{"id":28307,"date":"2026-04-18T20:11:21","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T20:11:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28307"},"modified":"2026-04-18T20:11:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T20:11:36","slug":"lebanon-dang-dan-sup-do","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28307","title":{"rendered":"Lebanon \u0111ang d\u1ea7n s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5<\/strong>
MAHA YAHYA<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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_______________________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Maha Yahya, \u201cLebanon\u2019s Coming Collapse\u201d, Foreign Affairs<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>, 03\/04\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebanon \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 \u2013 Israel v\u00e0 Iran.<\/strong> V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 1\/3, Naim Qassem, th\u1ee7 l\u0129nh c\u1ee7a Hezbollah \u2014 nh\u00f3m d\u00e2n qu\u00e2n Lebanon \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Tehran h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn v\u00e0 v\u0169 trang \u2014 \u0111\u00e3 cam k\u1ebft tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a vi\u1ec7c Israel \u00e1m s\u00e1t L\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o T\u1ed1i cao Ali Khamenei m\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. Hezbollah sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c tham chi\u1ebfn, ph\u00f3ng t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 drone qua bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0o Israel. L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 Israel (IDF) \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3 b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Hezbollah t\u1ea1i Lebanon<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

B\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c tham gia tr\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn, Hezbollah \u0111\u00e3 bu\u1ed9c v\u1eadn m\u1ec7nh c\u1ee7a Lebanon ph\u1ea3i g\u1eafn ch\u1eb7t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn l\u1edbn h\u01a1n n\u00e0y. Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng r\u1eb1ng Israel \u0111ang l\u1ee3i d\u1ee5ng cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng khi\u00eau kh\u00edch c\u1ee7a Hezbollah \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ec7n minh cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n \u2014 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 kh\u1ee7ng khi\u1ebfp h\u01a1n \u2014 nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o ch\u00ednh Lebanon.<\/strong> Trong th\u00e1ng qua, hai b\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng l\u1eabn nhau g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 h\u00e0ng ng\u00e0y. Hezbollah \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00f3ng t\u1eeb 1.000 \u0111\u1ebfn 1.800 t\u00ean l\u1eeda v\u00e0 drone v\u00e0o Israel; ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Israel \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch t\u00e0n kh\u1ed1c kh\u1eafp Lebanon \u2014 kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam m\u00e0 c\u00f2n \u1edf Beirut v\u00e0 Thung l\u0169ng Bekaa, v\u00f9ng n\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0u m\u1ee1 nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/mark><\/strong> Ng\u00e0y 16 th\u00e1ng 3, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng Israel, \u00f4ng Israel Katz, th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o IDF \u0111ang tri\u1ec3n khai m\u1ed9t \u201cchi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch tr\u00ean b\u1ed9 c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau\u201d v\u00e0o mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon nh\u1eb1m ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m ngh\u00ecn th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n h\u1ec7 ph\u00e1i Shiite \u0111ang th\u00e1o ch\u1ea1y quay tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 \u2014 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch m\u00e0 \u00f4ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp so s\u00e1nh v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a Israel t\u1ea1i Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t n\u00e0y n\u1ed5 ra \u0111\u00fang l\u00fac Lebanon \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t chu\u1ed7i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng d\u1ed3n d\u1eadp v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf. X\u00e3 h\u1ed9i Lebanon v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb chia r\u1ebd s\u00e2u s\u1eafc v\u1ec1 vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a Hezbollah v\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 b\u1ea3o tr\u1ee3 t\u1ea1i Tehran.<\/strong> Israel, sau khi \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y c\u00e1c c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 l\u00e0m h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u1ea3i di d\u1eddi, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang \u0111e d\u1ecda chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon; m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 quan ch\u1ee9c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n k\u00eau g\u1ecdi d\u1eddi bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u00e2u v\u00e0o l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Lebanon g\u1ea7n 16 km. Nh\u1eefng c\u00fa s\u1ed1c s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y \u0111ang l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam c\u00e1c chia r\u1ebd x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu Lebanon \u2014 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ed9t h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 nh\u01b0 v\u1eady, v\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0 th\u1ea3m h\u1ecda kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 cho qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y m\u00e0 cho c\u1ea3 khu v\u1ef1c.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00e0n \u0111\u1ea1n<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebanon v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 b\u1edfi chi\u1ebfn tranh. M\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y sau khi Hamas t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Israel v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 07 th\u00e1ng 10 n\u0103m 2023, Hezbollah \u0111\u00e3 kh\u01a1i m\u00e0o cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a ri\u00eang m\u00ecnh v\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi Israel. G\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u0103m sau \u0111\u00f3, Israel \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Hezbollah, bao g\u1ed3m vi\u1ec7c \u00e1m s\u00e1t T\u1ed5ng th\u01b0 k\u00fd Hassan Nasrallah, v\u00e0 sau \u0111\u00f3 x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c Lebanon<\/strong>. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn \u0111\u00e3 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hai th\u00e1ng sau \u0111\u00f3, Israel v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng t\u1ea1i 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ee7a Hezbollah.<\/mark><\/strong> M\u1ed9t b\u1ee9c th\u01b0 ph\u1ee5 t\u1eeb ph\u00eda M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea5p cho Israel quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Th\u1ee7 l\u00e3nh c\u1ee7a Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah<\/strong> b\u1ecb h\u1ea1 s\u00e1t t\u1ea1i Beirut trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c oanh k\u00edch<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf s\u00e2u s\u1eafc b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2019, khi cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng khi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 m\u1ea5t gi\u00e1 90% v\u00e0 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng v\u1ee1 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng. M\u1ed9t n\u0103m sau \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u1ee5 n\u1ed5 kinh ho\u00e0ng t\u1ea1i c\u1ea3ng Beirut. V\u1ee5 n\u1ed5 \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn h\u01a1n 200 ng\u01b0\u1eddi thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng, g\u00e2y ra thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i h\u01a1n 8 t\u1ef7 USD (theo \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi) v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7t ra nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m v\u00e0 tham nh\u0169ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m sau \u0111\u00f3, nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch ph\u1ea3i gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi c\u00e1c nh\u00f3m l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 b\u1ebf t\u1eafc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o gi\u00e1o ph\u00e1i t\u1ea1i Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 2 n\u0103m 2025, m\u1ed9t ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi nh\u1eadm ch\u1ee9c, l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean hy v\u1ecdng th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u1ea1ch ra m\u1ed9t con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00eda tr\u01b0\u1edbc. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n m\u1edbi, \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u l\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Joseph Aoun v\u00e0 Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nawaf Salam, \u0111\u00e3 \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia k\u1ef9 tr\u1ecb h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c phe ph\u00e1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/strong> Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 h\u1ee9a s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch t\u01b0 ph\u00e1p v\u00e0 kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft kho\u1ea3n thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ednh 11 t\u1ef7 USD trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn 2023\u20132024 v\u1edbi Israel. H\u1ecd c\u0169ng cam k\u1ebft cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd th\u1ef1c thi Ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft 1701 c\u1ee7a LHQ, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00f4ng qua v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8 n\u0103m 2006<\/mark><\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn tranh gi\u1eefa Israel v\u00e0 Hezbollah nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7. C\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n ch\u01b0a ho\u00e0n th\u00e0nh bao g\u1ed3m l\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a Hezbollah.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nawaf Salam<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh c\u1ea3i c\u00e1ch nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c trong \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 mong manh n\u00e0y l\u1ea1i \u0111ang sa l\u1ea7y v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn tranh. Lebanon \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o v\u1edbi quy m\u00f4 t\u0103ng nhanh ch\u00f3ng. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 3, qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Israel \u0111\u00e3 ra l\u1ec7nh s\u01a1 t\u00e1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u01a1n 100 th\u1ecb tr\u1ea5n v\u00e0 l\u00e0ng m\u1ea1c \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon, bao ph\u1ee7 kho\u1ea3ng 10% l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u00e1c l\u1ec7nh s\u01a1 t\u00e1n b\u1ed5 sung sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ban b\u1ed1 cho c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c m\u1edbi \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam cho \u0111\u1ebfn t\u1eadn s\u00f4ng Zahrani (s\u00e2u h\u01a1n 40km v\u00e0o l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Lebanon), c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 Thung l\u0169ng Bekaa v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng ngo\u1ea1i \u00f4 ph\u00eda Nam Beirut.<\/strong> Trong t\u1ed5ng d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 5,6 tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u1ee7a Lebanon, h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t tri\u1ec7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i di d\u1eddi, \u0111\u1ea1i \u0111a s\u1ed1 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Shiite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 tr\u00ean di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng v\u00e0 c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u00edch (bao g\u1ed3m c\u1ea3 vi\u1ec7c cho n\u1ed5 m\u00ecn c\u00e1c ng\u00f4i l\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Shiite) \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec3 quay v\u1ec1. V\u00e0 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Israel b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd mu\u1ed1n m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c, \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon. D\u00f9 Israel c\u00f3 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n c\u00e1c \u0111e d\u1ecda b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 hay kh\u00f4ng, th\u00ec nh\u1eefng h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y kinh t\u1ebf khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn Iran c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf s\u1ebd \u00edt c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch cho vi\u1ec7c ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i v\u00e0 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hezbollah kh\u00f4ng khu\u1ea5t ph\u1ee5c<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, ngay c\u1ea3 khi th\u01b0\u01a1ng vong v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 gia t\u0103ng, Hezbollah v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u b\u1ecf cu\u1ed9c. H\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng hay quay l\u1ea1i th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn n\u0103m 2024 v\u1ed1n cho ph\u00e9p Israel quy\u1ec1n t\u1ef1 do t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u1eafm m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau v\u00e0o c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m.<\/strong> (Kho\u1ea3ng 350 tay s\u00fang Hezbollah v\u00e0 127 th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n \u0111\u00e3 thi\u1ec7t m\u1ea1ng trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng nh\u01b0 v\u1eady k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn). Trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y, Israel \u0111\u00e3 san ph\u1eb3ng h\u01a1n 25 l\u00e0ng m\u1ea1c v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u1ea5n d\u1ecdc bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi. Ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 quay l\u1ea1i th\u00eam 62 th\u1ecb tr\u1ea5n kh\u00e1c trong c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c b\u1ecb Israel l\u00e0m cho tr\u1ed1ng tr\u1ea3i.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00f5 trang Hezbollah<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Lebanon v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh c\u01a1 s\u1edf \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, ban l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Hezbollah v\u1eabn t\u00e1i kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vi\u1ec7c t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn n\u00e0y nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea5u tranh sinh t\u1ed3n c\u1ee7a c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Israel t\u1ea1i Lebanon \u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam c\u00e2u chuy\u1ec7n n\u00e0y. Nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y c\u0169ng coi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 m\u1ea5t trong hai n\u0103m qua v\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u1ec7ch h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 tr\u00edch t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh c\u01a1 s\u1edf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Iran v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 ph\u1ed1i h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Lebanon r\u1ea5t mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t c\u00e1i m\u00e0 \u00f4ng Salam m\u00f4 t\u1ea3 l\u00e0 \u201cm\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u00e0n kh\u1ed1c m\u00e0 ch\u00fang t\u00f4i kh\u00f4ng mu\u1ed1n v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn\u201d. Trong n\u0103m qua, gi\u1edbi tinh hoa ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p Hezbollah, ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Iran v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh v\u1edbi Israel. V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 2 th\u00e1ng 3, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Lebanon \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed l\u00e0 c\u1ea5m c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Hezbollah, tr\u1ee5c xu\u1ea5t t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a Qu\u00e2n \u0111o\u00e0n V\u1ec7 binh C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran (IRGC) v\u00e0 h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf c\u00e1c th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn mi\u1ec5n th\u1ecb th\u1ef1c v\u1edbi Iran.<\/mark><\/strong> \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra sau hai bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c v\u00e0o n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i: ng\u00e0y 5 th\u00e1ng 8, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc trong vi\u1ec7c ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n m\u1ecdi lo\u1ea1i v\u0169 kh\u00ed tr\u00ean l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Lebanon, v\u00e0 ng\u00e0y 5 th\u00e1ng 9, giao nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ee5 cho qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Lebanon x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch th\u1ef1c thi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Song song \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u00e3 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bu\u00f4n l\u1eadu v\u0169 kh\u00ed, d\u00f2ng ch\u1ea3y t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh cho Hezbollah v\u00e0 d\u1ee1 b\u1ecf s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y \u1edf ph\u00eda Nam s\u00f4ng Litani.<\/strong> N\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. Nhi\u1ec1u t\u00ean l\u1eeda ban \u0111\u1ea7u b\u1eafn v\u00e0o Israel \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00f3ng t\u1eeb ph\u00eda B\u1eafc s\u00f4ng Litani. (Nh\u1eefng khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y l\u1ebd ra s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft trong Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n II c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p). Tu\u1ea7n qua, Lebanon \u0111\u00e3 thu h\u1ed3i t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 Iran v\u00e0 tri\u1ec7u h\u1ed3i \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i Tehran \u0111\u1ec3 tham v\u1ea5n. Tuy nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 Iran v\u1eabn \u1edf l\u1ea1i Lebanon, vi\u1ec7c ra \u0111i c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng b\u1ecb ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n b\u1edfi hai \u0111\u1ea3ng Shiite h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc, b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd s\u00e2u s\u1eafc ngay trong l\u00f2ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc Lebanon<\/mark><\/strong>. S\u1ef1 ph\u00e2n c\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u0169ng \u0111ang \u0111\u00e0o s\u00e2u. Hezbollah \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch c\u00f4ng khai ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean n\u1ed9i c\u00e1c l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n qu\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
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L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00f5 trang Hezbollah<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Lebanon \u0111\u00e3 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi Israel \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t xung \u0111\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n nay, ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u1ea5m k\u1ef5 \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7. <\/strong>Nh\u01b0ng b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng ngo\u00e0i c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn Lebanon th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong tr\u1eadn chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Iran, Hezbollah \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t chi\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qu\u00e2n b\u00e0i \u1ea9n Israel<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh ngh\u1ecb s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Israel t\u1ea1i Lebanon v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng<\/strong>. Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Israel n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd mu\u1ed1n ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t Hezbollah v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i g\u1ecdi l\u00e0 v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec7m d\u1ecdc bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed5 n\u00e1t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ng\u00f4i l\u00e0ng Lebanon; theo th\u1eddi gian, h\u1ecd c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u00e9p bu\u1ed9c m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh theo c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh. Nh\u01b0ng h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u0169ng l\u00e0 k\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ef1 h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 chia c\u1eaft n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho vi\u1ec7c chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch cho chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 t\u1ea1i Lebanon t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u00f9ng v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c n\u00e9m bom t\u1ea7m xa, Israel \u0111\u00e3 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch huy \u0111\u1ed9ng 450.000 qu\u00e2n d\u1ef1 b\u1ecb. Vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u1ea5n ngo\u00e0i bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng b\u00e1o s\u01a1 t\u00e1n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m d\u1ea5y l\u00ean lo ng\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd c\u00f3 \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 Lebanon \u1edf ph\u00eda Nam s\u00f4ng Litani.<\/strong> Th\u1eadt v\u1eady, c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Benjamin Netanyahu \u0111\u00e3 tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd: B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh Bezalel Smotrich \u0111\u00e3 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi IDF san ph\u1eb3ng c\u00e1c ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i \u00f4 ph\u00eda Nam Beirut, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi n\u00f3i r\u1eb1ng s\u00f4ng Litani n\u00ean l\u00e0 bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Israel, th\u1ef1c ch\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t s\u00e1p nh\u1eadp mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon. T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c c\u1ea7u ch\u00ednh b\u1eafc qua s\u00f4ng Litani hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb n\u00e9m bom nh\u1eb1m c\u1eaft \u0111\u1ee9t khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y kh\u1ecfi ph\u1ea7n c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc. V\u00e0 B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng N\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Israel \u0111\u00e3 k\u00eau g\u1ecdi h\u1ee7y b\u1ecf th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00fd k\u1ebft n\u0103m 2022 gi\u1eefa hai n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t tranh ch\u1ea5p v\u1ec1 ranh gi\u1edbi tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Do Th\u00e1i kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch Lebanon, 9-2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Israel th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 ti\u00eau di\u1ec7t Hezbollah v\u00e0 mang l\u1ea1i h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, th\u00ec chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i. Hezbollah tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady ch\u00ednh t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u0103m 1982 c\u1ee7a Israel v\u00e0 hai th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng mi\u1ec1n Nam sau \u0111\u00f3. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e9m bom di\u1ec7n r\u1ed9ng, nh\u1eefng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c x\u00e2m l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n ch\u1ec9 c\u00e0ng c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam l\u1eadp lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Hezbollah r\u1eb1ng kh\u00e1ng chi\u1ebfn v\u0169 trang ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Israel l\u00e0 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft. <\/strong>Nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ea1y tr\u1ed1n c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 l\u01b0u l\u1ea1c v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Gaza hay h\u00e0ng tr\u0103m ngh\u00ecn ng\u01b0\u1eddi Palestine ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p tr\u1edf v\u1ec1 nh\u00e0 k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1948 v\u00e0 1967. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 c\u01b0 d\u00e2n lo s\u1ee3 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n n\u00e0y n\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ecdn \u1edf l\u1ea1i b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nguy hi\u1ec3m t\u00ednh m\u1ea1ng. S\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u00f3 v\u1ebb nh\u01b0 c\u1ee7a Washington \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Israel \u1edf mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i. Tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i Lebanon r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Israel tha cho c\u00e1c ng\u00f4i l\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi C\u00f4ng gi\u00e1o g\u1ee3i \u00fd m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn ng\u1ea7m \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Israel trong vi\u1ec7c thanh l\u1ecdc d\u00e2n c\u01b0 h\u1ec7 ph\u00e1i Shiite kh\u1ecfi mi\u1ec1n Nam Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebanon trong hi\u1ec3m c\u1ea3nh<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi Israel c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tin r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd c\u1ee7a Lebanon l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 mong mu\u1ed1n \u2014 kh\u00f4ng kh\u00e1c g\u00ec s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a Syria trong cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn, v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu v\u00e0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111o\u1ea1t s\u1ed1 ph\u1eadn c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Baathist v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 k\u1ebb th\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed9i tr\u1eddi chung. <\/strong>Nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t Lebanon r\u01a1i v\u00e0o c\u1ea3nh h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n c\u00f9ng c\u1ef1c kh\u00f4ng mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i \u00edch cho ai, v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Lebanon kh\u00f4ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a Assad. B\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed1i \u0111a h\u00f3a v\u00e0 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i ph\u1ea3n h\u1ed3i t\u00edch c\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Lebanon trong vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c thi quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, Israel \u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a Hezbollah r\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 kh\u00e1ng chi\u1ebfn v\u0169 trang m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch li\u00ean k\u1ebft ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p Hezbollah v\u00e0 t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c c\u00e1c h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb theo k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch nh\u1eb1m k\u00eau g\u1ecdi h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh cho qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Lebanon, c\u00e1c t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 M\u1ef9 \u2014 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m t\u00ea li\u1ec7t kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng c\u1ee9u tr\u1ee3 d\u00e2n th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Israel \u0111ang l\u00e0m s\u00e2u s\u1eafc th\u00eam c\u00e1c v\u1ebft n\u1ee9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3 t\u1ea1i Lebanon v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn m\u1edbi. C\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a Israel \u0111\u00e3 k\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng gi\u00e1o ph\u00e1i. Vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t c\u00e1c khu d\u00e2n c\u01b0 ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi Shiite t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi h\u00ecnh ph\u1ea1t t\u1eadp th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc. C\u00e1c v\u1ee5 \u00e1m s\u00e1t c\u00f3 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean Hezbollah v\u00e0 IRGC t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c t\u00f2a nh\u00e0 d\u00e2n c\u01b0, kh\u00e1ch s\u1ea1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m d\u00e2n c\u01b0 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i v\u00f9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Hezbollah \u0111ang l\u00e0m gia t\u0103ng s\u1ef1 hoang mang t\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ki\u1ec3m tra nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi t\u1ecb n\u1ea1n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc t\u00ecm n\u01a1i tr\u00fa \u1ea9n; \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu v\u1ef1c, h\u1ecd t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eadn v\u00ec s\u1ee3 r\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a Israel. Vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng Shiite di d\u1eddi v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n kh\u1ecfi mi\u1ec1n Nam v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u00e0n ph\u00e1 ngo\u1ea1i \u00f4 ph\u00eda Nam Beirut s\u1ebd l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n nh\u00e2n kh\u1ea9u h\u1ecdc. Gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 3, Reuters b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u0111ang khuy\u1ebfn kh\u00edch Syria (hi\u1ec7n do ng\u01b0\u1eddi Sunni chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf) h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Hezbollah \u1edf Thung l\u0169ng Bekaa, c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng Sunni-Shiite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e2y gi\u1edd l\u00e0 l\u00fac \u0111\u1ec3 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Lebanon, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ph\u00e1 ho\u1ea1i n\u00f3. Gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p Hezbollah kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00e0i to\u00e1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1; \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 b\u00e0i to\u00e1n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb. Trong 5 th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 qua, nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u201cnh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc trong l\u00f2ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc\u201d. Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc trung \u01b0\u01a1ng c\u00f3 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n v\u00e0 v\u1eefng m\u1ea1nh t\u1ea1i Beirut m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u00e0n g\u1eafn nh\u1eefng thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ef9, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia trong khu v\u1ef1c ph\u1ea3i kh\u1ea9n c\u1ea5p k\u00ecm ch\u1ebf ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Israel v\u00e0 t\u00e1ch b\u1ea1ch Lebanon kh\u1ecfi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Iran \u2014 suy cho c\u00f9ng, vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ed3ng hai qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Iran \u2014 ho\u1eb7c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u s\u1ef1 nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 t\u1ea1i Lebanon t\u1eeb ph\u00eda Israel v\u00e0 Iran trong b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n n\u00e0o nh\u1eb1m k\u1ebft th\u00fac chi\u1ebfn tranh Iran. M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t k\u00e9o d\u00e0i s\u1ebd l\u00e0m y\u1ebfu \u0111i c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 d\u1eabn t\u1edbi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n trung \u01b0\u01a1ng. Washington ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c ngo\u1ea1i giao h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Lebanon hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. Nh\u1eefng nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u00e0y \u0111ang \u1edf v\u1ecb th\u1ebf t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 ti\u1ec1n b\u1ed1i n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y s\u1ebd bao g\u1ed3m c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc, cung c\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o cho nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n ph\u1ea3i di d\u1eddi v\u00e0 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c gi\u1ea3i gi\u00e1p v\u0169 kh\u00ed c\u1ee7a qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Lebanon. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Lebanon v\u00e0 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u00f3ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i h\u00e0ng th\u1eadp k\u1ef7 kh\u00e1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lebanon t\u1eeb l\u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 v\u0169 \u0111\u00e0i cho c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u khu v\u1ef1c (tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft l\u00e0 gi\u1eefa Israel v\u00e0 Iran, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 gi\u1eefa Iran v\u00e0 \u1ea2 R\u1eadp Saudi). \u0110\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy tho\u00e1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft ch\u1ebf v\u00e0 n\u1ed7i \u0111au kh\u1ed5 kh\u00f4ng k\u1ec3 xi\u1ebft c\u1ee7a th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n.<\/mark><\/strong> \u0110\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e9p tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i ngo\u00e0i \u00fd mu\u1ed1n c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn khu v\u1ef1c m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t. Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Lebanon \u2014 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t khao kh\u00e1t x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0 thu\u1ea7n h\u00f3a Hezbollah trong qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f3 nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea7n s\u1ef1 gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1. Nh\u01b0ng c\u1eeda s\u1ed5 n\u00e0y s\u1ebd s\u1edbm \u0111\u00f3ng l\u1ea1i n\u1ebfu Israel duy tr\u00ec th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 hung h\u0103ng c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MAHA YAHYA <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m Trung \u0110\u00f4ng Carnegie Malcolm H. Kerr.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/04\/10\/lebanon-dang-dan-sup-do\/#more-66469<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n: Maha Yahya, \u201cLebanon\u2019s Coming Collapse\u201d, Foreign Affairs, 03\/04\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy Lebanon \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa M\u1ef9 \u2013 Israel v\u00e0 Iran. V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 1\/3, Naim Qassem, th\u1ee7 l\u0129nh c\u1ee7a Hezbollah \u2014 nh\u00f3m d\u00e2n qu\u00e2n Lebanon \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c Tehran h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn v\u00e0 v\u0169 trang \u2014 \u0111\u00e3\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28310,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,769,8,12,9],"tags":[165,118,212,297,532,82,794,226],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-28307","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chien-tranh","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-do-thai","tag-hezbollah","tag-kinh-te","tag-lebanon","tag-xa-hoi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28307","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28307"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28307\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28323,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28307\/revisions\/28323"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/28310"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28307"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28307"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28307"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}