{"id":24264,"date":"2025-02-22T00:36:46","date_gmt":"2025-02-22T00:36:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=24264"},"modified":"2025-02-22T00:37:06","modified_gmt":"2025-02-22T00:37:06","slug":"the-ky-chau-a-da-ket-thuc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=24264","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac?<\/strong>
Thitinan Pongsudhirak<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong>\u00a0Thitinan Pongsudhirak, \u201cIs the Asian Century over?,\u201d\u00a0Nikkei\u00a0Asia<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>,<\/em>\u00a010\/02\/2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (Pax Technologica) do AI th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00f4i qua, v\u00e0 \u201cTh\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1\u201d d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t \u0111i \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng g\u00ec t\u1eebng c\u00f3 v\u1ebb l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i mang t\u00ednh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u2013 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb T\u00e2y sang \u0110\u00f4ng, t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady do Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 theo sau \u2013 gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. \u01afu th\u1ebf c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ea3n kh\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb hung h\u0103ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m lu m\u1edd tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c1.<\/mark> V\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ai s\u1ebd th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb trong nh\u1eefng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1edbi, v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia hay \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf, m\u00e0 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 phi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi l\u1ebd khoa tr\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb c\u00e1c k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. N\u1ed5i ti\u1ebfng l\u00e0 c\u00e1c k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u0111\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi Th\u00e0nh Rome, Anh, v\u00e0 M\u1ef9, v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00ean g\u1ecdi l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00e0 Pax Romana, Pax Britannica, v\u00e0 Pax Americana. Rome \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i 1.500 n\u0103m, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 \u0110\u1ebf ch\u1ebf T\u00e2y La M\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ebf ch\u1ebf Byzantine (\u0110\u1ebf ch\u1ebf \u0110\u00f4ng La M\u00e3), trong khi Anh \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19, tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi M\u1ef9 ti\u1ebfp qu\u1ea3n v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20. R\u00fat kinh nghi\u1ec7m t\u1eeb qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00fap n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u1edbi c\u00e1c lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 v\u00e0 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u0111i k\u00e8m ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u0169ng mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch to l\u1edbn cho ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng \u01afu \u0111\u00e3i Ph\u1ed5 c\u1eadp (Generalized System of Preferences, GSP).<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi do M\u1ef9 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ecf ra v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 thay th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u2013 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 v\u1eabn tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh n\u1ea1n nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. <\/strong>Khi ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng thu h\u1eb9p kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac s\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3n kh\u00e1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1980. Sau khi ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 b\u00f3ng ma c\u1ee7a K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n (Pax Japonica), n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ec7, tr\u00f9ng v\u1edbi giai \u0111o\u1ea1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a m\u1edbi v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 trong c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 th\u00f4ng tin v\u00e0 truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng. M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 Trung Qu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1eadp T\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2001, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 chuy\u1ec3n giao c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cho m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng, t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t chi ph\u00ed th\u1ea5p cho c\u1ea3 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo sau Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng phi m\u00e3, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 b\u1edfi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0 v\u1eabn do Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u. \u201cTrung \u1ea4n\u201d (Chindia) l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00f4ng d\u00e2n nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/strong> Khi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh h\u00e0ng n\u0103m c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ea1t 10% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 1991-2010, v\u00e0 7% trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2011-2019 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3n \u0111o\u00e1n v\u1ec1 K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c (Pax Sinica) \u0111\u00e3 lan truy\u1ec1n. T\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2020, ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 chi\u1ebfm g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda t\u1ed5ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m qu\u1ed1c n\u1ed9i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1edbi g\u1ea7n ba ph\u1ea7n n\u0103m d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u tr\u1ebb h\u01a1n v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u1ea7ng l\u1edbp trung l\u01b0u \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u1edbi s\u1ee9c mua l\u1edbn h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean khi cho \u0111\u1ebfn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u1ec1 Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u1eabn \u0111\u00fang v\u00e0 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn. Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang tr\u00ec tr\u1ec7, v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u0111ang suy tho\u00e1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i. Nh\u01b0ng kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u1ea1i d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn. Ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ec1 sai l\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c quy t\u1eafc th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, v\u1ed1n s\u1ebd gi\u1eef cho t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean tham gia ch\u00ednh tham gia.<\/span> Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a c\u00f2n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1, th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu s\u1ebd chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch sang ch\u00e2u \u00c1, n\u01a1i c\u00f3 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t, nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Nh\u1eefng ph\u00e9p m\u00e0u t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1 th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1960 t\u1eebng lan sang \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1980 v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c lan sang Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 cho c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1. Ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng trong l\u00fac chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 lan t\u1ecfa kh\u1eafp ch\u00e2u \u00c1, n\u00e2ng cao thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a h\u00e0ng tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi tho\u00e1t kh\u1ecfi c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3i ngh\u00e8o. Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o c\u00e1c lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn c\u00f2n hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c, th\u00ec c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i ch\u00ednh.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, khi n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 Li\u00ean minh Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i nhi\u1ec1u ch\u00f4ng gai v\u00e0 r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n. <\/mark>Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump th\u1ee9 hai \u0111ang chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecba kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f4ng khai ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, t\u1eeb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ebfn Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/mark> \u2013 v\u1edbi nhi\u1ec1u cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t h\u01a1n n\u1eefa s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 \u2013 theo \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c1. C\u00e1c m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb lung lay v\u00e0 b\u1ecb s\u1eafp x\u1ebfp l\u1ea1i khi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 nhanh ch\u00f3ng ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh t\u00f9y theo c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ecba chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c xung \u0111\u1ed9t.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 khi tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf th\u1eddi h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c duy tr\u00ec, v\u1eabn r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u00ec m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh sai l\u1ea7m kh\u00e1c: Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t ch\u00e2u \u00c1 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t, g\u1eafn k\u1ebft, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng nh\u1ea5t, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee7 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 m\u1ecf neo Ph\u00e1p-\u0110\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Li\u00ean minh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o l\u00e3nh v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1. Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t ch\u00e2u \u00c1, \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea5t h\u00f2a su\u1ed1t nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. Trung Qu\u1ed1c, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n v\u1eabn nu\u00f4i d\u01b0\u1ee1ng nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i th\u00f9 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed s\u00e2u s\u1eafc c\u00f3 t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II. <\/strong>Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ng\u1edd t\u1edbi trong B\u1ed9 t\u1ee9 Quad do M\u1ef9 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ec kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u00e2u \u00c1 n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o khu v\u1ef1c, ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn vai tr\u00f2 m\u00f4i gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u1ea7u n\u1ed1i. Nh\u00f3m 10 qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t ch\u1eb7ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hai th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p sau Chi\u1ebfn tranh L\u1ea1nh \u2013 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m nh\u01b0 H\u1ee3p t\u00e1c Kinh t\u1ebf Ch\u00e2u \u00c1-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n Khu v\u1ef1c ASEAN, H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c1, v\u00e0 H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng ASEAN m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng quan tr\u1ecdng cho \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t \u0111i \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c khi ASEAN d\u1ea7n b\u1ecb chia r\u1ebd v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh gi\u00e0nh quy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, s\u1ef1 hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Myanmar, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Nga \u1edf Ukraine.<\/mark> ASEAN ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 n\u1ebfu c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng tinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh c\u00f9ng nhau \u2013 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi Washington v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111ang b\u1ea5t h\u00f2a.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, ranh gi\u1edbi c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb v\u1eabn n\u1eb1m \u1edf ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh b\u1ecb h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf b\u1edfi bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u1ed1t l\u00e0nh n\u00e0o cho kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t Th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1.<\/mark><\/strong> Nh\u1eefng t\u1ef7 ph\u00fa h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1eabn l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m v\u00e0 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh, m\u00e3 h\u00f3a, v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n trong c\u00e1c ph\u00f2ng th\u00ed nghi\u1ec7m ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong 25 n\u0103m t\u1edbi, ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (Pax Technologica) do AI th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y, \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 l\u00e0 con ng\u01b0\u1eddi<\/mark><\/strong>. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang l\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 m\u1edbi m\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng nhau ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thitinan Pongsudhirak <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 t\u1ea1i Khoa Khoa h\u1ecdc Ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Chulalongkorn v\u00e0 l\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u vi\u00ean c\u1ea5p cao t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n An ninh v\u00e0 Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i Bangkok.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2025\/02\/13\/the-ky-chau-a-da-ket-thuc\/#more-60560<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh ho\u1ea1: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0Thitinan Pongsudhirak, \u201cIs the Asian Century over?,\u201d\u00a0Nikkei\u00a0Asia,\u00a010\/02\/2025 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn K\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean C\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 (Pax Technologica) do AI th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y. M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 21 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00f4i qua, v\u00e0 \u201cTh\u1ebf k\u1ef7 Ch\u00e2u \u00c1\u201d\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":24265,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,57,9,53],"tags":[657,87,165,118,212,119,82],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-24264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-giaoduc-vanhoc-lichsu","category-kinhte","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-a-chau","tag-asean","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-hoa-ky","tag-kinh-te"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24264"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24264\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/24265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}