{"id":27380,"date":"2026-01-10T03:28:02","date_gmt":"2026-01-10T03:28:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27380"},"modified":"2026-01-10T03:28:06","modified_gmt":"2026-01-10T03:28:06","slug":"gdp-illusion-noi-234-du-an-cua-ba-dinh","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27380","title":{"rendered":"\u201cGDP illusion\u201d n\u01a1i 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u1ee7a Ba-\u0110\u00ecnh<\/strong>
Tr\u1ea7n Nguy\u00ean Thao<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0110\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfc gh\u1ebf th\u00eam 5 n\u0103m n\u1eefa (2026-2031), Ba \u0110\u00ecnh tung ra g\u00f3i \u201csi\u00eau tr\u00ecnh di\u1ec5n\u201d g\u1ed3m 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1ea1i 79 \u0111i\u1ec3m, t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n 3,4 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc g\u00f3p 18%, c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i 82% [1] <\/strong>tr\u00f4ng v\u00e0o t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n cho\u2026 h\u1ee3p tr\u00e0o l\u01b0u. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eb1m hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a gi\u1ea5c m\u01a1 GDP hai ch\u1eef s\u1ed1 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2026 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o gi\u1ea3i ng\u00e2n c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 2025, kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1edbi GDP g\u1ea7n 8%, nh\u1edd xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng h\u1ed3i sinh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng ch\u1ea1y h\u1ebft c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t. Nh\u01b0ng ph\u00eda sau con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eb9p l\u00e0 c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 kh\u00f4ng r\u1ebb: l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t h\u1ea1 s\u00e2u, cung ti\u1ec1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed3ng tr\u01b0\u1ee3t kho\u1ea3ng 3,5%, k\u00e9o theo chi ph\u00ed nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t len v\u00e0o b\u1eefa c\u01a1m ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n<\/strong>. Doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u1eabn thi nhau b\u1ecf cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i, s\u1ed1 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i th\u00ec ch\u1eadt v\u1eadt, s\u1ee9c mua \u00e8o u\u1ed9t, nhi\u1ec1u con ph\u1ed1 v\u1eafng tanh\u00a0 .\u00a0\u00a0 .\u00a0 . M\u1ed9t n\u0103m t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ef1c r\u1ee1 tr\u00ean gi\u1ea5y, nh\u01b0ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u1ea1i nh\u1eafc kh\u00e9o Ba-\u0110\u00ecnh r\u1eb1ng, b\u00e0i to\u00e1n c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u0129 m\u00f4 ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd l\u00e0 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t hai lo\u1ea1i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng: t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ef1c v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u201cv\u1ebd v\u1eddi\u201d. Lo\u1ea1i th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n ph\u00fac l\u1ee3i x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i; lo\u1ea1i th\u1ee9 hai d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean tr\u00f2 l\u1eeba s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u, nh\u1eefng l\u1ec5 kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng ho\u00e0nh tr\u00e1ng v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u1ea3ng th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecdc ph\u1ea3i nheo m\u1eaft \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00ecm xem l\u1ee3i \u00edch th\u1ef1c n\u1eb1m \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u.<\/strong> S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 kh\u00e1nh th\u00e0nh 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n v\u1edbi t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n h\u01a1n 130 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 19 th\u00e1ng 12 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh cho hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ee9 hai – m\u1ed9t minh ch\u1ee9ng s\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed9ng cho c\u00e1ch m\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201ct\u1ea1o ra\u201d v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 nhanh h\u01a1n c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u1ec5 kh\u00e1nh th\u00e0nh 234 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 tham d\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ea5p cao, \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o n\u00ean m\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c tranh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c phe c\u00f3 quy\u1ec1n m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u1ea7y kh\u00ed th\u1ebf\u201d. Trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, th\u00ec g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 \u201ct\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch\u201d – m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n, khi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh di\u1ec5n<\/strong> – t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f4i khi gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ph\u00e1o hoa: r\u1ef1c r\u1ee1, \u1ed3n \u00e0o, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u00e2u d\u00e0i ngo\u00e0i c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c ph\u1ea5n kh\u00edch nh\u1ea5t th\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n h\u01a1n 3,4 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng, b\u1eb1ng g\u1ea7n 130 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ecdi nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec1u bi\u1ebft, t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. M\u1ed9t d\u1ef1 \u00e1n 10 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ed9i v\u1ed1n l\u00ean g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i hay h\u01a1n n\u1eefa, kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc gi\u00e0u h\u01a1n; n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m b\u1ea3ng c\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed1i k\u1ebf to\u00e1n c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u00eam ph\u1ea7n lo l\u1eafng h\u01a1n do m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n d\u1ef1 \u00e1n mang gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb \u1ea3o, khi\u1ebfn ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng thu \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u1ee3 qua c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo b\u00e1o ch\u00ed nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, kho\u1ea3ng 82% t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y nghe c\u1ee9 nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi quan tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n – v\u00e0 c\u0169ng th\u00fa v\u1ecb h\u01a1n – l\u00e0: t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n n\u00e0o?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u201ct\u01b0 nh\u00e2n\u201d c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 bao g\u1ed3m: Doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay; T\u01b0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n h\u1eefu; T\u01b0 b\u1ea3n quan h\u1ec7 m\u1eadt thi\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m l\u1ee3i \u00edch; Doanh nghi\u1ec7p vay v\u1ed1n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u201ct\u01b0 nh\u00e2n\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Gi\u1edbi quan s\u00e1t kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp cho bi\u1ebft, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn 234 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chia ch\u00e1c cho c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n h\u1eefu c\u1ee7a phe ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c gi\u1eef quy\u1ec1n. <\/strong>Khi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t, h\u1ecd chi\u1ebfm d\u1ee5ng \u201c\u0111\u1ea5t v\u00e0ng\u201d, d\u00f9ng l\u00e0m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ec3 vay v\u1ed1n, \u0111\u1ec1n b\u00f9 r\u1ebb r\u1ed3i b\u00e1n l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi gi\u00e1 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i cao g\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 B\u0110S t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt.<\/a> C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u1ee7a gi\u1edbi s\u00e2n sau vay t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean. Hi\u1ec7n d\u01b0 n\u1ee3 B\u0110S t\u0103ng 18,5%, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean nguy c\u01a1 v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n trong ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 doanh nghi\u1ec7p \u0111\u1ecba \u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u201ct\u01b0 nh\u00e2n h\u00f3a l\u1ee3i \u00edch, x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i h\u00f3a r\u1ee7i ro\u201d. L\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p, c\u00f2n r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1ed9i v\u1ed1n, ch\u1eadm ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u th\u00ec ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n thu\u1ebf c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ph\u1ea3i g\u00e1nh. N\u1ebfu m\u1ecdi chuy\u1ec7n su\u00f4ng s\u1ebb, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n; n\u1ebfu th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed5 l\u1ed7i t\u1ea1i \u201ckh\u00f3 kh\u0103n kh\u00e1ch quan\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng \u201ch\u00f4 kh\u1ea9u hi\u1ec7u\u201d th\u00ec x\u01b0ng t\u1ee5ng kh\u1ed1i doanh nghi\u1ec7p nh\u1ecf v\u00e0 v\u1eeba (DNNVV) l\u00e0 \u201cx\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ed1ng\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf, nh\u01b0ng trong th\u1ef1c t\u1ea1i l\u1ea1i gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0\u2026 \u201cm\u1edb x\u01b0\u01a1ng g\u00e0\u201d, nh\u1ecf, m\u1ec1m v\u00e0 d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb ninh nh\u1eeb trong n\u1ed3i l\u1eabu v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9 ngon c\u1ee7a m\u00f3n \u0103n ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u201c234 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n\u201d. Trung b\u00ecnh c\u00e1c n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, m\u1ed7i n\u0103m su\u00fdt so\u00e1t kho\u1ea3ng 200.000 doanh nghi\u1ec7p r\u1eddi cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i, ri\u00eang n\u0103m 2025 s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p ph\u00e1 s\u1ea3n l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 227.000. V\u1eady c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft 68 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ebd gi\u00fap kh\u1ed1i DNNVV t\u0103ng l\u00ean 2 tri\u1ec7u c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2030 \u2013 d\u00f5ng d\u1ea1c nh\u01b0 l\u1eddi hi\u1ec7u tri\u1ec7u ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ea3n \u1ea3nh th\u1ef1c tr\u1ea1ng \u201cth\u1eed k\u00eau b\u1eafn t\u1ecbt\u201d (?) [2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u00ecn sang H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n hay \u0110\u00e0i Loan, DNNVV c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e2ng \u0111\u1ee1 \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh v\u1ec7 tinh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n l\u1edbn. C\u00f2n \u1edf b\u00ean ta, DNNVV m\u1ed9t tai nghe kh\u1ea9u hi\u1ec7u, tai kia vang l\u00ean l\u1eddi d\u1eb7n d\u00f2 \u201ct\u1ef1 xoay s\u1edf l\u1ea5y\u201d, trong khi \u01b0u \u0111\u00e3i v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1i ch\u1ea3y v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7. N\u1ebfu ph\u00e2n ph\u1ed1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n theo c\u00e1ch \u0111ang l\u00e0m, th\u00ec DNNVV d\u00f9 chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 98% t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 doanh nghi\u1ec7p t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam, \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p g\u1ea7n 50% GDP, h\u01a1n 30% thu ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m cho kho\u1ea3ng 82% l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng lao \u0111\u1ed9ng, c\u0169ng v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ee9ng b\u00ean l\u1ec1, nh\u00ecn c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ph\u00ecnh to v\u00e0 nu\u1ed1t tr\u1ecdn th\u1ecb ph\u1ea7n.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Keynes (*)<\/sup><\/strong>, \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng – n\u1ebfu<\/strong> t\u1ea1o ra gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1eadt. C\u00f2n ki\u1ec3u x\u00e2y c\u1ea7u m\u00e0 d\u00e2n ch\u1ec9 d\u00e1m \u0111\u1ee9ng xa m\u00e0 ng\u1eafm, hay d\u1ef1ng nguy\u00ean \u201ckhu ph\u1ed1 ma\u201d h\u00e0ng ch\u1ee5c tri\u1ec7u c\u0103n nh\u00e0 b\u1ecf hoang nh\u01b0 b\u00ean T\u00e0u, th\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng c\u00f4ng c\u1ed9ng kho\u00e1c \u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00e1 quen v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u1ed9i v\u1ed1n g\u1ea5p ba, b\u1ed1n l\u1ea7n. N\u1ee3 th\u00ec d\u00e2n tr\u1ea3, c\u00f2n \u201cph\u00fac l\u1ee3i\u201d do r\u00fat ru\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh th\u00ec tham quan mang sang tr\u1eddi T\u00e2y mua s\u1eafm c\u01a1 ng\u01a1i. Th\u1ebf n\u00ean m\u1ed7i l\u1ea7n tr\u0103m d\u1ef1 \u00e1n kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng c\u00f9ng l\u00fac, c\u1ea3m gi\u00e1c \u201cd\u00e9j\u00e0 vu\u201d <\/strong>l\u1ea1i \u00f9a v\u1ec1<\/strong>, nh\u01b0 \u201cqu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ea5m th\u00e9p\u201d Vinashin t\u1eebng tan ch\u1ea3y n\u0103m 2010!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u1eebng th\u1eed \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1eb1ng b\u00ea t\u00f4ng\u201d: Trung c\u1ed9ng, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, Brazil\u2026 K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 gi\u1ed1ng nhau: GDP ph\u00ecnh, n\u1ee3 ph\u00ecnh h\u01a1n, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u00f4m r\u1ee7i ro. Trong khi 65% d\u00e2n qu\u00ea v\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u xu\u1ed1ng tr\u00f4n l\u00ean ki\u1ebfm c\u01a1m qua ng\u00e0y.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y, kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o t\u00edch l\u0169y v\u1ed1n\u201d, tr\u00e1i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi \u201ct\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n su\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba\u201d. M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng con s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1eb9p trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh th\u1ee9 hai m\u1edbi t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e3 r\u1ebd: ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng cao, hay chuy\u1ec3n sang m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed5i m\u1edbi, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, t\u0103ng n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean v\u00e0 lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 l\u00e0m, d\u1ec5 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y, d\u1ec5 b\u00e1o c\u00e1o; l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u1ee9 hai kh\u00f3 h\u01a1n, \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o duy nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng. Khi GDP t\u0103ng nh\u1edd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng, nh\u01b0ng thu nh\u1eadp th\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng, b\u1ea5t b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1eb3ng gia t\u0103ng, v\u00e0 n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u ph\u00ecnh to, th\u00ec GDP tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u \u201cv\u1ebd v\u1eddi\u201d h\u01a1n l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Trong kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc, hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cGDP illusion\u201d – \u1ea3o gi\u00e1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng<\/strong>. M\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nh\u1ea3y v\u1ecdt 8%\u201310% nh\u1edd b\u01a1m v\u1ed1n \u1ed3 \u1ea1t, nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i, th\u00ec m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng \u1ea5y \u2013 d\u00f9 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ca ng\u1ee3i b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng m\u1ef9 t\u1eeb v\u1ec1 \u201ct\u01b0 duy, t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn v\u00e0 kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng v\u01b0\u01a1n ra bi\u1ec3n l\u1edbn – c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 nh\u01b0 b\u00f3ng bay: s\u00e1ng lo\u00e1ng, nh\u01b0ng mong manh, d\u1ec5 v\u1ee1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n BOT, PPP hay t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n vay ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u0169ng v\u1eady: r\u1ee7i ro n\u1ee3 x\u1ea5u g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u201c\u0111i k\u00e8m combo\u201d. Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n d\u1ef1 \u00e1n ch\u1eadm ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9, \u0111\u1ed9i v\u1ed1n hay khai th\u00e1c k\u00e9m hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c ph\u1ea3i xoay \u0111\u1ee7 ki\u1ec3u – c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u n\u1ee3, gi\u00e3n n\u1ee3, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed x\u00f3a n\u1ee3. H\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00ec th\u1ebf y\u1ebfu \u0111i, v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng domino lan ra to\u00e0n n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00e1m m\u00e2y x\u00e1m l\u01a1 l\u1eedng tr\u00ean b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh \u1ea5y, vi\u1ec7c kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m d\u1ef1 \u00e1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f9ng l\u00fac gi\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t v\u00e1n c\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1edbn: th\u1eafng th\u00ec kinh t\u1ebf c\u00f3 c\u00fa h\u00edch \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, thua th\u00ec h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e2u d\u00e0i m\u00e0 c\u00f2n\u2026 \u0111au.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh cho m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u201cx\u00e2y & c\u1ea5t\u201d<\/strong> – m\u1ed9t m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng. C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 r\u1eb1ng Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai b\u1eb1ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 nhanh h\u01a1n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ef1 \u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng, m\u00e0 t\u1eeb ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang; kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0, m\u00e0 t\u1eeb hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n; kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng l\u1ec5 kh\u1edfi c\u00f4ng ho\u00e0nh tr\u00e1ng, m\u00e0 t\u1eeb nh\u1eefng c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf \u00e2m th\u1ea7m nh\u01b0ng b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba \u0111\u1ee7 m\u1ea1nh, 234 \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 234 minh ch\u1ee9ng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng \u201cv\u1ebd v\u1eddi\u201d, \u0111\u1eb9p m\u1eaft nh\u01b0ng h\u00e3o huy\u1ec1n, \u0111\u00fang ngh\u0129a s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u \u201cGDP illusion\u201d.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

[1] https:\/\/baomoi.com\/tong-thuat-thu-tuong-chinh-phu-va-chu-tich-quoc-hoi-du-le-khoi-cong-khanh-thanh-234-du-an-lon-tren-ca-nuoc-c54048304.epi<\/p>\n\n\n\n

[2] https:\/\/nguoiquansat.vn\/227-200-doanh-nghiep-rut-lui-khoi-thi-truong-trong-nam-2025-264850.html#google_vignette<\/p>\n\n\n\n

(*) l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft kinh t\u1ebf h\u1ecdc Keynes cho r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u1ee9c s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

(**) \u201cd\u00e9j\u00e0 vu\u201d th\u00e0nh ng\u1eef Ph\u00e1p: \u201c\u0110\u00e3 t\u1eebng th\u1ea5y\u201d.                       <\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0110\u1ec3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfc gh\u1ebf th\u00eam 5 n\u0103m n\u1eefa (2026-2031), Ba \u0110\u00ecnh tung ra g\u00f3i \u201csi\u00eau tr\u00ecnh di\u1ec5n\u201d g\u1ed3m 234 d\u1ef1 \u00e1n t\u1ea1i 79 \u0111i\u1ec3m, t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n 3,4 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng. Nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc g\u00f3p 18%, c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i 82% [1] tr\u00f4ng v\u00e0o t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n cho\u2026 h\u1ee3p tr\u00e0o l\u01b0u. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eb1m\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":27382,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,53],"tags":[118,212,82,761,187,226],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-27380","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte-chinhtri","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-kinh-te","tag-tang-truong","tag-viet-cong","tag-xa-hoi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27380","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27380"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27380\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27383,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27380\/revisions\/27383"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/27382"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27380"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27380"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27380"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}