. Stelzenm\u00fcller n\u00f3i: \u201cCh\u1ec9 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y. \u0110\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 th\u1eddi kh\u1eafc Nixon-sang-Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a Scholz.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cam k\u1ebft m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ee9c s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a NATO hoan ngh\u00eanh. N\u1ebfu Ukraine th\u1ea5t th\u1ee7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nga \u1edf l\u1ea1i Belarus v\u00f4 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n, s\u01b0\u1eddn ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a NATO s\u1ebd b\u1ecb h\u1edf ra nhi\u1ec1u. M\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u201cH\u00e0ng lang Suwalki\u201d, m\u1ed9t d\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea5t h\u1eb9p l\u00e0 tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ed9 duy nh\u1ea5t n\u1ed1i ba qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00f9ng Baltic t\u1eebng b\u1ecb Li\u00ean X\u00f4 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng \u2013 Litva, Estonia v\u00e0 Latvia \u2013 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a NATO. \u1ede ph\u00eda t\u00e2y c\u1ee7a h\u00e0nh lang n\u00e0y l\u00e0 Kaliningrad, m\u1ed9t l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Nga tr\u00ean b\u1edd bi\u1ec3n Baltic, v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda \u0111\u00f4ng l\u00e0 Belarus. N\u1ebfu Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u00eau kh\u00edch NATO b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea5y v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t n\u00e0y, vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00f9ng Baltic s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 2016, NATO b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb r\u0103n \u0111e (tripwise forces) nh\u1ecf, \u0111a qu\u1ed1c gia \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Baltic v\u00e0 Ba Lan, theo \u0111\u00f3 khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Nga s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o NATO kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc m\u00e0 c\u00f2n tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb \u0111\u00f3 hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 n\u00f3i l\u00ean r\u1eb1ng, ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 ban \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p c\u1ee7a Nga \u1edf Ukraine c\u0169ng \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y NATO \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t. G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t, v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1, n\u0103m th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o an (\u201cP5\u201d) \u2013 trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 Nga \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 k\u00fd m\u1ed9t tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u201cph\u1ea3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7, r\u0103n \u0111e h\u00e0nh vi x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n chi\u1ebfn tranh\u201d. Nh\u01b0ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, Putin \u0111\u00e3 khua kho\u1eafng thanh ki\u1ebfm h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh ba l\u1ea7n ch\u1ec9 trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n: tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u00f4ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n; v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra v\u1ee5 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Ukraine, \u00f4ng n\u00f3i b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ai can thi\u1ec7p s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu \u201ch\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 h\u1ecd ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh\u201d; v\u00e0 ba ng\u00e0y sau, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nga tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng cao. C\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 \u00f4ng v\u1eabn s\u1ebd h\u00e0nh x\u1eed theo c\u00e1ch t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. Kanehara n\u00f3i: \u201c\u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u00e0i ki\u1ec3m tra \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u1ec1 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o P5 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t g\u00e3 b\u1ea5t h\u1ea3o, gi\u00e0 nua, \u0111i\u00ean r\u1ed3, c\u1ea7m trong tay v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n tin qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, \u201cLu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec7u [h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n] \u0111ang b\u1ecb l\u1ea1m d\u1ee5ng qu\u00e1 m\u1ee9c so v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ch\u00fang ta th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 th\u1ea5y tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ecba.\u201d Nh\u01b0ng t\u1ef1 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1. N\u1ebfu ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y b\u1ecb n\u00f3 l\u00e0m cho khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c, n\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng. N\u1ebfu ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng t\u1ecf r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c, r\u1ee7i ro s\u1ebd l\u1ea1i c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng th\u00eam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden \u0111\u00e3 quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u0169 kh\u00ed k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi \u00f4ng l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean tranh c\u1eed v\u00e0o Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n, c\u00f9ng n\u0103m m\u00e0 Nixon \u0111\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c. N\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 gia h\u1ea1n Hi\u1ec7p \u01b0\u1edbc Gi\u1ea3m tr\u1eeb V\u0169 kh\u00ed Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c M\u1edbi (New START), trong \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n vi\u1ec7c tri\u1ec3n khai c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Nga \u1edf m\u1ee9c 1.550 \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n cho m\u1ed7i b\u00ean. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng l\u00f4i k\u00e9o Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u0169 kh\u00ed. V\u00e0 \u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 n\u00ean chuy\u1ec3n sang m\u1ed9t h\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \u201cm\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch duy nh\u1ea5t\u201d c\u1ee7a v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 v\u1ebb kh\u00f3 x\u1ea3y ra. Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang nhanh ch\u00f3ng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ea1n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Theo t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ee7a L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c, con s\u1ed1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf m\u1ee9c h\u01a1n 200 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t 1.000 ho\u1eb7c h\u01a1n v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh \u0111\u00e3 v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ec3 M\u1ef9 duy tr\u00ec \u201ckh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng,\u201d qua \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u1ecf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i. M\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1eeb Nga mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn m\u1edbi m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd. Abe n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n n\u00ean ngh\u0129 \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c cho tri\u1ec3n khai v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ee9c. \u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1edbn so v\u1edbi \u201cba nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc phi h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n\u201d l\u00e2u \u0111\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt: kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, kh\u00f4ng s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng cho ph\u00e9p tri\u1ec3n khai v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1edbi, \u1edf m\u1ed9t m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng g\u00ec di\u1ec5n ra \u1edf Ukraine. James Acton c\u1ee7a Qu\u1ef9 Carnegie v\u00ec H\u00f2a b\u00ecnh Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf cho bi\u1ebft: \u201cN\u1ebfu l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a Putin \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n h\u01a1n n\u1eefa. N\u1ebfu l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda n\u00e0y cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 h\u00f2 h\u00e9t su\u00f4ng, v\u00ec v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, th\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn v\u0169 kh\u00ed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u1ed7i lo v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n d\u00f9 chi\u1ebfn tranh k\u1ebft th\u00fac nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. M\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga b\u1ecb th\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u01b0ng chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch \u0111e d\u1ecda NATO h\u01a1n n\u1eefa; m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga sa l\u1ea7y b\u1edfi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mu\u1ed1n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 trang b\u1ecb m\u00e1y bay chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u cho Ukraine; m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd tr\u00e0n ng\u1eadp b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n.<\/mark><\/strong> Thomas Wright c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7n Brookings ghi nh\u1eadn, nh\u1eefng n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh ch\u1ee9a \u0111\u1ea7y nguy hi\u1ec3m \u2013 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c phong t\u1ecfa T\u00e2y Berlin n\u0103m 1948-1949 c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4, \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda Cuba n\u0103m 1962 <\/mark><\/strong>\u2013 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u00f2a ho\u00e3n mang l\u1ea1i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cao h\u01a1n. Nh\u01b0 Wright \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra, \u201cCh\u00fang ta \u0111ang s\u1ed1ng trong kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi, v\u00e0 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ea7u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 r\u1ea5t nguy hi\u1ec3m.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Economist<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2022\/03\/08\/cuoc-chien-o-ukraine-se-thay-doi-sau-sac-tinh-hinh-dia-chinh-tri\/#more-44192<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: The war in Ukraine is going to change geopolitics profoundly,  The Economist, 05\/03\/2022 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng C\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u quen thu\u1ed9c, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7. Th\u1ee9 S\u00e1u ng\u00e0y 25\/02, m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y sau khi cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Nga b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, Volodymyr Zelensky, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12],"tags":[165,118,212,284,289],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-13630","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-nga","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13630","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13630"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13630\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/13631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13630"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13630"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13630"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}