{"id":26682,"date":"2025-10-20T19:04:00","date_gmt":"2025-10-20T19:04:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=26682"},"modified":"2025-10-20T19:05:50","modified_gmt":"2025-10-20T19:05:50","slug":"mo-rong-asean-co-hoi-chien-luoc-hay-chech-huong-chien-luoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=26682","title":{"rendered":"M\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ASEAN: C\u01a1 h\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c hay Ch\u1ec7ch h\u01b0\u1edbng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c?<\/strong>
David Cohen, Alexandra Koch<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0David Cohen v\u00e0 Alexandra Koch, \u201cASEAN Expansion: Strategic Opportunity or Strategic Drift?,\u201dThe Diplomat<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>,\u00a0<\/em>14\/10\/2025<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c ASEAN m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m Timor-Leste v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 Papua New Guinea s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu th\u00eam s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh ASEAN l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 47 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i Kuala Lumpur v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y. V\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng n\u1ed9i dung c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn t\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Indonesia \u2013 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng ASEAN th\u00e1ng 07\/2025<\/strong> \u2013 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN cho Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c Timor-Leste gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ed1i, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ASEAN ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn su\u1ed1t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m qua, d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t t\u1ea1i th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y. Tuy nhi\u00ean, thay v\u00ec c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 ASEAN, \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0m r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t kh\u1ed1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a ra v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ASEAN \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng t\u0103ng trong vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ee9ng minh s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh gi\u1eefa b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh chia r\u1ebd n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u00e0 c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gay g\u1eaft \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a Jakarta ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh tham v\u1ecdng kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Indonesia trong ASEAN v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i g\u1eafn k\u1ebft h\u01a1n, hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p cao h\u01a1n<\/strong>. Tuy nhi\u00ean, li\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t ASEAN l\u1edbn h\u01a1n c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ASEAN m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n? Hay vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng th\u00eam, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 khi kh\u00f4ng t\u1eadp trung song song v\u00e0o c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9, s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft m\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i \u0111ang t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng?<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Timor<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea v\u00e0o ASEAN c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i v\u1eadt l\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng chia r\u1ebd s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 an ninh. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng \u0111\u1eb7t ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi s\u00e2u h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a ASEAN v\u00e0 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y trong an ninh \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 t\u1eebng m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y. L\u1ea7n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 1990 \u2013 k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p Vi\u1ec7t Nam, L\u00e0o, Myanmar, v\u00e0 Campuchia \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh d\u1ea5u \u1ea5n \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a ASEAN v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7t n\u1ec1n m\u00f3ng cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng 680 tri\u1ec7u d\u00e2n \u0111ang ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nhanh ch\u00f3ng ng\u00e0y nay. Timor-Leste, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn nh\u1edd s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Indonesia, \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gia nh\u1eadp kh\u1ed1i k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2022, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p s\u1ef1 ho\u00e0i nghi \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN kh\u00e1c. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Papua New Guinea ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi tham gia v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u00e0 c\u00f3 quan h\u1ec7 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf, v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ASEAN: qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn, h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf, t\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc khu v\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u ASEAN c\u00f3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u2013 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u2013 \u0111\u01b0a Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea v\u00e0o khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng tham v\u1ecdng n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y \u0111ang g\u1eb7p kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau n\u00e0y v\u00e0 h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang b\u1ecb \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u1ec7. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 sung hai qu\u1ed1c gia d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 song song trong kh\u1ed1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m cho s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01a1n, m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 l\u00e0m lu m\u1edd b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb b\u1eb1ng \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn: Nh\u1eefng Th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 G\u1eafn k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ASEAN<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ASEAN, m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh v\u1ed1n d\u0129 \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh, x\u00e9t \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, v\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t s\u00e2u s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a 10 qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean.<\/mark> Vi\u1ec7c kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y ch\u1eadt v\u1eadt \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u1edf Myanmar, gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft tranh ch\u1ea5p h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i \u1edf Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, hay x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u1ec1 c\u1ea1nh tranh n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u00e1p \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 khi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean chung v\u00e0 c\u00f3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u00e0 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng theo c\u00e1c cam k\u1ebft t\u1eadp th\u1ec3. C\u1ea3 Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n \u0111\u00f3. C\u1ea3 hai th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a ASEAN t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 mong manh v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, an ninh, v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Timor-Leste \u0111ang l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y trong c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ASEAN.<\/strong> H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, s\u1ef1 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a Timor-Leste \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c minh h\u1ecda b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c B\u1eafc Kinh t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng Dinh T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng, B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao, v\u00e0 Tr\u1ee5 s\u1edf L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng V\u0169 trang Timor-Leste, v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024 b\u1eb1ng th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o chung c\u1ee7a hai qu\u1ed1c gia v\u1ec1 \u201ct\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng quan h\u1ec7 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n.\u201d<\/mark> Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, l\u00e1 phi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Papua New Guinea t\u1ea1i Li\u00ean Hi\u1ec7p Qu\u1ed1c g\u1ea7n g\u0169i h\u01a1n v\u1edbi Australia v\u00e0 New Zealand so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN, ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh quan h\u1ec7 ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u1edbi c\u00e1c kh\u1ed1i Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, m\u00e0 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh trong tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 v\u1ec1 li\u00ean minh ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 chung v\u1edbi Australia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng \u01b0u ti\u00ean kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t n\u00e0y \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n do qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf. T\u1ea1i Timor-Leste, c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc k\u00e9m ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c kinh t\u1ebf g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n thu t\u1eeb d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u0111ang c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t<\/strong> khi\u1ebfn ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng. M\u1ed9t b\u00e1o c\u00e1o n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh chi ti\u00eau c\u00f4ng \u1edf Timor-Leste trung b\u00ecnh chi\u1ebfm 85% GDP trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2013-2023, v\u1edbi 42% ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1ng d\u01b0\u1edbi m\u1ee9c ngh\u00e8o kh\u1ed5 qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 88% vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c trong khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng<\/strong>. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 tham gia l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ea5p, t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf y\u1ebfu \u1edbt, v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp di\u1ec5n b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i. Vi\u1ec7c Qu\u1ef9 D\u1ea7u m\u1ecf c\u1ee7a Timor-Leste c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m lu m\u1edd th\u00eam t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Qu\u1ed1c gia Papua New Guinea<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

V\u1ec1 ph\u1ea7n m\u00ecnh, Papua New Guinea ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n: l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 b\u1ecb chia c\u1eaft, ph\u00e1p quy\u1ec1n y\u1ebfu, b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u2013 86% \u2013 s\u1ed1ng \u1edf c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng n\u00f4ng th\u00f4n, nhi\u1ec1u n\u01a1i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00e1 v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u00e1c d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng. <\/strong>Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i v\u1eadt l\u1ed9n \u0111\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 c\u00f4ng, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 khi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb leo thang th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1n ch\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1edf th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4 Port Moresby v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2024. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i Papua New Guinea l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi xung \u0111\u1ed9t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASEAN v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 quan tr\u1ecdng bao g\u1ed3m Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, Myanmar, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng khu v\u1ef1c nh\u01b0 \u1edf Ti\u1ec3u v\u00f9ng Mekong. Vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p th\u00eam hai th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi v\u1edbi c\u00e1c li\u00ean k\u1ebft kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t, th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m, v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb chia r\u1ebd v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp Kinh t\u1ebf Khu v\u1ef1c: Kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh vi\u1ec7c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m trong t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a ASEAN. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c h\u00f3a v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2015 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ra m\u1eaft C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng Kinh t\u1ebf ASEAN (AEC)<\/strong>. D\u00f9 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 C\u01a1 ch\u1ebf M\u1ed9t c\u1eeda ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng kinh t\u1ebf g\u1eafn k\u1ebft \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn v\u00e0 dai d\u1eb3ng gi\u1eefa m\u01b0\u1eddi qu\u1ed1c gia th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean<\/strong>. S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn H\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp ASEAN (IAI), \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1edfi x\u01b0\u1edbng nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y, ch\u1ec9 mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch kinh t\u1ebf gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 kinh t\u1ebf trong kh\u1ed1i c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 h\u01a1n.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u1ea3 hai n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec1u n\u1eb1m trong s\u1ed1 nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf k\u00e9m ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u1ea5t \u1edf Ch\u00e2u \u00c1-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u1ed1n con ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u2013 0,45 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Timor-Leste v\u00e0 0,43 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Papua New Guinea \u2013 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c l\u00e0 0,59. T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111a chi\u1ec1u (multidimensional poverty) hi\u1ec7n \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn 48% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 Timor-Leste v\u00e0 g\u1ea7n 57% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 Papua New Guinea, cao h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 kh\u00e1c trong khu v\u1ef1c. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 suy dinh d\u01b0\u1ee1ng th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5p c\u00f2i \u1edf c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ec1u g\u1ea7n 50%, g\u1ea7n g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i m\u1ee9c trung b\u00ecnh 27% c\u1ee7a ASEAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Timor-Leste ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u v\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, v\u1edbi l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1n r\u00fat ra t\u1eeb Qu\u1ef9 D\u1ea7u m\u1ecf chi\u1ebfm 88% GDP. Qu\u1ef9 n\u00e0y d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t v\u00e0o gi\u1eefa nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2030, khi \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u201cv\u1ef1c th\u1eb3m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n t\u1eeb l\u00e2u, tr\u1eeb phi c\u00f3 th\u00eam c\u00e1c m\u1ecf d\u1ea7u m\u1edbi. T\u1ea1i Papua New Guinea, xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p khai th\u00e1c, bao g\u1ed3m d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, kh\u00ed \u0111\u1ed1t t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean, v\u00e0 v\u00e0ng, \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng mang l\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng ho\u1eb7c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng; ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 h\u01a1n 20% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng \u0111i\u1ec7n.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, c\u1ea3 hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng h\u01b0\u1edbng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebfn ASEAN. D\u00f9 Papua New Guinea xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u sang Singapore v\u00e0 Malaysia, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m Australia, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n.<\/strong> L\u00e0 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, Papua New Guinea h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ASEAN, v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1eb3n v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu li\u00ean k\u1ebft th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u00f3 \u00fd ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1<\/strong>. Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Timor-Leste c\u00f3 ph\u1ea7n h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 ASEAN nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2023, kim ng\u1ea1ch nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y (904 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la) \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa kim ng\u1ea1ch xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u (294 tri\u1ec7u \u0111\u00f4 la), khi\u1ebfn t\u1ed5ng kim ng\u1ea1ch th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn h\u1ecd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c kinh t\u1ebf nh\u1ecf trong ASEAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf ASEAN v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 v\u1ea5p ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 uy t\u00edn. Vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p hai n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf r\u1eddi r\u1ea1c v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ASEAN v\u1ec1 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t c\u00e0ng tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea3n s\u1eafc Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c: ASEAN l\u00e0 g\u00ec (v\u00e0 l\u00e0 ai)?<\/h4>\n\n\n
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Ngo\u00e0i nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a ASEAN, \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng bu\u1ed9c kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi mang t\u00ednh s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh: li\u1ec7u h\u1ecd c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i b\u1ecb gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i kinh t\u1ebf, hay m\u1ed9t c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c?<\/mark><\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan t\u00e2m tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft c\u1ee7a ASEAN. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, Australia, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc, ti\u00eau chu\u1ea9n th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean, v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ASEAN nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng-Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN sang Timor-Leste v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN<\/strong>. \u0110\u00fang l\u00e0 Timor-Leste chia s\u1ebb \u0111\u1ea3o Timor v\u1edbi T\u00e2y Timor c\u1ee7a Indonesia v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea gi\u00e1p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u1ec9nh c\u1ef1c \u0111\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Indonesia l\u00e0 Papua v\u00e0 T\u00e2y Papua. Nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 g\u1ea7n g\u0169i \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd bi\u1ec7n minh cho t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean, th\u00ec logic t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng sang Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Solomon, Bangladesh, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed Australia. Vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd l\u00e0m sai l\u1ec7ch b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u1ee7a ASEAN v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 theo ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00e2m \u201cM\u1ed9t T\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn, M\u1ed9t B\u1ea3n s\u1eafc, M\u1ed9t C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/strong>\u201d m\u00e0 ASEAN \u0111ang ch\u1eadt v\u1eadt t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch h\u01a1n c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. Papua New Guinea t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay lu\u00f4n h\u01b0\u1edbng v\u1ec1 Melanesia, Ch\u00e2u \u0110\u1ea1i D\u01b0\u01a1ng, v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, thay v\u00ec li\u00ean k\u1ebft v\u1edbi \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1. N\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 tham gia v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c s\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, bao g\u1ed3m Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, Kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i Khu v\u1ef1c Nam Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, v\u00e0 Hi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecbnh kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u00e0 Quan h\u1ec7 Th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i gi\u1eefa Australia v\u00e0 Papua New Guinea. C\u00f2n Timor-Leste tuy c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 g\u1ea7n g\u0169i h\u01a1n v\u1edbi ASEAN nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 nh\u1ecf v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tham gia h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf trong t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t vi\u00ean ASEAN, v\u00e0 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 li\u00ean k\u1ebft r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m lo\u00e3ng m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a ASEAN. B\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng n\u00e0o c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf nh\u1eb1m th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i, l\u1ee3i \u00edch thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu, t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 ki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac an ninh khu v\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ghi trong Hi\u1ebfn ch\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u1ebft v\u1ec1 Ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb-An ninh, Kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 V\u0103n h\u00f3a-X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i 2016-2025.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u1ea3 hai \u1ee9ng vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ASEAN \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c gi\u1eefa g\u1eafn k\u1ebft v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u01b0u ti\u00ean g\u1eafn k\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ee9ng minh uy t\u00edn v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p. Vi\u1ec7c m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra, nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n v\u1ec1 qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb, kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ASEAN kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 bao tr\u00f9m m\u00e0 c\u00f2n hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3.<\/strong> N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng s\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf, v\u00e0 t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c chung tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c k\u1ebft n\u1ea1p th\u00eam th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m s\u00e2u s\u1eafc th\u00eam chia r\u1ebd v\u00e0 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t ASEAN v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi cho l\u00e0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng ph\u00e2n m\u1ea3nh v\u00e0 thi\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111o\u00e1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Cohen <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n B\u1ec1n v\u1eefng t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Stanford. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng l\u00e0 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp Trung t\u00e2m Nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng l\u00fd Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Stanford, n\u01a1i \u00f4ng gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9c gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 v\u1ec1 Nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 C\u00f4ng l\u00fd Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alexandra Koch <\/strong>
H\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 t\u1ea1i Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Lu\u1eadt Stanford v\u00e0 c\u1ef1u C\u00e1n b\u1ed9 \u0110\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ea1i B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao M\u1ef9. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, b\u00e0 t\u1eebng l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u1ea1i Nh\u00f3m Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 Lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf C\u00f4ng (PILPG), n\u01a1i b\u00e0 t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n cho c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 phi nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf hi\u1ebfn ph\u00e1p h\u1eadu xung \u0111\u1ed9t, v\u00e0 c\u00f4ng l\u00fd chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ebfp.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2025\/10\/19\/mo-rong-asean-co-hoi-chien-luoc-hay-chech-huong-chien-luoc\/#more-63976<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh ho\u1ea1: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0David Cohen v\u00e0 Alexandra Koch, \u201cASEAN Expansion: Strategic Opportunity or Strategic Drift?,\u201dThe Diplomat,\u00a014\/10\/2025 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng Vi\u1ec7c ASEAN m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m Timor-Leste v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 Papua New Guinea s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu th\u00eam s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i n\u00e0y. H\u1ed9i\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":26683,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9,53],"tags":[87,165,118,212,718,82,719,226],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-26682","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-asean","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-dong-timor","tag-kinh-te","tag-papua-new-guinea","tag-xa-hoi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26682","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26682"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26682\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26686,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26682\/revisions\/26686"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/26683"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26682"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26682"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26682"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}