{"id":28344,"date":"2026-05-10T02:20:35","date_gmt":"2026-05-10T02:20:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28344"},"modified":"2026-05-10T02:20:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-10T02:20:37","slug":"lieu-asean-se-chao-don-myanmar-tro-lai","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28344","title":{"rendered":"Li\u1ec7u ASEAN s\u1ebd ch\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3n Myanmar tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i?<\/strong>
Derek Grossman<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u01b0\u1edbng Min Aung Hlaing, ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o phe qu\u00e2n phi\u1ec7t, th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh n\u0103m 2021, tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng qua cu\u1ed9c “b\u1ea7u c\u1eed” gi\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7u \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay, 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n<\/strong>: Derek Grossman, \u201cWill ASEAN Welcome Myanmar Back Into Its Fold?,\u201d Foreign Policy<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>, 09\/04\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m th\u1ee7 l\u0129nh cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh Min Aung Hlaing l\u00e0m T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Myanmar c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u1ed9i kh\u1ed1i.<\/mark><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Myanmar v\u1eeba ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng m\u1edbi \u2013 v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 g\u00ec ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean, \u0111\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 c\u1ef1u Th\u1ed1ng t\u01b0\u1edbng Min Aung Hlaing, ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi l\u00ean n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u00e2n c\u1eed v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 02\/2021.<\/strong> Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh \u0111\u01b0a Min Aung Hlaing chuy\u1ec3n sang v\u1ecb tr\u00ed \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o d\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xem nh\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh danh h\u00f3a v\u00e0 l\u00e0m m\u1edbi h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y, v\u1ed1n v\u1eabn \u0111ang m\u1eafc k\u1eb9t trong m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1eabm m\u00e1u.<\/p>\n\n\n

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B\u00e0 Aung Suu Kyi v\u00e0 T\u01b0\u1edbng Min Aung-Hlaing tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

T\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 28\/12 \u0111\u1ebfn ng\u00e0y 25\/01 v\u1eeba qua, Myanmar \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh di\u1ec5n ra, nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec1u xem n\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1ea3.<\/mark> C\u00e1c nh\u00f3m \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp v\u00e0 s\u1eafc t\u1ed9c thi\u1ec3u s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n \u0111i b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu. \u0110\u1ea3ng \u0110o\u00e0n k\u1ebft v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n Li\u00ean bang do qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i h\u1eadu thu\u1eabn d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfm \u01b0u th\u1ebf, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t kh\u1ed1i l\u1edbn c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng vi\u00ean kh\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau khi \u0111\u00e3 n\u1eafm trong tay Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i m\u1edbi, b\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a Min Aung Hlaing s\u1ebd l\u00e0 c\u1edfi b\u1ecf b\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n ph\u1ee5c v\u00e0 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng<\/strong>. Th\u00e1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc, \u00f4ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u00fang nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u2013 trao l\u1ea1i quy\u1ec1n ch\u1ec9 huy l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u0169 trang Myanmar cho ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u01a1 quan t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, Ye Win Oo. V\u00e0 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ph\u00ea chu\u1ea9n cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i th\u00e2n thi\u1ec7n n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ea7u Min Aung Hlaing l\u00ean l\u00e0m T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 03\/04.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thay v\u00ec b\u00e1o hi\u1ec7u m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 c\u1edfi m\u1edf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1, qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00e0n d\u1ef1ng ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed9t chi\u00eau th\u1ee9c quen thu\u1ed9c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u00ean ch\u1ebf: kho\u00e1c l\u1edbp \u00e1o d\u00e2n s\u1ef1 cho ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 cai tr\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt \u00e1p l\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, t\u00e1i g\u1eafn k\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c, v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh nh\u1eb1m che \u0111\u1eady cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1eabn \u0111ang ho\u00e0nh h\u00e0nh kh\u1eafp \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i c\u1ee7a Myanmar c\u0169ng c\u00f3 h\u1ec7 qu\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y trong Hi\u1ec7p h\u1ed9i C\u00e1c Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (ASEAN).<\/mark> Cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m Min Aung Hlaing l\u00e0m T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng, s\u1ebd ch\u1ec9 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 quan \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean kh\u00e1c \u2013 ch\u00ed \u00edt l\u00e0 Campuchia, L\u00e0o, Th\u00e1i Lan, v\u00e0 Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u2013 r\u1eb1ng t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Myanmar, \u0111\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i v\u00f2ng tay c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i. <\/strong>Qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u, nh\u01b0ng vai tr\u00f2 m\u1edbi c\u1ee7a Min Aung Hlaing nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd gi\u00fap n\u00f3 t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c.<\/p>\n\n\n

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ASEAN ngay t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed, kh\u00f4ng c\u1eed quan s\u00e1t vi\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn Mi\u1ebfn \u0110i\u1ec7n, Jan 2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

H\u1ed3i th\u00e1ng 4\/2021, v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng sau cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh \u1edf Myanmar, ASEAN <\/strong>\u2013 l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 do Brunei l\u00e0m ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch \u2013 \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ed v\u1ec1 \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u1ec1 Cu\u1ed9c Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng<\/mark><\/strong>, trong \u0111\u00f3 th\u00fac gi\u1ee5c ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c, x\u00fac ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i mang t\u00ednh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng gi\u1eefa t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean, s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c ph\u00e1i vi\u00ean ASEAN l\u00e0m trung gian, ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 nh\u00e2n \u0111\u1ea1o v\u00e0 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m Myanmar c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eb7c ph\u00e1i vi\u00ean n\u00e0y<\/strong>. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, khi kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p hay \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn trong cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9, Myanmar \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n tham gia v\u00e0o c\u00e1c ti\u1ebfn tr\u00ecnh c\u1ee7a khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN can d\u1ef1 song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 n\u00e0y. <\/mark><\/strong>Trong nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ASEAN n\u0103m 2022, Campuchia \u0111\u00e3 c\u1eed Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Hun Sen \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f4 Naypyidaw c\u1ee7a Myanmar \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i kh\u1ed1i, khi\u1ebfn \u00f4ng tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh. Trong cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p, Hun Sen \u0111\u00e3 m\u1eddi Min Aung Hlaing tham d\u1ef1 h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh ASEAN n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3 n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n v\u1ec1 \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u2013 nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ti\u1ebfn tri\u1ec3n, \u00f4ng s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i c\u1eed c\u00e1c \u201c\u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n phi ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb\u201d thay th\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Campuchia th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i v\u00ec nhi\u1ec1u l\u00fd do, nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 do n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y hi\u1ec3u sai \u00fd \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Myanmar. Ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 mu\u1ed1n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh ch\u00ednh danh qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e1p l\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng nh\u1eefng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9<\/mark><\/strong>. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a Campuchia l\u1ea1i b\u1ecb c\u1ea3n tr\u1edf b\u1edfi vi\u1ec7c thi\u1ebfu v\u1eafng m\u1ed9t l\u1ec7nh ng\u1eebng b\u1eafn ho\u1eb7c quay l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u00e2n s\u1ef1 b\u1ecb l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 \u2013 v\u1ed1n l\u00e0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u2013 v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng l\u00e1ch qua \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 chia r\u1ebd trong n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 ASEAN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u00ean c\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1ecb ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ASEAN n\u0103m 2024, L\u00e0o c\u0169ng c\u1ed1 g\u1eafng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, d\u00f9 c\u00f2n \u00e2m th\u1ea7m h\u01a1n n\u1eefa. Th\u00f4ng qua tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i v\u00e0o n\u0103m \u0111\u00f3, B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i giao L\u00e0o ch\u1ec9 l\u01b0u \u00fd \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n r\u1eb1ng t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c b\u00ean \u201ct\u00e1i kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh cam k\u1ebft c\u1ee7a ASEAN trong vi\u1ec7c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 Myanmar.\u201d Tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 n\u00e0y v\u1eabn \u0111\u1eb7t ASEAN v\u00e0o th\u1ebf ph\u1ea3i can d\u1ef1 v\u1edbi Myanmar, th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ng\u1ea7m c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 c\u1ea3 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh \u0111\u1ea7y th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1: ph\u00e1t ng\u00f4n r\u1ea5t \u00edt v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c quan h\u1ec7 ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 an ninh v\u1edbi Myanmar trong khi v\u1eabn \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u00e1c tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a ASEAN.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u00e1i Lan th\u00ec b\u00e0y t\u1ecf r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft ph\u1ea3i gi\u1eef m\u1ed9t \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2y li\u00ean l\u1ea1c c\u1edfi m\u1edf v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Myanmar. N\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Th\u00e1i Lan l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf can d\u1ef1 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u1edbi Myanmar, v\u00e0 Bangkok \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u0111\u00fang nh\u1eefng g\u00ec h\u1ecd n\u00f3i: C\u00e1c quan ch\u1ee9c c\u1ea5p cao c\u1ee7a Th\u00e1i Lan \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m Naypyidaw \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea5p Myanmar, th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi, tri\u1ec7t ph\u00e1 c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 l\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea3o tr\u1ef1c tuy\u1ebfn, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4i ph\u1ee5c th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Mi\u1ebfn \u0111i\u1ec7n: L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady chi\u1ebfm \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u1ea5n bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi, n\u0103m 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, Th\u00e1i Lan c\u00f2n t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb khu v\u1ef1c v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng \u1edf Myanmar v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tham gia c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i ASEAN, bao g\u1ed3m Bangladesh, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9.<\/strong> C\u1ea3 ba qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 chung \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi tr\u00ean b\u1ed9 v\u1edbi Myanmar v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1edbn t\u1eeb cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0a Myanmar tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i ASEAN c\u0169ng c\u00f3 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng; nh\u00f3m n\u00e0y bao g\u1ed3m Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore. v\u00e0 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i l\u00e0 Timor\u2013Leste. <\/mark>C\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y nh\u00ecn chung \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c th\u1ef1c thi nghi\u00eam ng\u1eb7t \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u1ea3 thi duy nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ec3 bu\u1ed9c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 cho ph\u00e9p ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 b\u1ecb l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i l\u00e0, Philippines \u2013 v\u1ed1n th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u1ed3ng l\u00f2ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u00ednh \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m \u2013 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y l\u1ea1i cho th\u1ea5y s\u1ef1 quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u01b0u ti\u00ean c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e0m tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y. Philippines v\u1eeba tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch ASEAN v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m nay. Trong m\u1ed9t chuy\u1ebfn th\u0103m b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd t\u1edbi Naypyidaw v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 1, Ngo\u1ea1i tr\u01b0\u1edfng Philippines Maria Theresa Lazaro d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i ch\u1ec7ch kh\u1ecfi l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng m\u00e0 ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0o n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i, v\u1ed1n nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng \u201cvi\u1ec7c ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00f4ng ph\u00e2n bi\u1ec7t ph\u1ea3i di\u1ec5n ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, Lazaro \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ebfn th\u0103m Myanmar trong th\u1eddi gian di\u1ec5n ra b\u1ea7u c\u1eed m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 n\u00e0o t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, g\u00e2y th\u1ea5t v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 ng\u1ea1c nhi\u00ean gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN kh\u00e1c v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c li\u1ec7u Philippines c\u00f3 \u0111ang chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng sang c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 n\u00e0y hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/mark><\/strong> Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 Lazaro, c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c ph\u00e1i vi\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y c\u1ee7a ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 g\u1eb7p g\u1ee1 Min Aung Hlaing, theo \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m. Nh\u01b0ng v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 n\u1eb1m \u1edf c\u1ea3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m di\u1ec5n ra cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p v\u00e0 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN kh\u00e1c r\u1eb1ng Manila \u0111ang \u01b0u \u00e1i vi\u1ec7c t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y h\u01a1n l\u00e0 v\u1edbi phe \u0111\u1ed1i l\u1eadp d\u00e2n s\u1ef1. B\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p quan \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y, Philippines v\u1eabn nh\u00ecn chung b\u00e1m s\u00e1t l\u1eadp tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng n\u00f3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1c th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean ASEAN hi\u1ec7n nay t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 Myanmar m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o. N\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c ban \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i khu v\u1ef1c nh\u1eb1m c\u00f4 l\u1eadp ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t ngo\u1ea1i giao \u2013 v\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed l\u00e0 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c lo\u1ea1i qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y ra kh\u1ecfi ASEAN \u2013 nay \u0111\u00e3 m\u1edd d\u1ea7n, thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh s\u1ebd c\u1ea3i thi\u1ec7n v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 bi\u1ec7n minh cho vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed v\u1edbi Myanmar nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn th\u1ee9c s\u00e2u s\u1eafc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u00e1i n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao h\u1ecd l\u1ea1i b\u1eaft tay v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m m\u1edbi h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh. Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e0y c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u01a1m hoa k\u1ebft tr\u00e1i b\u1edfi v\u00ec g\u1ea7n m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda s\u1ed1 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean c\u1ee7a ASEAN \u0111ang t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t l\u00fd do \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i can d\u1ef1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u1ebfu Myanmar \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0a tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i sau qu\u00e3ng th\u1eddi gian b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i x\u1eed l\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea1t, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd hoan ngh\u00eanh k\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 n\u00e0y. D\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c nh\u00ecn c\u1ee7a Trung Qu\u1ed1c, ASEAN c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00fap duy tr\u00ec s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh \u1edf Myanmar v\u00e0 t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n V\u00e0nh \u0111ai v\u00e0 Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3.<\/strong> Quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh n\u00e0y c\u0169ng c\u00f3 l\u1ee3i cho Nga v\u00ec ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u1edf Naypyidaw \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf n\u00ean th\u00e2n thi\u1ebft v\u1edbi Moscow, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh mua b\u00e1n v\u0169 kh\u00ed v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd hoan ngh\u00eanh s\u1ef1 thay \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y; h\u1ecd v\u1ed1n \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1edbi Myanmar \u0111\u1ec3 qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c xuy\u00ean bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 s\u1eafc t\u1ed9c \u1edf c\u00e1c bang gi\u00e1p bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump mu\u1ed1n ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Myanmar \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft ho\u1eb7c ch\u00ed \u00edt l\u00e0 t\u1ea1m d\u1eebng \u2013 kh\u00f4ng h\u1eb3n v\u00ec nh\u1eefng h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00e0n b\u1ea1o \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra m\u00e0 v\u00ec m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch can d\u1ef1 v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o c\u00e1c l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c khai th\u00e1c kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a ASEAN \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Myanmar kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3 thuy\u1ebft. D\u00f9 v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec7u, kh\u1ed1i v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c vi\u1ec7n d\u1eabn \u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn 5 \u0111i\u1ec3m, nh\u01b0ng ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u0111ang l\u00e1ch qua n\u00f3 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c can d\u1ef1 song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd xoay quanh s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i \u00edch qu\u1ed1c gia h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb.<\/mark><\/strong> C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a Myanmar nh\u1eadn ra v\u00e0 \u0111ang l\u1ee3i d\u1ee5ng s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y, v\u00e0 t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng l\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh c\u1ee7a ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 cai tr\u1ecb qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o ra s\u1ef1 m\u01a1 h\u1ed3 v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ee7 cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ASEAN bi\u1ec7n minh cho vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i can d\u1ef1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a quan h\u1ec7 ch\u1eadm ch\u1ea1p nh\u01b0ng \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn l\u00e0 do s\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e0n k\u1ebft trong ASEAN gi\u1edd \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t v\u00e0 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y c\u1ee7a kh\u1ed1i \u0111\u00e3 suy gi\u1ea3m, v\u00e0 ph\u1ea7n kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 do \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y b\u1edfi c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c b\u00ean ngo\u00e0i kh\u1ed1i.<\/strong> N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c xu h\u01b0\u1edbng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c Myanmar cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng t\u00e1i h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ed9t b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ed9t ph\u00e1 v\u1ec1 ngo\u1ea1i giao m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u01a1n gi\u1ea3n l\u00e0 ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c h\u00f3a m\u1ed9t th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf: ASEAN \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00edch \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Derek Grossman <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1o s\u01b0 khoa h\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 quan h\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Nam California, nh\u00e0 s\u00e1ng l\u1eadp v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n Indo-Pacific Solutions. \u00d4ng t\u1eebng l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c t\u1ea1i Rand Corp v\u00e0 l\u00e0 c\u1ef1u c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a Tr\u1ee3 l\u00fd B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng M\u1ef9 v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 an ninh Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u00e0 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/04\/16\/lieu-asean-se-chao-don-myanmar-tro-lai\/#more-66517<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n: Derek Grossman, \u201cWill ASEAN Welcome Myanmar Back Into Its Fold?,\u201d Foreign Policy, 09\/04\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Nguy\u1ec5n Th\u1ecb Kim Ph\u1ee5ng Vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c b\u1ed5 nhi\u1ec7m th\u1ee7 l\u0129nh cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh Min Aung Hlaing l\u00e0m T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Myanmar c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y nhanh m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 chuy\u1ec3n d\u1ecbch n\u1ed9i kh\u1ed1i. Myanmar v\u1eeba ch\u00ednh\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10695,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9],"tags":[87,165,118,212,801,82,294,270],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-28344","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-asean","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-dao-chinh","tag-kinh-te","tag-mien-dien","tag-quan-su"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28344","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28344"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28460,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28344\/revisions\/28460"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}