{"id":14424,"date":"2022-06-21T00:22:17","date_gmt":"2022-06-21T00:22:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=14424"},"modified":"2022-06-21T00:22:19","modified_gmt":"2022-06-21T00:22:19","slug":"dieu-gi-se-xay-ra-neu-ukraine-thang","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=14424","title":{"rendered":"\u0110i\u1ec1u g\u00ec s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu Ukraine th\u1eafng?<\/strong>
Liana Fix v\u00e0 Michael Kimmage<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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_________________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong>\u00a0Liana Fix v\u00e0 Michael Kimmage, \u201cWhat If Ukraine Wins?\u201d,\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em>, 06\/06\/2022<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap Ukraine ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Nga.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Ukraine \u1edf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u lo l\u1eafng r\u1eb1ng th\u1ebf tr\u1eadn \u0111ang c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho Nga. Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t ph\u00e1o k\u00edch d\u1eef d\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap Nga gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00eam nhi\u1ec1u l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c Donbas, mi\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f4ng Ukraine, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng m\u1edbi \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01a1i. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Ukraine d\u1ea7n ki\u1ec7t qu\u1ec7. Nga \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng \u2018chuy\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ed3i\u2019 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a tham v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh th\u00f4ng qua \u201ch\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfu h\u00f3a\u201d \u2013 nhanh ch\u00f3ng c\u1ea5p h\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfu Nga cho c\u00f4ng d\u00e2n Ukraine \u1edf c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c do Nga chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng \u2013 v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng b\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0a c\u00e1c c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u h\u00e0nh ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0o l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Ukraine. \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng v\u00f4 th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n mi\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n nam Ukraine, r\u1ed3i cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi Odessa, m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 c\u1ea3ng l\u1edbn \u1edf mi\u1ec1n nam Ukraine, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0 trung t\u00e2m th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i k\u1ebft n\u1ed1i Ukraine v\u1edbi th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o b\u1ee9c tranh to\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh, t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Moscow kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1i s\u00e1ng. Danh s\u00e1ch c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh t\u00edch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Ukraine \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i d\u00e0i th\u00eam. L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng t\u1ea1i Kyiv; b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 mi\u1ec1n nam Mykolaiv, gi\u1eef cho Odessa kh\u1ecfi t\u1ea7m tay c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed9i qu\u00e2n x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, ch\u00ed \u00edt l\u00e0 trong l\u00fac n\u00e0y; v\u00e0 th\u1eafng th\u1ebf trong tr\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1nh \u1edf Kharkiv, th\u00e0nh ph\u1ed1 n\u1eb1m ngay bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u1edbi Nga. Nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a Nga v\u1eabn k\u00e9m xa nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh t\u00edch n\u00e0y. V\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u1edf Kyiv c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi tinh th\u1ea7n tuy\u1ec7t v\u1eddi v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf ra con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng cho Ukraine. N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ukraine gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u00e0y, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a Kyiv s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng cao. S\u1ef1 th\u1eadt l\u00e0, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n th\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea5y trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh, Ukraine v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng sau c\u00f9ng \u2013d\u00f9 ph\u1ea1m vi v\u00e0 quy m\u00f4 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1ea5t cho Ukraine s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cchi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf.\u201d Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ee5c xu\u1ea5t Nga kh\u1ecfi b\u1edd t\u00e2y s\u00f4ng Dnieper, thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp v\u00e0nh \u0111ai ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 xung quanh c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c do qu\u00e2n Nga ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u1edf mi\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n nam Ukraine, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o quy\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn Bi\u1ec3n \u0110en. D\u1ea7n d\u1ea7n, c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn l\u00ean, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 h\u00e0nh lang \u0111\u1ea5t li\u1ec1n m\u00e0 Nga \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp t\u1edbi Crimea, v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t \u1edf \u0111\u00f4ng nam Ukraine m\u00e0 Nga \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014. V\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi Nga ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 2.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e2y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u201cthay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y m\u01a1 \u01b0\u1edbc. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00f9i m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng lan t\u1ecfa ra kh\u1eafp khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u2013 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng kh\u00e1ng chi\u1ebfn th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc k\u1ebb x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00f9ng m\u1ea1nh l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 thi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, c\u0169ng c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u201cth\u1eafng l\u1edbn\u201d, trong \u0111\u00f3 chi\u1ebfn tranh k\u1ebft th\u00fac ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n theo nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ukraine \u0111\u1ec1 ra. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea1i ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n tr\u00ean to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Ukraine, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 Crimea v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Donbas \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb Nga chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 2. K\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y \u00edt c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, b\u1edfi t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng kh\u00f3 h\u01a1n ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7, v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ea7n chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1edbn, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u0169 trang r\u1ea5t v\u1eefng ch\u1eafc. Ch\u00ed \u00edt th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga s\u1ebd t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef Crimea. Khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y l\u00e0 n\u01a1i \u0111\u00f3ng qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a H\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i Bi\u1ec3n \u0110en c\u1ee7a Nga, v\u00e0 l\u00e0 bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y sau khi Li\u00ean X\u00f4 tan r\u00e3. T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nga Vladimir Putin s\u1ebd kh\u00f3 l\u00f2ng ch\u1ecbu bu\u00f4ng b\u1ecf Crimea m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn d\u1eef d\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a Ukraine l\u00e0 g\u00ec, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111i k\u00e8m m\u1ed9t \u201cng\u00e0y sau\u201d \u0111\u1ea7y m\u01a1 h\u1ed3. Nga s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00ednh c\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ebf. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng n\u00e0o c\u1ee7a Ukraine c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 khi\u1ebfn Nga th\u00eam c\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u h\u01a1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Ngay khi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, Nga s\u1ebd s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n b\u1ecb s\u1ec9 nh\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 khu\u1ea5y \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c m\u1edbi nh\u1eb1m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t Ukraine. D\u00f9 c\u00f3 thua trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, Putin c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bu\u00f4ng tha Ukraine. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ecbu ng\u1ed3i y\u00ean m\u1ed9t ch\u1ed7 nh\u00ecn Ukraine h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u1edbi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a Ukraine \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 cam k\u1ebft m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u1ecfng l\u1ebbo h\u01a1n, t\u1eeb ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng ti\u1ec1n x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, Ukraine s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i l\u1eb7p l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u1edf mi\u1ec1n b\u1eafc c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd t\u1ea1i mi\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f4ng v\u00e0 mi\u1ec1n nam. T\u1ea1i Kyiv v\u00e0 Kharkiv, l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c qu\u00e2n Nga ph\u1ea3i r\u00fat lui chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt. S\u1ebd kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i nh\u01b0 Kherson v\u00e0 Mariupol, c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c thu\u1ed9c l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 do Nga ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u1ebd \u0111ang x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7. Nh\u01b0ng Ukraine c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf v\u1ec1 ngu\u1ed3n nh\u00e2n l\u1ef1c d\u1ef1 b\u1ecb l\u1edbn, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c t\u1ed1t v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 huy t\u1ed1t, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 nghi ng\u1edd g\u00ec v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ukraine. B\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Nga \u0111\u00e3 kh\u01a1i d\u1eady \u00fd ch\u00ed chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft cho binh l\u00ednh Ukraine. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 h\u01a1n n\u1eefa n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ukraine c\u0169ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 n\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u2013 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 M\u1ef9. Kyiv c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n truy c\u1eadp th\u00f4ng tin t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o h\u1ea1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 th\u1ebf tr\u1eadn c\u1ee7a l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nga. Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Ukraine nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n khi\u1ebfn Nga ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eaft, t\u1eeb g\u00e2y th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1, \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t v\u00e0 thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 v\u1eadt ch\u1ea5t. N\u1ebfu Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p h\u1ecfa l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 nh\u00e2n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0o m\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u00e0y, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3n c\u00f4ng \u1edf Donbas v\u00e0 xuy\u00ean th\u1ee7ng h\u00e0nh lang tr\u00ean b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Nga t\u1edbi Crimea.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Nga \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng kh\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n c\u00f3 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, bao g\u1ed3m ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn kh\u00ed t\u00e0i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea1n d\u01b0\u1ee3c (d\u00f9 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tri\u1ec3n khai). V\u00ed d\u1ee5 d\u1ec5 th\u1ea5y nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 minh ch\u1ee9ng cho s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7t qu\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nga l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00ednh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e1nh ch\u1ecbu thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Tinh th\u1ea7n chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a l\u00ednh Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1eabn cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c quan s\u00e1t vi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1. Tuy nhi\u00ean, v\u00ec nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng, tinh th\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n h\u1eb3n tinh th\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ukraine. Nga \u0111ang chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn m\u00e0 h\u1ecd t\u1ef1 ch\u1ecdn. S\u1ef1 suy \u0111\u1ed3i v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nga \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf h\u1ecd. \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi l\u00ednh Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, Nga \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n, t\u1eebng b\u01b0\u1edbc tri\u1ec7u t\u1eadp l\u00ednh d\u1ef1 b\u1ecb v\u00e0 chuy\u00ean nghi\u1ec7p trong khi v\u1eabn tr\u00e1nh k\u00eau g\u1ecdi nh\u1eadp ng\u0169 h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t. H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y s\u1ebd c\u00f3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn tranh<\/strong>. Putin v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ebfn ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n huy \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e0n d\u00e2n, ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn tranh to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t huy to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Nga. Nh\u01b0ng vi\u1ec7c huy \u0111\u1ed9ng, hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n, v\u00e0 di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1eadt d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec1u c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 th\u1eddi gian. M\u1ea5u ch\u1ed1t trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Ukraine l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i x\u00e1c l\u1eadp th\u1ebf tr\u1eadn r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng tr\u00ean chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng, v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u1ebf tr\u1eadn \u0111\u00f3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean qu\u00e1 cao \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u1ea5y s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a Ukraine trong v\u00f2ng 2 \u0111\u1ebfn 3 th\u00e1ng t\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0y sau<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau c\u00f9ng, s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn Moscow ti\u1ebft ch\u1ebf c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u1ea3 thi.<\/strong> Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n c\u00f3 l\u1ebd n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Putin. Nga \u0111ang coi c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ea5t m\u00e0 h\u1ecd chi\u1ebfm gi\u1eef kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 l\u00e1 b\u00e0i m\u1eb7c c\u1ea3 cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, m\u00e0 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 l\u00e0 l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 Nga. V\u00e0 theo c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o Nga Andrei Soldatov v\u00e0 Irina Borogan, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi theo \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin mu\u1ed1n chi\u1ebfn tranh nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n \u2013 ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u00edt h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec v\u1eady, Ukraine v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y n\u00ean tin r\u1eb1ng Nga s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i n\u00e0o. M\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Ukraine, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n l\u00e0 v\u00e0o m\u00f9a thu n\u0103m nay, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfp b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Nga v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023<\/mark><\/strong>. Nga s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n t\u00e1i c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c do c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Putin, \u0111i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 vi\u1ec7c chinh ph\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh \u00f4ng, v\u00ec nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i thua cu\u1ed9c trong chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ebft th\u00fac trong c\u1ea3nh kh\u1ed1n c\u00f9ng.<\/mark> Putin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u1ea3i t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00f9i v\u1ec1 v\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, nh\u01b0ng \u00f4ng tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ea5t Ukraine v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n. \u00d4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u \u1edf quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ecf, t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 oanh t\u1ea1c t\u1eeb tr\u00ean kh\u00f4ng cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi qu\u00e2n ti\u1ebfp vi\u1ec7n \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p th\u00f4ng qua huy \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ho\u1eb7c to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 \u2013 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u01a1i. Ngo\u00e0i ra, Putin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00e2u gi\u1edd cho c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n thi\u1ebfu thi\u1ec7n ch\u00ed, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u0111\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Nga trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, Ukraine c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i y\u00eau c\u1ea7u trang b\u1ecb nhi\u1ec1u v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft. \u0110\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u1edbi y\u00eau c\u1ea7u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd g\u00e2y kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n cho c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, v\u00ec Nga s\u1ebd t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, v\u00e0 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn chia \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1ecb nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd v\u1eabn th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0m v\u1edbi Washington v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o an ninh cho Ukraine \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 trung l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. Nh\u01b0ng Nga c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m tra l\u1eddi h\u1ee9a \u0111\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1edbi \u2013 v\u00e0 n\u1ebfu ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, th\u00ec \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh t\u1eeb t\u1eeb. V\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga c\u1ee7a Putin, c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u201ckh\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 c\u1ea7n x\u00e1c minh\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 ngay c\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Ukraine c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i k\u00e8m m\u1ed9t l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n t\u1eeb Putin. Putin \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1ch m\u00ecnh kh\u1ecfi ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 t\u1eeb th\u1eddi Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u00e0o l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb thay v\u00ec ch\u1ec9 d\u00f9ng v\u00e0o l\u00fd do li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/mark> Nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 tr\u00f2 kho\u00e1c l\u00e1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh leo thang. \u0110\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn k\u1ebb th\u00f9 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ra l\u1ec7nh chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt cho kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y n\u00ean ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda nh\u01b0 v\u1eady b\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 r\u0103n \u0111e, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng Putin s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00ec th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n. N\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng v\u00e0 Putin v\u1eabn hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, th\u00ec NATO n\u00ean xem x\u00e9t m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nga \u1edf Ukraine ho\u1eb7c trong ch\u00ednh n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga. Trong khi ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y c\u1ea7n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t li\u00ean minh r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00ean \u00e1n v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch li\u00ean k\u1ebft c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a v\u1edbi h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u201cb\u00ean mi\u1ec7ng h\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n\u201d c\u1ee7a Putin. Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng tham gia, nh\u01b0ng v\u00ec lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ngay c\u1ea3 khi Ukraine th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf, Kyiv v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m xung \u0111\u1ed9t ti\u1ebfp theo sau \u0111\u00f3. Zelensky \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea9n \u00fd v\u1ec1 chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y khi n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng Ukraine th\u1eddi h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn s\u1ebd gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi Israel \u1edf m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m: ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 to\u00e0n th\u1eddi gian.<\/mark><\/strong> Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Putin s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u0103m d\u00f2 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y: c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i xa \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c nh\u01b0 khi \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch can thi\u1ec7p v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 n\u0103m 2016, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1ea1ng, th\u00f4ng tin sai l\u1ec7ch, v\u00e0 \u201cc\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p t\u00edch c\u1ef1c,\u201d nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch g\u00e2y thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3ng ph\u00e1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o m\u00e0 Nga kh\u00f4ng \u01b0a, ph\u00e1 ho\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u201cch\u1ed1ng Nga\u201d, v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy gi\u1ea3m t\u00ednh to\u00e0n v\u1eb9n c\u1ee7a li\u00ean minh xuy\u00ean \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c li\u00ean minh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y s\u1ebd bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf Nga trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n. Suy cho c\u00f9ng, ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn Nga t\u1eeb b\u00ean trong, ngo\u00e0i vi\u1ec7c hy v\u1ecdng v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u00edt hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Khi x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u201cth\u1eafng nh\u1ecf\u201d, vi\u1ec7c \u201cth\u1eafng l\u1edbn\u201d c\u1ee7a Ukraine \u2013 gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea1i Crimea v\u00e0 to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 Donbas \u2013 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb l\u00e0 con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eaft d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p h\u01a1n. D\u00f9 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n l\u00e0 b\u1ea5t kh\u1ea3 thi, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u \u0111i\u1ec1u may m\u1eafn th\u00ec Nga m\u1edbi h\u1ee9ng ch\u1ecbu m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1: Ukraine gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng ch\u1edbp nho\u00e1ng, h\u1ebft tr\u1eadn n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ebfn tr\u1eadn kia, trong khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2y ti\u1ebfp vi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Nga tan r\u00e3 th\u00ec tinh th\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a Ukraine d\u00e2ng cao, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y binh l\u00ednh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng ti\u1ebfn v\u1ec1 ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nga s\u1ebd v\u1ed9i v\u00e3 r\u00fat lui. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn s\u1ebd nh\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ed7 cho c\u1ea3m x\u00fac c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a binh s\u0129 trong l\u00fac ho\u1ea3ng lo\u1ea1n. Kh\u00f4ng ai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y hay h\u01a1n Leo Tolstoy trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00e0 H\u00f2a b\u00ecnh<\/em>, t\u00e1c ph\u1ea9m suy ng\u1eabm v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u00f4 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh. \u201cTrong m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadn \u0111\u00e1nh, k\u1ebb th\u1eafng cu\u1ed9c l\u00e0 k\u1ebb c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng,\u201d Tolstoy vi\u1ebft v\u1ec1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i n\u0103m 1805 c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Nga tr\u01b0\u1edbc Napol\u00e9on. Th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Nga, theo \u00f4ng, \u201cc\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Ph\u00e1p, nh\u01b0ng ch\u00fang t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1edbm t\u1ef1 nh\u1ee7 r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 thua tr\u1eadn n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 th\u1ebf l\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i thua th\u1eadt.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Ukraine tr\u01b0\u1edbc Nga, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 vi\u1ec7c chi\u1ebfm l\u1ea1i Crimea, ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng. S\u1ebd l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 l\u1ea1c quan n\u1ebfu x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Ukraine ho\u1eb7c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Theo \u0111u\u1ed5i n\u00f3 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn b\u01b0\u1edbc sang m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi. Sau khi \u0111\u1ed5 h\u00e0ng t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la v\u00e0o ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Crimea, m\u1ed9t bi\u1ec3u t\u01b0\u1ee3ng cho s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Nga, Moscow s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Ukraine v\u00e0o Crimea l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Nga, \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 Moscow s\u1ebd c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n b\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi gi\u00e1. Gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft r\u1eb1ng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a Nga s\u1ebd gi\u00fap ch\u1eefa tr\u1ecb c\u0103n b\u1ec7nh \u201cung th\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c\u201d trong gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t ph\u00e9p so s\u00e1nh v\u1ee5ng v\u1ec1 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng v\u00f4 \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n trong Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb mong mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n t\u1eeb c\u1ea3 hy v\u1ecdng ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n Nga b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i xa r\u1eddi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng nh\u1ecf cho Ukraine l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf h\u01a1n v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n. Nh\u1eafm \u0111\u1ebfn k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4n ngoan h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u01a1 t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a Nga \u2013 v\u00e0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f4n ngoan h\u01a1n nh\u1eefng \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00f4ng n\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1eb7t Kherson v\u00e0 Mariupol d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n c\u1ee7a Nga, t\u01b0\u1edfng th\u01b0\u1edfng cho s\u1ef1 hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Putin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Ukraine v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 an ninh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng cho Ukraine<\/strong>. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Kyiv \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i th\u1ecfa hi\u1ec7p v\u1ec1 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a Ukraine. Nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i suy ngh\u0129 th\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e1o v\u1ec1 \u201cng\u00e0y sau\u201d khi Ukraine chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng. Thay v\u00ec nu\u00f4i d\u01b0\u1ee1ng hy v\u1ecdng l\u1ea1 th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1eb1ng Nga s\u1ebd c\u00fai \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a Ukraine, ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 r\u1eddi kh\u1ecfi ch\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, an ninh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng cho Ukraine s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi s\u1ef1 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng ng\u1eebng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh c\u1ea9n tr\u1ecdng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00fang ngay c\u1ea3 khi \u2013 hay, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u2013 khi Ukraine th\u1eafng. N\u0103m 1947, nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao M\u1ef9 George Kennan, trong l\u00fac c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1ch h\u00e0nh x\u1eed c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean X\u00f4, \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, v\u00e0 \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng suy ngh\u0129 ch\u1ec9 b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01a1n v\u1ecb n\u0103m, m\u00e0 b\u1eb1ng h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c n\u0103m. \u0110\u1ec3 ki\u00ean tr\u00ec v\u00e0 gi\u00e0nh \u01b0u th\u1ebf \u1edf Ukraine, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y ng\u00e0y nay c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0m nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. Nh\u01b0 Tolstoy \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i, \u201chai chi\u1ebfn binh m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2022\/06\/20\/dieu-gi-se-xay-ra-neu-ukraine-thang\/#more-46206<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0Liana Fix v\u00e0 Michael Kimmage, \u201cWhat If Ukraine Wins?\u201d,\u00a0Foreign Affairs, 06\/06\/2022 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng Chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap Ukraine ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Nga. Trong nh\u1eefng ng\u00e0y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Ukraine \u1edf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":12757,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9,53],"tags":[398,165,118,212,190,284,289],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-14424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-au-chau","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-hoi-luan","tag-nga","tag-ukraine"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14424\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12757"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}