{"id":28128,"date":"2026-03-22T05:11:09","date_gmt":"2026-03-22T05:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28128"},"modified":"2026-03-22T05:25:52","modified_gmt":"2026-03-22T05:25:52","slug":"chien-luoc-leo-thang-cua-iran-se-khong-thanh-cong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28128","title":{"rendered":"Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c leo thang c\u1ee7a Iran s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng<\/strong>
Raphael S. Cohen<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong>\u00a0Raphael S. Cohen, \u201cIran\u2019s Escalation Strategy Won\u2019t Work,\u201d\u00a0Foreign Policy<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>,\u00a0<\/em>16\/03\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00f3i quen \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Tehran t\u1eebng mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb kh\u00e1c.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran lu\u00f4n bao h\u00e0m m\u1ed9t v\u00e1n c\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u1ea7m r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 leo thang.<\/strong> <\/mark>Trong ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn n\u1eeda th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 qua, v\u00e1n b\u00e0i n\u00e0y ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u00e3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. D\u00f9 l\u00e0 b\u1eaft gi\u1eef con tin t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 qu\u00e1n M\u1ef9 \u1edf Tehran, \u0111\u00e1nh bom doanh tr\u1ea1i Th\u1ee7y qu\u00e2n L\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn M\u1ef9 \u1edf Beirut v\u00e0 khu nh\u00e0 \u1edf c\u1ee7a Kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, hay t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho c\u00e1c l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m t\u1eeb Afghanistan \u0111\u1ebfn Gaza v\u00e0 Iraq, h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Iran, cho \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd b\u1ecb ph\u1ea3n t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y, Iran \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1eb7t v\u00e1n c\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u00e0o kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t leo thang c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y, c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 h\u1ecd \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, Iran \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y leo thang v\u00e0 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c theo ki\u1ec3u \u201c\u0103n mi\u1ebfng tr\u1ea3 mi\u1ebfng\u201d kh\u00e1 ki\u1ec1m ch\u1ebf. Sau khi M\u1ef9 ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Quds Qassem Suleimani v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2020, Iran \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o hai c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Iraq, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 n\u00e0o thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, sau Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch B\u00faa \u0110\u00eam (Midnight Hammer) v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, trong \u0111\u00f3 M\u1ef9 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Iran, Tehran \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda kh\u00e1c \u2013 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t c\u0103n c\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u1edf Qatar, m\u1ed9t l\u1ea7n n\u1eefa \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0n d\u1ef1ng \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh quan \u0111i\u1ec3m, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t xung \u0111\u1ed9t r\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n. Trong nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng n\u00e0y, Iran d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u00f4ng khai t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh h\u01a1n l\u00e0 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf n\u00e0o.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y th\u00ec kh\u00e1c. Iran \u0111\u00e3 theo \u0111u\u1ed5i c\u00e1i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u1ecdi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch thi\u1ec7n \u00fd l\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cleo thang \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng thang.\u201d H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Israel v\u00e0 M\u1ef9 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c trong khu v\u1ef1c, bao g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00e0 cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i th\u00e2n thi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n n\u00e0y \u2013 nh\u01b0 Oman, Qatar, v\u00e0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3.<\/strong> H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, Iran c\u00f2n nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, kh\u00e1ch s\u1ea1n, v\u00e0 s\u00e2n bay, nh\u1eefng huy\u1ebft m\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c. C\u00f3 l\u1ebd, h\u1ecd \u0111ang gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch g\u00e2y t\u1ed5n h\u1ea1i cho c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong khu v\u1ef1c \u2013 ch\u01b0a k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ecdi qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e2y \u2013 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c bu\u1ed9c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 l\u00e0 c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cleo thang \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng thang<\/strong>\u201d hi\u1ebfm khi hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3. Trong Chi\u1ebfn tranh V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i Iraq Saddam Hussein t\u1eebng \u0111\u1eb7t c\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch b\u1eafn t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0o Israel, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u00eau kh\u00edch n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tham chi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 \u2013 ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ed \u00edt c\u0169ng l\u00e0m ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u00f3a \u2013 li\u00ean minh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp do M\u1ef9 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, M\u1ef9 l\u1ea1i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c s\u0103n l\u00f9ng c\u00e1c b\u1ec7 ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Iraq \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c Israel kh\u00f4ng tham gia v\u00e0o xung \u0111\u1ed9t. Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch s\u0103n l\u00f9ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda Scud x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5y th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng, nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 trong vi\u1ec7c gi\u1eef Israel \u0111\u1ee9ng ngo\u00e0i cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u00e0 gi\u1eef cho li\u00ean minh ch\u1ed1ng Iraq \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

G\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y h\u01a1n, Nga c\u0169ng th\u1eed c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. Nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi \u0111e d\u1ecda ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn tranh h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a \u0110i\u1ec7n Kremlin c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh g\u1eedi vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 cho Ukraine c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Biden, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 \u0111\u00f3. Th\u00e1ng 9 n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, Nga \u0111\u00e3 cho m\u00e1y bay kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i bay v\u00e0o Ba Lan, theo \u0111\u00f3 vi ph\u1ea1m kh\u00f4ng ph\u1eadn NATO, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00ed m\u1eadt \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u0111\u1ec3 g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c bu\u1ed9c NATO ng\u1eebng h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 Ukraine. Nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0m t\u0103ng th\u00eam quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u trong vi\u1ec7c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 Ukraine v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i s\u1ef1 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cleo thang \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng thang\u201d c\u1ee7a Iran g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u0169ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3n t\u00e1c d\u1ee5ng. <\/mark><\/strong>Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng m\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1ecb n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau, bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 th\u00f4ng qua l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m \u1edf Lebanon l\u00e0 Hezbollah \u2013 Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, v\u00e0 C\u00e1c Ti\u1ec3u v\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t (UAE) \u2013 tham gia v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran c\u0169ng nhi\u1ec1u nh\u01b0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng h\u1ecd th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn<\/strong>. Suy cho c\u00f9ng, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u1eafn ph\u00e1 t\u00ean l\u1eeda c\u1ee7a Iran kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u00e1nh v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, m\u00e0 c\u00f2n v\u00e0o c\u1ea3 d\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y. \u0110\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u ban \u0111\u1ea7u cho th\u1ea5y \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi, UAE, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c \u0111ang c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m s\u00e2u s\u1eafc th\u00eam t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee1ng nan v\u1ec1 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Tehran. C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh s\u1edf h\u1eefu kho v\u0169 kh\u00ed \u0111\u00e1ng g\u1eddm c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang h\u1ecd. Ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 78 t\u1ef7 USD v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, g\u1ea5p kho\u1ea3ng ba l\u1ea7n so v\u1edbi Iran. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ch\u1ecdn kh\u00f4ng tham gia tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 theo nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c: cung c\u1ea5p t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o ho\u1eb7c \u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a Iran. C\u00e1nh c\u1eeda c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 m\u1edf ra cho s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00c2u, b\u1edfi NATO hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh ch\u1eb7n c\u00e1c t\u00ean l\u1eeda tr\u00ean b\u1ea7u tr\u1eddi Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t m\u00e1y bay kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i \u0111\u00e3 r\u01a1i t\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t c\u0103n c\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a Anh \u1edf Cyprus.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a Iran ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd l\u00e0m m\u1ea5t l\u00f2ng c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia \u1edf xa h\u01a1n. Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u2013 bao g\u1ed3m Trung Qu\u1ed1c, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u2013 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf t\u1eeb V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0, nh\u01b0ng nh\u1eefng h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y kinh t\u1ebf \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn \u1edf c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i xa x\u00f4i nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9 Latinh. D\u00f9 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng nh\u1ea5t thi\u1ebft \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt c\u1ee7a Iran s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3m t\u00ecnh t\u1eeb h\u1ecd. <\/strong>N\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran tuy\u1ec7t v\u1ecdng b\u1eaft tay th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng gi\u00fap h\u1ecd c\u00f3 th\u00eam b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea1n n\u00e0o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngay c\u1ea3 khi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y th\u00fac gi\u1ee5c M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh, th\u00ec li\u1ec7u \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 kh\u00f4ng? Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Iran v\u1eabn d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 r\u1eb1ng nh\u00f3m n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump ho\u1eb7c Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Israel Benjamin Netanyahu \u0111\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c Israel thay \u0111\u1ed5i ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch. C\u00f3 r\u1ea5t \u00edt b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ee9ng cho th\u1ea5y tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd x\u1ea3y ra.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Trump \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn v\u1edbi Iran k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi n\u01b0\u1edbc C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o n\u00e0y m\u1edbi th\u00e0nh l\u1eadp. N\u0103m 1980, \u00f4ng t\u1eebng k\u00eau g\u1ecdi can thi\u1ec7p qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng con tin. K\u1ec3 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, \u00f4ng lu\u00f4n \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng b\u00e0n tay s\u1eaft \u2013 bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 v\u0169 l\u1ef1c \u2013 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng sai ph\u1ea1m c\u1ee7a Iran. Trong nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c r\u00fat kh\u1ecfi K\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch H\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng To\u00e0n di\u1ec7n Chung, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c bi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ebfn v\u1edbi t\u00ean g\u1ecdi th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n Iran, v\u00e0 thay th\u1ebf n\u00f3 b\u1eb1ng chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u201c\u00e1p l\u1ef1c t\u1ed1i \u0111a\u201d l\u00e0m tr\u1ecdng t\u00e2m trong ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch Trung \u0110\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. \u00d4ng g\u1ecdi vi\u1ec7c ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t Suleimani l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh t\u1ef1u r\u1ef1c r\u1ee1 nh\u1ea5t trong nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0 xem c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i v\u00e0o c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Iran l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cth\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng vang d\u1ed9i.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a Netanyahu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Iran c\u0169ng nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1. \u00d4ng \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i nguy t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran su\u1ed1t h\u01a1n ba th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. T\u1eeb r\u1ea5t s\u1edbm, \u00f4ng th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n so s\u00e1nh m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t Iran c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u1edbi m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1eeb Li\u00ean X\u00f4<\/strong>. V\u00e0 gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Trump, \u00f4ng lu\u00f4n ho\u00e0i nghi v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p ngo\u1ea1i giao \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Iran. Gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y, khi Netanyahu \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00ecn th\u1ea5y c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda n\u00e0y b\u1eb1ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 thuy\u1ebft ph\u1ee5c \u00f4ng l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u00e1 t\u00ednh v\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 li\u00ean quan. Trump xem vi\u1ec7c l\u00f9i b\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 y\u1ebfu \u0111u\u1ed1i. Nh\u01b0 ch\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y v\u1edbi c\u00e1c bi\u1ec3u thu\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, \u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng quy\u1ebft li\u1ec7t h\u01a1n khi m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00f2ng d\u00e2n, g\u00e2y ra h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y kinh t\u1ebf, ho\u1eb7c g\u1eb7p ph\u1ea3i r\u00e0o c\u1ea3n. Trump v\u00e0 Netanyahu c\u0169ng cho th\u1ea5y h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u0111i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i mong mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c. C\u1ea3 hai nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111ang \u1edf trong n\u0103m b\u1ea7u c\u1eed v\u00e0 c\u00f3 l\u00fd do \u0111\u1ec3 tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd.<\/strong> Nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi th\u1ec9nh c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n khu v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c, n\u1ebfu c\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd b\u1ecb ph\u1edbt l\u1edd.<\/p>\n\n\n

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N\u1ebfu v\u00ec m\u1ed9t c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 m\u00e0 chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cleo thang \u0111\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng thang\u201d c\u1ee7a Iran t\u1ea1o ra \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u00e1p l\u1ef1c ngo\u1ea1i giao \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh \u2013 ho\u1eb7c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cao h\u01a1n, l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p gi\u1eefa d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn M\u1ef9 \u0111ang gi\u1ea3m s\u00fat v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u khi\u1ebfn Trump \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ed9 tr\u00ecnh \u2013 Tehran v\u1eabn s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n cho ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh.<\/mark><\/strong> D\u00f9 s\u1edf h\u1eefu ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ea3 t\u01a1i c\u1ee7a Iran v\u1eabn ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng quan h\u1ec7 t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1eb9p v\u1edbi ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c. \u01af\u1edbc t\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 60% th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Iran l\u00e0 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng. Tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, Trung Qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Iran, nh\u01b0ng Iraq, Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, v\u00e0 UAE c\u0169ng n\u1eb1m trong nh\u00f3m n\u0103m \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran t\u1ef1 xem m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 nhi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Trung \u0110\u00f4ng nh\u1edd v\u00e0o d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3o, d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf d\u1ed3i d\u00e0o, v\u00e0 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u1ebf ch\u1ebf c\u00f3 t\u1eeb th\u1eddi Ba T\u01b0 c\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea1i. Nh\u01b0ng th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o khu v\u1ef1c n\u1ebfu h\u1ecd ch\u1ecdn b\u1eafn ph\u00e1 c\u1ea3 b\u1ea1n l\u1eabn th\u00f9.<\/strong> Nh\u1eefng k\u00fd \u1ee9c \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i r\u1ea5t l\u00e2u, v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Iran trong th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ea1i ti\u1ebfng vang qua nhi\u1ec1u th\u1ebf h\u1ec7. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n n\u00e0y t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c sau nh\u1eefng tr\u1eadn bom c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Israel, h\u1ecd v\u1eabn s\u1ebd b\u01b0\u1edbc ra kh\u1ecfi cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u00e0y trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o h\u01a1n, y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n, v\u00e0 b\u1ecb c\u00f4 l\u1eadp h\u01a1n bao gi\u1edd h\u1ebft.<\/mark> N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, ngay c\u1ea3 khi Iran th\u1eafng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y theo ngh\u0129a h\u1eb9p, th\u00ec chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn s\u1ebd l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 gi\u00e1 r\u1ea5t \u0111\u1eaft.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u1edbi th\u00f3i quen \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Iran. C\u1ee9 gieo x\u00fac x\u1eafc \u0111\u1ee7 nhi\u1ec1u, v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t s\u1ebd ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i b\u1ea1n. Iran s\u1eafp h\u1ecdc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ef1 tr\u00e1ch m\u00ecnh.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Raphael S. Cohen <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 H\u1ecdc thuy\u1ebft t\u1ea1i D\u1ef1 \u00e1n Kh\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp \u0111o\u00e0n Rand v\u00e0 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia thu\u1ed9c Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch C\u00f4ng Rand.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/03\/21\/chien-luoc-leo-thang-cua-iran-se-khong-thanh-cong\/#more-66139<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n:\u00a0Raphael S. Cohen, \u201cIran\u2019s Escalation Strategy Won\u2019t Work,\u201d\u00a0Foreign Policy,\u00a016\/03\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng Th\u00f3i quen \u0111\u00e1nh c\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Tehran t\u1eebng mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb kh\u00e1c. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran lu\u00f4n bao h\u00e0m m\u1ed9t v\u00e1n c\u01b0\u1ee3c ng\u1ea7m r\u1eb1ng\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28130,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,769,8,12,9],"tags":[165,118,212,119,209,82],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-28128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chien-tranh","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-hoa-ky","tag-iran","tag-kinh-te"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28128","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28128"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28128\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28133,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28128\/revisions\/28133"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/28130"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28128"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28128"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28128"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}