{"id":16872,"date":"2023-05-02T07:10:36","date_gmt":"2023-05-02T07:10:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=16872"},"modified":"2023-06-03T05:32:20","modified_gmt":"2023-06-03T05:32:20","slug":"tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-2023vndirect-55oxford-economics-42","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=16872","title":{"rendered":"T\u0103ng Tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam 2023:
VNDIRECT: 5,5%
OXFORD ECONOMICS: 4,2%<\/strong>
-Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 22 n\u0103m qua, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 FDI v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c suy y\u1ebfu; nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh \u201cm\u0169i nh\u1ecdn\u201d xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e2m, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u1ea5t \u0110\u1ed9ng S\u1ea3n (B\u0110S) ch\u01b0a tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. . . Do c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u00e0y, c\u00f4ng ty Ch\u1ee9ng Kho\u00e1n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u Vi\u1ec7t Nam, VNdirect Securities Corporation (VNDIRECT) d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2023 ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 5,5%, gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean 31% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, nh\u01b0ng v\u1edbi Oxford Economics th\u00ec GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m nay ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 4,2% th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i ng\u00f3t 50%. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, Qu\u1ed1c H\u1ed9i v\u1edbi s\u1ed1 phi\u1ebfu 465\/466 \u0111\u00f2i ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP n\u0103m 2023 ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea1t 6,5%; GDP b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 4.400 M\u1ef9 kim.<\/em>[1]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1eb7c d\u1ea7u th\u1eddi gian giao h\u00e0ng t\u1eeb nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n nhanh nh\u1ea5t trong h\u01a1n 8 n\u0103m qua, nh\u01b0ng nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb7t h\u00e0ng m\u1edbi v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m l\u1ea1i gi\u1ea3m, \u0111\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam do S&P Global theo d\u00f5i v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u00e3 tu\u1ed9t xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 47,7 trong th\u00e1ng 3, gi\u1ea3m so v\u1edbi 51,2 \u0111i\u1ec3m so v\u1edbi th\u00e1ng 2 v\u00e0 n\u1eb1m d\u01b0\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1ee1ng 50 \u0111i\u1ec3m trung b\u00ecnh l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 4 trong 5 th\u00e1ng qua.<\/p>\n\n\n

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B\u1ed9 K\u1ebf Ho\u1ea1ch v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ea7u T\u01b0 (KH-\u0110T) nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn, t\u00ednh t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2001 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Index of Industrial Production (IIP) trong c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng. Ch\u1ec9 2 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u01b0 d\u1ec7t may, \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, \u0111\u1ed3 g\u1ed7 v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat, ri\u00eang ng\u00e0nh thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean 50%. T\u00ednh chung 2 th\u00e1ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p IIP gi\u1ea3m 6,3% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc, ri\u00eang c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p ch\u1ebf bi\u1ebfn gi\u1ea3m 6,9%. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0y l\u00e0 l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i t\u1ea1i sao m\u1edbi 3 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 60.241 doanh nghi\u1ec7p r\u00fat lui kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c di\u1ec5n ra khi\u1ebfn cho Oxford Economics d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 4,2% trong n\u0103m 2023, gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng 8% c\u1ee7a n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i. [2]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng gi\u1ea3m 13,6%, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Ri\u00eang nguy\u00ean v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u mua v\u00e0o cho khu v\u1ef1c t\u00e1i ch\u1ebf xu\u1ea5t, l\u00e0 l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c \u201cm\u1ea1nh\u201d c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t nam c\u0169ng suy gi\u1ea3m. Hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y l\u1ea1c quan v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n. C\u00f9ng l\u00fac, l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c B\u0110S Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 t\u1edbi 1.800 c\u00f4ng ty ng\u01b0ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong qu\u00fd 1\/2023, v\u00ec s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 b\u00e1n ra gi\u1ea3m t\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u00f4m m\u00f9ng 03 th\u00e1ng 4, Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh t\u1eeb 0,3-0,5%\/n\u0103m. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi nh\u1edd \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 gi\u1ea3m, NHNN \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i th\u00eam kho\u1ea3ng 800 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 kim trong tu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a th\u00e1ng 4\/2023, n\u00e2ng t\u1ed5ng d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i l\u00ean kho\u1ea3ng 92 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng Fed k\u1ebft th\u00fac chu k\u1ef3 t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2023, th\u00ec l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u1edfi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 12 th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng 7,0% n\u1ed9i n\u0103m nay. V\u00e0o gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 4, m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t g\u1edfi ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m cao nh\u1ea5t cho k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 6 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 12 th\u00e1ng l\u00e0 8,8%\/n\u0103m. Trong khi c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 13 – 36 th\u00e1ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u01b0\u1edfng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 9,2% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t vay t\u00edn ch\u1ea5p ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb 10 – 16%\/n\u0103m. Khi h\u1ebft \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i, c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u1eeb 16 – 25%\/n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Hi\u1ec7n nay, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho doanh nghi\u1ec7p vay s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t dao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 10 – 10,5% m\u1ed9t n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 6 th\u00e1ng v\u00e0 11 – 12% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m v\u1edbi k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 12 th\u00e1ng, trong khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng hay cho vay mua nh\u00e0 \u1edf kho\u1ea3ng 14% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 2% l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t d\u00e0nh cho doanh nghi\u1ec7p, h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c x\u00e3, x\u00ed nghi\u1ec7p nh\u1ecf gia \u0111\u00ecnh \u0111ang \u201c\u0111\u1ed9i s\u1ed5\u201d v\u1ec1 t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, ch\u1ec9 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 330 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 0,83% trong k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 40.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. B\u1ed9 KH-\u0110T l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u00e1, \u201ck\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 tri\u1ec3n khai r\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p\u201d, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft n\u0103m 2023 ch\u1ec9 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 2.570 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, c\u00f2n kho\u1ea3ng 37.430 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u201cv\u1eabn n\u1eb1m trong kho\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i, ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i quy m\u00f4 347.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng tri\u1ec3n khai trong 2 n\u0103m 2022 \u2013 2023, nh\u01b0ng t\u1edbi nay qu\u00e1 n\u1eeda th\u1eddi gian th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, m\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 27,5% t\u1ed5ng ngu\u1ed3n ti\u1ec1n d\u1ef1 tr\u00f9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo T\u1ed5ng C\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng K\u00ea, nhu c\u1ea7u t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng suy y\u1ebfu v\u00ec doanh nghi\u1ec7p h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh do lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u1ea3m \u0111\u1ea1m. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 28\/3\/2023, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng 2,06% so v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 5,97% c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay \u0111ang tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng, g\u00e2y lo ng\u1ea1i cho kh\u1ed1i Ng\u00e2n H\u00e0ng Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i (NHTM). \u0110\u1ec3 m\u1edf \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u201ctho\u00e1t th\u00e2n\u201d, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Sacombank cho bi\u1ebft, \ufefft\u1eeb 24\/4 s\u1ebd d\u00e0nh 5.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng tri\u1ec3n khai ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh cho vay mua nh\u00e0 v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i 10,68% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m cho k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 30 n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1ec1 ph\u00eda qu\u1ed1c doanh g\u1ed3m 4 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng: Vietcombank, VietinBank, BIDV, Agribank tri\u1ec3n khai g\u00f3i t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng 120.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng cho vay nh\u00e0 \u1edf x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i. L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay trong th\u1eddi gian \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 1,5 – 2% m\u1ed7i n\u0103m so v\u1edbi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cho vay trung, d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cho vay d\u1ec5 d\u00e3i v\u00e0 ph\u00e2n l\u1eddi gi\u1ea3m, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb NHNN cho th\u1ea5y, t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng to\u00e0n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 24 th\u00e1ng 2 \u0111ang kh\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i, m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t 0,77%, ch\u01b0a b\u1eb1ng 1\/3 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2022. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng cho l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2\/2023 \u0111\u1ea1t h\u01a1n 2,6 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng; t\u0103ng 2,19% so v\u1edbi cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m 2022 (2,58 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng). Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, trong 2 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, quy m\u00f4 d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng th\u00eam 20.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng c\u1ee5c Th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea, trong 4 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam gi\u1ea3m 12% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 n\u0103m 2022, v\u00e0 m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh 20% ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a n\u0103m 2023. Nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed, d\u1ec7t may, da gi\u00e0y, s\u1eaft th\u00e9p, g\u1ed7 \u0111\u00e3 ghi nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e2m. <\/strong>[3]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u1ed1i Ph\u00e2n T\u00edch thu\u1ed9c c\u00f4ng ty VNDIRECT h\u1ed3i h\u1ea1 tu\u1ea7n th\u00e1ng 4 \u0111\u00e3d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o xu\u1ea5t nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2023 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e2m 2% v\u00e0 3%.<\/strong>[4]<\/sup><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4\/2023, Reuters cho bi\u1ebft, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ec7nh c\u1ea5m nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u bao g\u1ed3m b\u00f4ng v\u1ea3i \u1edf v\u00f9ng T\u00e2n C\u01b0\u01a1ng, Hoa L\u1ee5c. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t h\u00e0ng d\u1ec7t may v\u00e0 gi\u00e0y th\u1ec3 thao c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam. Theo Reuter, h\u01a1n 80% h\u00e0ng di\u1ec7t may \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb Vi\u1ec7t Nam m\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng quan kho\u1ea3ng 13% tu\u1ea7n l\u1ec5 \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 4. Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p M\u1ef9 xem x\u00e9t l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c h\u00e0ng di\u1ec7t may nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o M\u1ef9 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 27 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 Kim \u201cc\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111au \u0111\u1edbn h\u01a1n cho Vi\u1ec7t Nam\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb B\u1ed9 KH-\u0110T t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 4 cho bi\u1ebft, c\u00f3 77 qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam v\u1edbi t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3m 17,9%. Trong \u0111\u00f3, Singapore d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 g\u1ea7n 2,2 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim, chi\u1ebfm h\u01a1n 24,7% t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o Vi\u1ec7t Nam, gi\u1ea3m 29,5% so v\u1edbi c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Do k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 kinh doanh k\u00e9m kh\u1ea3 quan trong Qu\u00fd I\/2023 c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi t\u00e2m l\u00fd \u201cr\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1m\u201d c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, VN-Index m\u1ea5t g\u1ea7n 10 \u0111i\u1ec3m sau 5 phi\u00ean giao d\u1ecbch xu\u1ed1ng 1.043 \u0111i\u1ec3m, m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t trong 4 tu\u1ea7n g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y. Giao d\u1ecbch kh\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y t\u00edch c\u1ef1c khi ghi nh\u1eadn b\u00e1n r\u00f2ng 337 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng (27\/04). Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1m th\u1eddi d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u0103ng gi\u00e1 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n; ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u201cnh\u00ec nh\u1eb1ng\u201d dao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong bi\u00ean \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1eb9p 1.030-1.060 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1edbi thanh kho\u1ea3n \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 tr\u00ean d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ea5t thu v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ebfn 50% ch\u1ec9 trong B\u0110S v\u00e0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n. Nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP n\u0103m 2023 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n tr\u00f4ng v\u00e0o t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng (\u0110TC). N\u1ebfu csVN gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 100% v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng (\u0110TC) l\u00e0 700.000 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 30 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim, d\u1ef1 tr\u00f9 \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n Kinh T\u1ebf n\u0103m 2023, th\u00ec GDP t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean 1% n\u1eefa. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0111\u01b0a v\u1ed1n \u0110TC v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n Kinh T\u1ebf l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng c\u1eeda \u1ea3i ph\u00e1p l\u00fd, th\u1ee7 t\u1ee5c ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u00ecn v\u00e0o k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0110TC trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, Ban Kinh T\u1ebf Trung \u01af\u01a1ng (BKTTU) c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea3ng nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0110TC qua c\u00e1c n\u0103m, l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed3i s\u1ee5t: n\u0103m 2017; l\u00e0 73%; n\u0103m 2018 l\u00e0 66%; n\u0103m 2019 l\u00e0 67%; n\u0103m 2020 l\u00e0 82%; n\u0103m 2021 l\u00e0 72% v\u00e0 n\u0103m 2022 \u0111\u1ea1t tr\u00ean 67%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u00fd I n\u0103m 2023, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00e1nh cho bi\u1ebft, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n v\u1ed1n \u0110TC ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c 73.192 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, \u0111\u1ea1t 9,69% k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch. N\u1ebfu gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0110TC t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1u theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 thu\u1eadn nh\u01b0 qu\u00fd I v\u1eeba qua, th\u00ec k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 c\u1ea3 n\u0103m s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t khi\u00eam t\u1ed1n.  (https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=16670<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00fd do c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c BKTTU th\u00fa nh\u1eadn c\u00f3 t\u1edbi 25 – 30 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n, v\u01b0\u1edbng m\u1eafc trong 3 nh\u00f3m l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c. Trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf, ph\u00e1p lu\u1eadt ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ed9, quy \u0111\u1ecbnh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p v\u1ec1 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai, \u0111\u1ea5u th\u1ea7u, m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng, gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng m\u1eb7t b\u1eb1ng. . .<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00eda c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 th\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i n\u00eau ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n kh\u00e1c: V\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111\u1eafp n\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng, Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc quy \u0111\u1ecbnh 16.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ed9t m3 nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 30.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng m\u1ed9t m3, c\u1ea5p ph\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e1 d\u0103m 30.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf 120.000 \u0111\u1ed3ng. . . khi so s\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecbnh trong h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 \u0111\u1ea5u th\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy\u1ec7t v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u1ed7 kho\u1ea3ng 40%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng l\u00e0 t\u00e2m l\u00fd c\u00e1n b\u1ed9 c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n \u0110TC \u0111ang r\u00fat v\u00e0o \u201cth\u1ebf th\u1ee7\u201d. V\u00ec t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1edbi nay h\u1ecd tham nh\u0169ng nhi\u1ec1u r\u1ed3i, b\u00e2y gi\u1edd ph\u1ea3i th\u1ee7 th\u00e2n, s\u1ee3 l\u00e0m l\u1eafm sai nhi\u1ec1u, b\u1ecb b\u1eaft th\u00ec l\u00f2i ra c\u00e1c t\u1ed9i ph\u1ea1m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3! <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf tr\u00ean, vi\u1ec5n \u1ea3nh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng x\u00e1m ng\u1eaft nh\u01b0 b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi Mi\u1ec1n B\u1eafc tr\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ee3t gi\u00f3 \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc tr\u00e1i m\u00f9a r\u00edt l\u00ean t\u1eebng ch\u1eb7p l\u00e0m bu\u1ed1t gi\u00e1 l\u00f2ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/strong>
01 May 2023<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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[1] https:\/\/www.gso.gov.vn\/tin-tuc-khac\/2022\/11\/quoc-hoi-chot-gdp-nam-2023-tang-khoang-65-binh-quan-dau-nguoi-dat-4-400-usd\/
[2] https:\/\/congly.vn\/oxford-economics-du-bao-gdp-viet-nam-nam-2023-o-muc-4-2-375847.html
[3] https:\/\/meeyland.com\/dau-tu\/quy-12023-tong-kim-ngach-xuat-nhap-khau-hang-hoa-cua-viet-nam-uoc-dat-1543-ty-usd\/
[4] https:\/\/congly.vn\/vndirect-xuat-khau-nam-2023-du-bao-tang-truong-am-2-375999.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang l\u00e2m v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb 22 n\u0103m qua, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 FDI v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c suy y\u1ebfu; nhi\u1ec1u ng\u00e0nh \u201cm\u0169i nh\u1ecdn\u201d xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u00e2m, th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng B\u1ea5t \u0110\u1ed9ng S\u1ea3n (B\u0110S) ch\u01b0a tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. .\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":16873,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,12,57,9,53],"tags":[165,118,212,82,187],"class_list":["entry","author-nduong","post-16872","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chuyenmuc","category-giaoduc-vanhoc-lichsu","category-kinhte","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-kinh-te","tag-viet-cong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16872","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16872"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16872\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/16873"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16872"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16872"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16872"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}