{"id":27756,"date":"2026-03-08T01:24:31","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T01:24:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27756"},"modified":"2026-03-08T01:24:33","modified_gmt":"2026-03-08T01:24:33","slug":"nam-2026-la-thoi-diem-vang-de-trung-cong-xam-luoc-dai-loan","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27756","title":{"rendered":"N\u0103m 2026 l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 Trung C\u1ed9ng x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0110\u00e0i Loan?<\/strong>
YUN SUN<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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__________________________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Yun Sun, \u201cA Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?\u201d, Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>, 23\/01\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u0103m 2021, \u0110\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed1c H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 Philip Davidson, khi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh B\u1ed9 Ch\u1ec9 huy \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ee6y ban Qu\u00e2n v\u1ee5 Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n M\u1ef9 r\u1eb1ng B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t ra m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nghi\u00eam t\u00fac l\u00e0 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0110\u00e0i Loan tr\u01b0\u1edbc n\u0103m 2027.<\/strong> \u201c\u0110\u00e0i Loan r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng tham v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u00f3\u201d, \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o. \u201cV\u00e0 t\u00f4i ngh\u0129 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda n\u00e0y hi\u1ec7n h\u1eefu trong th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 n\u00e0y, m\u00e0 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 trong s\u00e1u n\u0103m t\u1edbi<\/strong>\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u00e0y, v\u1ed1n thu h\u00fat s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u1edbn t\u1ea1i Washington \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 \u201cC\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Davidson<\/strong>\u201d, \u0111\u00e3 nhanh ch\u00f3ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf. Trong v\u00f2ng m\u1ed9t n\u0103m, Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00ea duy\u1ec7t 7,1 t\u1ef7 USD cho S\u00e1ng ki\u1ebfn R\u0103n \u0111e Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp, nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong vi\u1ec7c ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 li\u1ec1u l\u0129nh c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u0169ng ch\u1ea1y \u0111ua \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u1eeb B\u1eafc Kinh. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 cung c\u1ea5p nhi\u1ec1u h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 v\u1ec1 ngo\u1ea1i giao, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 an ninh cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia k\u1ef3 c\u1ef1u v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eafc nh\u1edf c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ea5n an Trung Qu\u1ed1c r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 kh\u00f4ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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H\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m qua, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u1eb7t nghi v\u1ea5n v\u1ec1 C\u1eeda s\u1ed5 Davidson. H\u1ecd cho r\u1eb1ng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c ch\u01b0a s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng cho m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u2014 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng l\u00fd do ch\u00ednh \u0111\u00e1ng cho nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00f3<\/strong>. M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1ed9 tr\u00ean c\u1ea1n theo sau l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ecba h\u00ecnh nhi\u1ec1u n\u00fai non nh\u01b0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c c\u1ef1c l\u1edbn v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang sa l\u1ea7y v\u00e0o c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t thanh tr\u1eebng khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh c\u1ea5p cao b\u1ecb b\u00e3i nhi\u1ec7m. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 v\u00e0 h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Nga t\u1ea1i Ukraine \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh s\u1ef1 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp qu\u1ea3n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 v\u00e0 k\u1ebft c\u1ee5c th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t<\/strong>. Thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y cho r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f2n nhi\u1ec1u \u01b0u ti\u00ean kh\u00e1c, khi\u1ebfn \u0110\u00e0i Loan kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eb1m trong ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ngh\u1ecb s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft n\u00e0y b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 l\u00e0 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025.<\/strong> Trong n\u0103m qua, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd v\u1ec1 t\u00ednh t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 tranh c\u00e3i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1i m\u00e0 h\u1ecd g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u201ct\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t\u201d v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/mark><\/strong> D\u00f9 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ho\u00e0i nghi s\u1ebd n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c lu\u00f4n tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t: l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y Trung Qu\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0o \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3. Gi\u1edbi ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Trung Qu\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng tin r\u1eb1ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0110\u00e0i Loan s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra, v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra n\u1ebfu \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng khi\u00eau kh\u00edch B\u1eafc Kinh. \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 m\u1edbi n\u00e0y l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1eb1ng T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump ch\u1eb3ng quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1eb1ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. C\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam cho nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i t\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t ki\u00ean tr\u00ec c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u1eed tri d\u00e0nh cho nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u00e0i Loan L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c.<\/mark><\/strong> N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai.<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed khi nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 n\u1ed9i t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i c\u00f9ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh \u2014 khi \u201cnh\u1eefng c\u01a1n b\u00e3o ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o\u201d h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u t\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eebng kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c. <\/mark><\/strong>V\u1edbi b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, m\u1ed9t c\u01a1n b\u00e3o ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1edbm h\u01a1n m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngh\u0129.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Di s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp<\/h4>\n\n\n
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M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 th\u1ecb cho Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Trung Qu\u1ed1c (PLA) ph\u1ea3i s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1eb1ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2027, nh\u01b0ng th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o \u0111\u00fang n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3. \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ea3ng l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 21 v\u00e0o m\u00f9a thu n\u0103m 2027,<\/mark><\/strong> v\u00e0 trong ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u01b0u ti\u00ean h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i.<\/mark> M\u1ecdi quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u ch\u00fang c\u00f3 g\u00e2y ra d\u00f9 ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nh\u1ecf nh\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb hay kh\u00f4ng. V\u1ec1 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ea5t, \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng, do \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh quan tr\u1ecdng n\u00e0o c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 l\u00e0m x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n th\u1ebf c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c mong manh trong n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ed9i th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u00e1c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng n\u0103m 2027 c\u00f2n quan tr\u1ecdng v\u00ec m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do kh\u00e1c: n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft th\u00fac nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 ba c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp. <\/mark><\/strong>C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch k\u1ebf v\u1ecb cho T\u1eadp, ng\u01b0\u1eddi khi \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd 74 tu\u1ed5i, tuy l\u1eb7ng l\u1ebd nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra. Thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 T\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng b\u00e0n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u00fac, nh\u01b0ng s\u1edbm nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2027, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1eeb b\u1ecf m\u1ed9t trong ba vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o cao nh\u1ea5t: Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch n\u01b0\u1edbc, T\u1ed5ng b\u00ed th\u01b0 v\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u00e2n \u1ee7y Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng<\/strong>. Sau \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng s\u1ebd d\u1ea7n t\u1eeb b\u1ecf c\u00e1c ch\u1ee9c v\u1ee5 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i, v\u1edbi t\u00f9y ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 ho\u1eb7c h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u00fac n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1949, gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c chuy\u1ec3n giao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c nhau \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ba v\u1ecb tr\u00ed then ch\u1ed1t n\u00e0y. Mao Tr\u1ea1ch \u0110\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 r\u1eddi gh\u1ebf Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1959 sau nh\u1eefng s\u00f3ng gi\u00f3 trong n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ea3ng, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn n\u1eafm gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9c T\u1ed5ng b\u00ed th\u01b0 v\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Qu\u00e2n \u1ee7y Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110\u1ebfn n\u0103m 1989, \u0110\u1eb7ng Ti\u1ec3u B\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e0n giao c\u1ea3 ba tr\u1ecdng tr\u00e1ch n\u00e0y cho Giang Tr\u1ea1ch D\u00e2n, d\u00f9 sau \u0111\u00f3 \u00f4ng v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c t\u1ed1i th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf h\u1eadu tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng qua \u1ee6y ban C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng, m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 quan g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c b\u1eadc l\u00e3o th\u00e0nh c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng. V\u00e0o n\u0103m 2002, Giang Tr\u1ea1ch D\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 r\u1eddi b\u1ecf ch\u1ee9c Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng b\u00ed th\u01b0 nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn gi\u1eef quy\u1ec1n l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i th\u00eam ba n\u0103m, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a H\u1ed3 C\u1ea9m \u0110\u00e0o. Cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u00ecnh, H\u1ed3 C\u1ea9m \u0110\u00e0o \u0111\u00e3 b\u00e0n giao \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi c\u1ea3 ba v\u1ecb tr\u00ed cho T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh khi v\u1ec1 h\u01b0u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh k\u1ebf v\u1ecb b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u s\u1edbm, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n T\u1eadp s\u1ebd t\u1eeb b\u1ecf ch\u1ee9c Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc, v\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u00f3 \u00edt quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c nh\u1ea5t trong ba ch\u1ee9c danh.<\/mark><\/strong> Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c b\u00e0n giao b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ch\u1ee9c danh n\u00e0o c\u0169ng s\u1ebd \u0111e d\u1ecda \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng. V\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n t\u00e1n, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 n\u00e0o nh\u1eb1m ti\u1ebfp qu\u1ea3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u1ecb ho\u00e3n l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u0103m 2027 s\u1ebd tr\u00f4i qua v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c T\u1eadp b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n. <\/strong>T\u1eadp kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i b\u01b0\u1edbc sang m\u1ed9t b\u00ean, c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u2014 \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cKPI\u201d then ch\u1ed1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh cho T\u1eadp, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u1ec1n nhi\u1ec7m n\u00e0o. Nh\u01b0ng T\u1eadp, h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u00e0o tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y, \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0o khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5. N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u201ct\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t\u201d, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd n\u1eafm l\u1ea5y n\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e2y gi\u1edd ho\u1eb7c kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd<\/h4>\n\n\n
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Cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, l\u00fd do c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n khi\u1ebfn T\u1eadp ch\u01b0a s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan l\u00e0 v\u00ec ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch nh\u01b0 v\u1eady c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. <\/mark>C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng n\u00e0y lu\u00f4n ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c<\/mark><\/strong>. Hi\u1ec7n nay, Trung Qu\u1ed1c tin r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 n\u00e0o th\u1edd \u01a1 v\u1edbi \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 \u00edt c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng can thi\u1ec7p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0o eo bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00e0i Loan h\u01a1n Donald Trump. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, v\u1ed1n \u01b0u ti\u00ean T\u00e2y B\u00e1n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u201ckhuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng kh\u00f4ng can thi\u1ec7p\u201d, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam cho nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y khi l\u1edd \u0111i vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh danh Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda hay th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9. Ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 im l\u1eb7ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 bao v\u00e2y \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 2025 c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00edch l\u1ec7. Sau \u0111\u00f3, v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 1, quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u1eaft gi\u1eef T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Venezuela Nicol\u00e1s Maduro c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111\u00e3 x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 \u1edf T\u00e2y B\u00e1n c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i trong c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u2014 v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u2014 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ec9 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i trong ba n\u0103m t\u1edbi.<\/strong> S\u1ef1 xoay tr\u1ee5c n\u00e0y th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1ee5i t\u00e0n sau cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 11 n\u0103m nay, n\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 gi\u00e0nh quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 Trump m\u1ea5t \u0111i \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c. Do \u0111\u00f3, c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i l\u00e0 c\u00f3 h\u1ea1n: Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 Washington l\u1ea1i t\u1ecf ra ng\u1ea7n ng\u1ea1i can thi\u1ec7p v\u00ec \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc nay, Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn ki\u00ean tr\u00ec v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u01b0\u1eddng k\u1ef3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean logic r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t khi B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1eb7t M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 nghi\u1ec5m nhi\u00ean ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n Washington b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan. <\/strong>T\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn l\u1ea1c quan n\u00e0y t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m trong n\u0103m \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch COVID-19, khi B\u1eafc Kinh tin r\u1eb1ng \u201c\u0111\u00f4ng th\u1ecbnh t\u00e2y suy\u201d, theo c\u00e1ch n\u00f3i ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd s\u1edbm c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea5t c\u1eb3ng M\u1ef9 ra kh\u1ecfi khu v\u1ef1c. Tuy nhi\u00ean, h\u01a1n s\u00e1u n\u0103m c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c v\u1eeba qua \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng m\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c mong \u0111\u1ee3i kh\u00f4ng di\u1ec5n ra nhanh nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd t\u01b0\u1edfng. Thay v\u00ec ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111ang nh\u1eadn ra r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 th\u1edd \u01a1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Washington c\u00f3 khi l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ecd hi\u1ec7n th\u1ef1c h\u00f3a gi\u1ea5c m\u1ed9ng t\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Nga t\u1ea1i Ukraine c\u0169ng g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 b\u1ecb ph\u00e2n t\u00e2m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng: ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Biden \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c v\u00e0o Trung Qu\u1ed1c nh\u01b0 mong mu\u1ed1n, c\u00f2n ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump th\u1ee9 hai l\u1ea1i nghi\u00eang v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean an ninh n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0 T\u00e2y B\u00e1n c\u1ea7u.<\/mark><\/strong> Ch\u1eebng n\u00e0o s\u1ef1 ch\u00fa \u00fd v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f2n sa l\u1ea7y t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, Washington s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng \u00edt m\u1eb7n m\u00e0 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ea1i Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Ukraine \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft, l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd tan bi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Trump c\u0169ng gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e2y x\u00e1o tr\u1ed9n ch\u00ednh tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 \u0110\u00e0i Loan. N\u0103m 2025, Trump \u00e1p thu\u1ebf 20% l\u00ean h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0110\u00e0i Loan; trong th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 250 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t chip t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 15%. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 h\u00f2a ho\u00e3n v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1edd \u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng \u0111ang t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn l\u1edbn v\u1edbi Trung Qu\u1ed1c, n\u01a1i nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed5i b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ea5p thu\u1eadn l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u1ec1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/strong> Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00e1ng \u0111\u00f2n m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n Ti\u1ebfn c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o L\u1ea1i Thanh \u0110\u1ee9c, ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh lu\u00f4n kh\u00f4ng tin t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 coi l\u00e0 k\u1ebb th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp. M\u00f9a h\u00e8 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a L\u1ea1i nh\u1eb1m b\u00e3i mi\u1ec5n c\u00e1c l\u1eadp ph\u00e1p vi\u00ean thu\u1ed9c phe \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp Qu\u1ed1c D\u00e2n \u0110\u1ea3ng \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, khi\u1ebfn uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng c\u00e0ng s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m.<\/strong> S\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u c\u1ee7a d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn \u0110\u00e0i Loan ti\u1ebfp th\u00eam hy v\u1ecdng cho B\u1eafc Kinh r\u1eb1ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n n\u01a1i \u0111\u00e2y cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111ang quay l\u01b0ng v\u1edbi c\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u0129nh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n Ti\u1ebfn v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn t\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n

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T\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m then ch\u1ed1t n\u00e0y, b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0o t\u1eeb ph\u00eda \u0110\u00e0i Loan b\u1ecb coi l\u00e0 khi\u00eau kh\u00edch \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ng\u00f2i ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng d\u1eef d\u1ed9i t\u1eeb Trung Qu\u1ed1c. Minh ch\u1ee9ng l\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 12, khi M\u1ef9 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 11,1 t\u1ef7 USD cho \u0110\u00e0i Loan, ch\u1ec9 11 ng\u00e0y sau, Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai cu\u1ed9c t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn m\u00f4 ph\u1ecfng phong t\u1ecfa h\u00f2n \u0111\u1ea3o. D\u00f9 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u00f3 gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb l\u1edbn, B\u1eafc Kinh coi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch Trump th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cam k\u1ebft b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Cu\u1ed9c t\u1eadp tr\u1eadn th\u00e1ng 12, quy m\u00f4 nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay, l\u00e0 l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 b\u1ea3y Trung Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f4 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m c\u1ee7a b\u00e0 Nancy Pelosi n\u0103m 2022 \u2014 t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng b\u01b0\u1edbc leo thang trong vi\u1ec7c t\u1ed5ng duy\u1ec7t cho m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch chi ph\u00ed \u2013 l\u1ee3i \u00edch<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n Trung Qu\u1ed1c v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o v\u1ed1n c\u00f3 b\u1ea3n t\u00ednh ng\u1ea1i r\u1ee7i ro. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, canh b\u1ea1c c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn, h\u1ecd c\u00e0ng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng. V\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ea1i nh\u01b0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00f3ng v\u1ed9i. <\/strong>Tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng, h\u1ecd c\u1ea7n nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn cho hai c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi: Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh v\u00e0 th\u1eafng ch\u01b0a? V\u00e0 qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi c\u00e1c h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y ch\u01b0a?<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Quan \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn cho r\u1eb1ng PLA r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi M\u1ef9. T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t cu\u1ed9c thanh tr\u1eebng c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh c\u1ea5p cao, l\u00e0m lung lay tinh th\u1ea7n v\u00e0 nhu\u1ec7 kh\u00ed qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i. C\u00e1c s\u0129 quan cao c\u1ea5p \u0111ang lo cho t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh, khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u00e2y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m th\u00edch h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1eed th\u00e1ch l\u00f2ng trung th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong m\u1ed9t s\u1ee9 m\u1ec7nh s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, vi\u1ec7c thanh tr\u1eebng c\u00e1c t\u01b0\u1edbng l\u0129nh t\u1eeb Qu\u00e2n \u0111o\u00e0n 31 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng t\u01b0\u1edbng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c v\u00e0 kinh nghi\u1ec7m v\u1ec1 t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00e0i Loan nh\u1ea5t \u2014 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ee9t g\u00e3y nh\u1eefng kinh nghi\u1ec7m th\u1ef1c ti\u1ec5n qu\u00fd b\u00e1u.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u c\u1ee7a PLA ch\u1ec9 mang t\u00ednh t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i, t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd l\u00e0 ai.<\/strong> N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, PLA ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e8 b\u1eb9p l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan. PLA s\u1edf h\u1eefu h\u01a1n hai tri\u1ec7u qu\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c, \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o con s\u1ed1 170.000 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan. Ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 247 t\u1ef7 USD, trong khi c\u1ee7a \u0110\u00e0i Loan n\u0103m 2026, d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh 16%, v\u1eabn ch\u1ec9 v\u1ecfn v\u1eb9n 31 t\u1ef7 USD. \u0110\u00e0i Loan \u0111\u00e3 th\u00f4ng qua m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng b\u1ed5 sung \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t tr\u1ecb gi\u00e1 40 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ec3 chi tr\u1ea3 cho t\u1eadn t\u00e1m n\u0103m, k\u00e9o d\u00e0i t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2026 \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ebft n\u0103m 2033. S\u1ef1 ch\u00eanh l\u1ec7ch v\u1ec1 binh l\u1ef1c l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thu h\u1eb9p kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch. Trump v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 \u0110\u00e0i Loan hay kh\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 y\u1ebfu \u0111i r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Vi\u1ec7c Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i hay kh\u00f4ng c\u0169ng t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9. N\u1ebfu B\u1eafc Kinh tin r\u1eb1ng sau khi h\u1ecd t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan, Washington v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh s\u1ebd \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf l\u00ean Trung Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y d\u1eebng cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o d\u1ecbp kh\u00e1c.<\/mark><\/strong> Nh\u01b0ng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u1edbi Trump, B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 qu\u00e2n b\u00e0i \u0111\u1ea5t hi\u1ebfm v\u00e0 thu\u1ebf quan tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a \u0111\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c Washington ph\u1ea3i nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9. Sau th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i n\u00e0y, B\u1eafc Kinh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 coi c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t ti\u1ec1m t\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c v\u1eeba ph\u1ea3i, trong khi kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng li\u00ean minh c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1ea1i. <\/strong>H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, trong n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c d\u00e0n x\u1ebfp h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh gi\u1eefa Nga v\u00e0 Ukraine, Trump \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c y\u00eau s\u00e1ch v\u1ec1 l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Nga. V\u00ec Trung Qu\u1ed1c coi \u0110\u00e0i Loan n\u1eb1m g\u1ecdn trong v\u00f9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, n\u00ean ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 kh\u00edch l\u1ec7 l\u1edbn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c: hi\u1ec7n ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y Trung Qu\u1ed1c huy \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n, chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb h\u1eadu c\u1ea7n hay thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0o cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng s\u1eafp x\u1ea3y ra. Tuy nhi\u00ean, trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9 B\u1eafc Kinh tr\u00ec ho\u00e3n t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng m\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i, v\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh t\u1ef1 tin v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201ct\u00e1i th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t trong h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d \u2014 r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 kh\u1eafc khi\u1ebfn \u0110\u00e0i Loan mu\u1ed1n s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp<\/strong>. Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111ang thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u2014 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n v\u00ec cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn nh\u1eefng n\u0103m qua \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea3o l\u1ed9n l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n v\u00ec ni\u1ec1m tin v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c d\u00f9ng v\u0169 l\u1ef1c \u0111ang t\u0103ng l\u00ean. Washington c\u1ea7n nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i \u0111ang t\u1ea1o ra th\u1ee9 m\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 coi l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ng\u00e0n n\u0103m c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ec3 thu h\u1ed3i \u0110\u00e0i Loan.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

YUN SUN <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Trung Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ea1i Trung t\u00e2m Stimson.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/02\/07\/nam-2026-la-thoi-diem-vang-de-trung-quoc-xam-luoc-dai-loan\/#more-65578<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n: Yun Sun, \u201cA Perfect Storm for Taiwan in 2026?\u201d, Foreign Affairs, 23\/01\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy N\u0103m 2021, \u0110\u00f4 \u0111\u1ed1c H\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 Philip Davidson, khi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh B\u1ed9 Ch\u1ec9 huy \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u1ee6y ban Qu\u00e2n v\u1ee5 Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n M\u1ef9\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25258,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9],"tags":[165,118,212,168,119,82,98],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-27756","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-dai-loan","tag-hoa-ky","tag-kinh-te","tag-trung-cong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27756","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27756"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27756\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28031,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27756\/revisions\/28031"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/25258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27756"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27756"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27756"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}