{"id":27988,"date":"2026-03-02T05:50:50","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T05:50:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27988"},"modified":"2026-03-02T05:50:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T05:50:52","slug":"my-tan-cong-iran-phan-tich-dong-co-va-trien-vong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=27988","title":{"rendered":"M\u1ef9 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran: Ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u01a1 v\u00e0 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng<\/strong>
Steven Simon<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong>\u00a0Steven Simon, \u201cAmerica\u2019s attack on Iran turns a taboo into a method,\u201d\u00a0Economist<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>,\u00a0<\/em>28\/02\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hi\u1ebfm khi ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed9c tranh c\u00e3i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran v\u1eeba tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn. V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 28\/02, M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp Iran, c\u00f2n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Tehran \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda kh\u1eafp khu v\u1ef1c; v\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac gi\u1ee5c ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Iran \u201cti\u1ebfp qu\u1ea3n\u201d ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u2013 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n sang thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9.<\/mark><\/strong> Tuy nhi\u00ean, ranh gi\u1edbi th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. H\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch Midnight Hammer (B\u00faa \u0110\u00eam) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e1y bay n\u00e9m bom B-2 v\u00e0 t\u00ean l\u1eeda Tomahawk nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Iran t\u1ea1i Fordow, Natanz, v\u00e0 Isfahan, ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t n\u1eeda th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 ng\u1ea7n ng\u1ea1i t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng l\u00f5i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Iran<\/mark>. Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea5m k\u1ef5 v\u1ed1n t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i su\u1ed1t h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0111\u1eabm m\u00e1u do Iran b\u1ea3o tr\u1ee3 nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u1edf Lebanon v\u00e0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi. L\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea5m k\u1ef5 b\u1ecb ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng cho m\u1ed9t k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean m\u1edbi.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Trong nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7, Washington \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi Iran m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp \u2013 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch b\u00ed m\u1eadt, chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch kh\u00f4ng gian m\u1ea1ng, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m v\u0169 trang \u2013 v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 giao tranh tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n. Nh\u01b0ng h\u1ecd tr\u00e1nh t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng th\u1eb3ng v\u00e0o l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y.<\/strong> S\u1ef1 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u00fd do: n\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 Iran tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a, nguy c\u01a1 kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u, v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c r\u1eb1ng leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng th\u00ec d\u1ec5 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u h\u01a1n l\u00e0 d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i. <\/mark><\/strong>S\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn cho b\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfn n\u00e0y d\u1ec5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ec7n minh h\u01a1n v\u00e0 c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 tr\u00e1nh kh\u1ecfi h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.<\/mark><\/strong> V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c sang t\u00ednh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ecbnh. C\u01a1 quan N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Nguy\u00ean t\u1eed Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IAEA) cho bi\u1ebft h\u1ecd hi\u1ec7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c minh li\u1ec7u Iran \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00ecnh ch\u1ec9 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u uranium hay ch\u01b0a, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed v\u00e0 quy m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ch\u00ednh, sau khi t\u1eebng b\u00e1o c\u00e1o c\u00f3 440,9 kg nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u t\u1edbi 60% (m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng c\u00e1ch t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i ng\u1eafn \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t c\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ed9 v\u0169 kh\u00ed) tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi b\u1ecb m\u1ea5t quy\u1ec1n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn.<\/strong> Trump kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Iran \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u201cx\u00f3a s\u1ed5\u201d v\u00e0o n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, trong khi nh\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o Iran c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u1eafp r\u00e1p xong m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 bom trong v\u00f2ng m\u1ed9t tu\u1ea7n. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0, m\u1ed9t khi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, g\u00e1nh n\u1eb7ng c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ch\u1ee9ng minh l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u: phe di\u1ec1u h\u00e2u kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng, trong khi phe b\u1ed3 c\u00e2u l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ee9ng minh m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i. <\/mark><\/strong>N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ngu\u1ed3n \u2013 v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eb1ng l\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec3 n\u00f3 t\u00edch t\u1ee5 l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch th\u1ee9 hai li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ebf tr\u1eadn r\u0103n \u0111e c\u1ee7a Iran.<\/mark><\/strong> Su\u1ed1t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta lu\u00f4n t\u00ednh to\u00e1n r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran tr\u00ean ch\u00ednh l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd l\u00e0 qu\u00e1 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m<\/strong>. Sau m\u1ed9t n\u0103m xung \u0111\u1ed9t trong khu v\u1ef1c l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu c\u00e1c m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m c\u1ee7a Iran v\u00e0 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y, t\u00ednh to\u00e1n \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i. Midnight Hammer cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ee9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 an to\u00e0n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u00f2n \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3. N\u1ed7i s\u1ee3 b\u1ecb tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a c\u00e0ng l\u00f9i xa h\u01a1n sau m\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ee3t tri\u1ec3n khai qu\u00e2n v\u00e0 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o theo sau. \u0110\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, s\u1ef1 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n tr\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, m\u00e0 gi\u1ed1ng m\u1ed9t thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01a1n.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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S\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch th\u1ee9 ba li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c li\u00ean minh<\/mark><\/strong>. C\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n quen thu\u1ed9c \u2013 Israel t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, M\u1ef9 lo s\u1ee3 b\u1ecb k\u00e9o v\u00e0o, sau \u0111\u00f3 mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng tham gia \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cl\u00e8o l\u00e1i\u201d c\u1ee5c di\u1ec7n \u2013 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n ph\u00f9 h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i. C\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c gi\u1ea3i c\u1ee9u mi\u1ec5n c\u01b0\u1ee1ng. L\u1eddi gi\u1ea3i th\u00edch h\u1ee3p l\u00fd h\u01a1n l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau. Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng mu\u1ed1n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u, nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi Israel ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u. C\u00e1i b\u1eaby, n\u1ebfu c\u00f3, l\u00e0 t\u1ef1 s\u1eadp b\u1eaby c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u1ecb s\u1eadp b\u1eaby b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Kh\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0o trong s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang. M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c th\u0103m d\u00f2 c\u1ee7a Economist\/YouGov \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2 cho th\u1ea5y 49% ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran, v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 27% \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9. <\/strong>Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00f9 \u0111\u1ecbch. \u1ede kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y, Trump t\u1ecf ra \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c. S\u1ef1 t\u1ef1 do \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh lo\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn tranh m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng \u0111ang qu\u1ea3ng b\u00e1: ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ea7u n\u00e3o thay v\u00ec chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng, n\u00e9m bom ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y thay v\u00ec \u0111\u00e1nh chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea5t \u0111ai.<\/mark><\/strong> S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n lu\u00f4n h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia M\u1ef9 b\u1edfi v\u00ec, nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1eebng ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch vi\u1ec7c Bill Clinton ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3\u00a0nh\u1eadn x\u00e9t, n\u00f3 h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 th\u1ecfa m\u00e3n m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n cam k\u1ebft \u2013 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 chuy\u1ec7n y\u00eau \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi nay v\u1eady.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0ng logic chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb1ng sau chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng quan tr\u1ecdng: s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa r\u0103n \u0111e (deterrence) v\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p (compellence)<\/mark><\/strong>. R\u0103n \u0111e c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n k\u1ebb th\u00f9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3; c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i d\u1eebng l\u1ea1i ho\u1eb7c h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra<\/strong>. C\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p l\u00e0 nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n h\u01a1n. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau b\u1ecb nh\u1eafm t\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i, trong khi b\u00ean \u0111\u01b0a ra y\u00eau s\u00e1ch ph\u1ea3i li\u00ean t\u1ee5c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng cho \u0111\u1ebfn khi c\u00f3 \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 suy chuy\u1ec3n. V\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng logic \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p \u2013 th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eafn m\u00e1c l\u00e0 \u201ch\u1ed9i ch\u1ee9ng Munich \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c\u201d \u2013 l\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7. Do \u0111\u00f3, nh\u1eefng tham v\u1ecdng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a Trump \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eafn v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 \u00fd.<\/p>\n\n\n

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B\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p sang thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 cho th\u1ea5y logic n\u00e0y leo thang nhanh nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/mark><\/strong> H\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, Trump kh\u00f4ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, d\u00f9 \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng khai \u0111\u01b0a ra \u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0y, \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi t\u1ea1i sao l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u201cL\u00e0m cho Iran V\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i Tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.\u201d<\/strong> Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, ng\u00f4n t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 kh\u00e1 c\u00f9n cho qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. C\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 khi l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng an ninh r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t, gi\u1edbi tinh hoa \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea9u, qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang xu\u1ed1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn, ho\u1eb7c ng\u01b0\u1eddi ngo\u00e0i chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 v\u00e0 x\u00e1c l\u1eadp ng\u01b0\u1eddi k\u1ebf nhi\u1ec7m. N\u00e9m bom c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eadp t\u1eaft ch\u00fang.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n ban \u0111\u1ea7u n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00ecnh dung ra ba con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9; nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed7i con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ec1u v\u01b0\u1edbng ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eefng tr\u1edf ng\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3. Vi\u1ec7c ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ea7u n\u00e3o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t nh\u1eefng r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t trong gi\u1edbi tinh hoa n\u1ebfu qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh k\u1ebf v\u1ecb tr\u1edf n\u00ean h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o \u0111\u00e3 d\u00e0nh nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng d\u1ef1ng c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf d\u1ef1 ph\u00f2ng trong b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y ch\u1ec9 huy c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, c\u00f9ng m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u1ec7 binh \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thi\u1ebft k\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef cho h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng g\u1eafn k\u1ebft l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi nhau d\u01b0\u1edbi ch\u00ednh \u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1eeb b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c bi\u1ec3u t\u00ecnh qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang \u0111\u00fang l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 di\u1ec5n ra v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7y nhi\u1ec7t huy\u1ebft, nh\u01b0ng c\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a s\u1ef1 t\u1ee9c gi\u1eadn c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ch\u00fang th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9.<\/strong> V\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn tranh c\u00f3 c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft \u2013 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, nh\u01b0ng th\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1eadp t\u1eaft thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady.<\/strong> Trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a Iran, vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 th\u1ee7 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb d\u1ec5 x\u1ea3y ra h\u01a1n l\u00e0 n\u1ed5i d\u1eady, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n ch\u1ec9 bi\u1ebft c\u1ed1 th\u1ee7 th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n giao n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u2013 m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn trong \u0111\u00f3 nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o t\u1ed3n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch hy sinh c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u2013 \u0111\u00f4i khi s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean kh\u1ea3 thi khi chi\u1ebfn tranh, c\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5.<\/strong> Nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi m\u1ed9t l\u1ed1i tho\u00e1t \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady: nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o v\u1ec1 an to\u00e0n c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn thay v\u00ec m\u1ed9t t\u00f2a \u00e1n. Nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi l\u1ebd h\u00f9ng h\u1ed3n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec7t ti\u00eau m\u1ecdi \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o nh\u01b0 v\u1eady. N\u1ebfu nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi trong cu\u1ed9c tin r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn l\u01b0u \u0111\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c b\u1ecb truy t\u1ed1, h\u1ecd s\u1ebd chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u thay v\u00ec th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng. V\u00e0 n\u1ebfu ng\u01b0\u1eddi Iran th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 n\u1ed5i d\u1eady, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed5i d\u1eady \u0111\u00f3 b\u1ecb nghi\u1ec1n n\u00e1t, ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc b\u1ecb chia c\u1eaft trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn, th\u00ec M\u1ef9 r\u1ea5t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 b\u1ecf m\u1eb7c n\u00f3. V\u1edbi c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau b\u1eb1ng l\u1eddi n\u00f3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 l\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh, h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c t\u1ef1 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n

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N\u1ebfu s\u1ef1 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn, ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n \u2013 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u1ec1 l\u00e0m gi\u00e0u uranium, thanh tra, x\u1eed l\u00fd kho d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef \u2013 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3m nh\u1eb9 tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t v\u00e0 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch<\/mark><\/strong>. Nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn b\u1ecb v\u1eaft ki\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng b\u1ecb d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn trong n\u01b0\u1edbc cho l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ecdng s\u00fang. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ph\u00f2ng b\u1ecb, v\u00e0 t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 ch\u00fang. C\u00e2u h\u1ecfi s\u00e2u xa h\u01a1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u bom \u0111\u1ea1n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta k\u00fd v\u00e0o th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn hay kh\u00f4ng. M\u00e0 l\u00e0 li\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c m\u1eb7c c\u1ea3 b\u1ecb \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh sau khi n\u1ed7i \u0111au ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t hay kh\u00f4ng. N\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1m s\u00e1t li\u00ean t\u1ee5c, m\u1ed9t l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1ng tin c\u1eady, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c h\u00ecnh ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c vi ph\u1ea1m, \u201cth\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng\u201d s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng l\u1eb7ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ebfp theo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch B\u00faa \u0111\u00eam \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua m\u1ed9t ranh gi\u1edbi. Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t bi\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t r\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c. N\u1ebfu ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Iran s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5, th\u00ec g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 do c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u01b0\u1ee1ng ch\u1ebf n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t \u2013 ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i g\u00e2y ra. N\u1ebfu n\u00f3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i, Trump ph\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh xem n\u00ean \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng theo c\u00e1ch h\u1eb9p n\u00e0o v\u00e0 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, hay theo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ed9t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau mang t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ea1o l\u00fd v\u1ed1n s\u1ebd k\u1ebft th\u00fac b\u1eb1ng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng leo thang ho\u1eb7c t\u1eeb b\u1ecf.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1ecbp \u0111i\u1ec7u c\u0169 \u2013 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1n ti\u1ebfp, nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3ng ng\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n, s\u1ef1 k\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ecbch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi h\u00f3c b\u00faa h\u01a1n: s\u1ef1 c\u01b0\u1ee1ng \u00e9p c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i bao l\u00e2u tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi n\u00f3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng m\u1edbi?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steven Simon <\/strong>
Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u vi\u00ean t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7n An ninh To\u00e0n c\u1ea7u Davidson thu\u1ed9c \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Dartmouth, t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch \u201cGrand Delusion: The Rise and Fall of American Ambition in the Middle East,\u201d v\u00e0 t\u1eebng gi\u1eef ch\u1ee9c gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c c\u1ea5p cao t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/03\/01\/my-lai-tan-cong-iran-phan-tich-dong-co-va-trien-vong\/#more-65888<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0Steven Simon, \u201cAmerica\u2019s attack on Iran turns a taboo into a method,\u201d\u00a0Economist,\u00a028\/02\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng Hi\u1ebfm khi ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n l\u1ea1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 mang \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9. Cu\u1ed9c tranh c\u00e3i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran v\u1eeba tr\u1edf\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":6997,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9],"tags":[165,118,212,297,119,209,82,226],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-27988","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-do-thai","tag-hoa-ky","tag-iran","tag-kinh-te","tag-xa-hoi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27988","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=27988"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27988\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":27989,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/27988\/revisions\/27989"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/6997"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=27988"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=27988"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=27988"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}