{"id":28809,"date":"2026-06-07T01:27:16","date_gmt":"2026-06-07T01:27:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28809"},"modified":"2026-06-07T01:27:17","modified_gmt":"2026-06-07T01:27:17","slug":"ba-dinh-doi-gdp-10-la-phi-thuc-te","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28809","title":{"rendered":"Ba-\u0110\u00ecnh \u0111\u00f2i GDP 10% l\u00e0 phi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/strong>
Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Khung tr\u1eddi u \u00e1m \u0111ang bao ph\u1ee7 kh\u1eafp Ba \u0110\u00ecnh, do m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP tr\u00ean 10% v\u00f4 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi. C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ebfn 30%, do kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n c\u1ea3 trong l\u1eabn ngo\u00e0i. D\u00f9 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 chuy\u00ean quy\u1ec1n mu\u1ed1n \u201cv\u1ebd r\u1eafn th\u00eam ch\u00e2n\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cl\u00f2e\u201d<\/em> <\/em>d\u00e2n ch\u00fang nh\u1eb1m duy tr\u00ec quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c<\/em>,<\/em> <\/em>c\u0169ng<\/em> kh\u00f4ng hy v\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

R\u00e0 l\u1ea1i d\u1eef li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n th\u1ed1ng k\u00ea qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, g\u1ed3m: World Bank, IMF, OECD, Trading Economics . . . Trong 10 n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, t\u1eeb 2015 \u0111\u1ebfn 2025, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o tr\u00ean 100 tri\u1ec7u d\u00e2n c\u00f3 m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP 10%<\/strong>. Ngay c\u1ea3 \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nhanh nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u0169ng ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t kho\u1ea3ng 8,3%. Trung c\u1ed9ng, trong su\u1ed1t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean v\u1eeba qua, dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh 5-7%. Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria hay Brazil \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 7%.<\/p>\n\n\n

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T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 & t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 l\u00e3o h\u00f3a d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 h\u1ec7 l\u1ee5y t\u1ea1i VN<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Khi m\u1ed9t n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00f3 d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn th\u00ec t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf kh\u00f3 h\u01a1n, do c\u01a1 c\u1ea5u kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p h\u01a1n. T\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o ch\u1ee7 tr\u01b0\u01a1ng \u201cb\u00e1n c\u01a1 b\u1eafp\u201d, <\/strong>trong khi d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 \u0111ang gi\u00e0 \u0111i nhanh nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi(*)<\/sup><\/strong>.  \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 FDI kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u201cc\u00fa h\u00edch\u201d nhanh nh\u01b0 \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf.  Do v\u1eady, t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1ecb \u201cqu\u00e1n t\u00ednh\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf k\u00ecm l\u1ea1i. Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o nh\u00f3m c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean 100 tri\u1ec7u d\u00e2n n\u00ean kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u01b0 \u201cqu\u1ed1c gia nh\u1ecf m\u1edbi c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p h\u00f3a\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngo\u00e0i ra, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f2n l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ec9 huy, phe \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng quy\u1ec1n lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean \u201c\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea3o k\u00ea ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd\u201d, th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0a ra c\u00e1c quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u01b0 l\u1ee3i, t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1n b\u1ed9 \u201cnh\u00e1m nh\u00faa\u201d l\u00e0m suy ki\u1ec7t n\u1ec1n t\u00e0i ch\u00e1nh \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc. Khi th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf kinh t\u1ebf <\/strong>\u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c minh ch\u1ee9ng <\/strong>g\u00e2y ra hao h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng t\u01b0\u1edfng, th\u00ec phe n\u1eafm quy\u1ec1n ph\u1ee7i tay b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u201c\u0111\u1ed5 v\u1ea5y\u201d cho c\u00e1c \u201cy\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1ch quan\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cho \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 6, c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea7n l\u01b0\u1ee3t d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m 2026 g\u1ed3m: World Bank: 6,<\/strong>8<\/strong>%; IMF: 6,5% v\u00e0 ADB: <\/strong>7,2<\/strong>%. Ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0a ra con s\u1ed1 <\/strong>8<\/strong>%.<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u1eb1m trong nh\u00f3m b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng nh\u1ea5t \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 do ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng \u0111\u1ebfn 80% d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 t\u1eeb Kuwait. Khi eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz b\u1ecb phong t\u1ecfa th\u00ec d\u1ea7u th\u00f4, ph\u00e2n b\u00f3n v\u00e0 v\u1eadt li\u1ec7u li\u00ean quan khan hi\u1ebfm \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 nhu y\u1ebfu ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed3ng lo\u1ea1t t\u0103ng cao . . . \u0110\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed1i lo c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u Ch\u00ednh Ph\u1ee7 khi\u1ebfn m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam n\u0103m nay l\u00ean 2 ch\u1eef s\u1ed1 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 \u201cMission: Impossible\u201d<\/strong>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong phi\u00ean h\u1ecdp N\u1ed9i C\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 5, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng L\u00ea Minh H\u01b0ng th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn s\u1ee9c \u00e9p \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh kinh t\u1ebf v\u1ef9 m\u00f4 \u0111ang r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u1edf c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 nh\u1eadp si\u00eau<\/strong>. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng, \u0111ang di\u1ec5n bi\u1ebfn theo chi\u1ec1u h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i. [1]  <\/strong>Hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u00e0y cho th\u1ea5y, c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng v\u1ef9 m\u00f4 kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 d\u1ec5 d\u00e0ng do n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ebfn 74% v\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng, m\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c l\u00e0 Foreign direct investment (FDI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP qu\u00fd 1 n\u0103m 2026 c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t 7,83%<\/strong>, m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t trong 16 n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea1t ch\u1ec9 ti\u00eau 9,01%<\/strong> do ch\u00ednh csVN \u0111\u1ec1 ra. N\u1ebfu mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau GDP 10% cho c\u1ea3 n\u0103m th\u00ec m\u1ed7i qu\u00fd c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng 10,5% tr\u1edf l\u00ean<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp, \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng x\u1ea3y ra trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed kinh t\u1ebf Vi\u1ec7t Nam hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi (5) th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2026, Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u00f3 g\u1ea7n 130 ng\u00e0n doanh nghi\u1ec7p r\u00fat lui kh\u1ecfi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng. Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Qu\u1ea3n l\u00fd Thu mua (Purchasing Managers’ Index PMI), ph\u1ea3n \u1ea3nh s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t Vi\u1ec7t Nam th\u00e1ng 5 t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ed1c 52,8 \u0111i\u1ec3m, cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb th\u00e1ng 2, tuy nhi\u00ean theo chuy\u00ean gia t\u1eeb S&P Global, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 do n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c t\u00edch tr\u1eef h\u00e0ng do lo ng\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00ec xung \u0111\u1ed9t Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. \u00c1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2026 t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ebfn 5,46%, cao nh\u1ea5t trong 15 n\u0103m, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e1ng 5 \u0111\u00e3 nh\u00edch l\u00ean th\u00e0nh 5,60%. Khi l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t cao th\u00ec ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 kh\u00f3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng k\u00edch th\u00edch t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1ed3ng b\u1ea1c Vi\u1ec7t Nam c\u0169ng ch\u1ecbu \u00e1p l\u1ef1c m\u1ea1nh khi Vi\u1ec7t Nam nh\u1eadp si\u00eau h\u01a1n 8,9 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim<\/strong> ch\u1ec9 trong (5) th\u00e1ng \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m, trong \u0111\u00f3 70% l\u00e0 nh\u1eadp si\u00eau t\u1eeb Trung c\u1ed9ng<\/strong>. Nh\u1eadp si\u00eau l\u1edbn l\u00e0m hao h\u1ee5t d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef ngo\u1ea1i h\u1ed1i, khi\u1ebfn kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng can thi\u1ec7p th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 c\u1ee7a Ng\u00e2n H\u00e0ng Nh\u00e0 N\u01b0\u1edbc (NHNN) b\u1ecb thu h\u1eb9p. M\u1ed9t khi \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 y\u1ebfu \u0111i s\u1ebd l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng, \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t l\u00ean cao h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 C\u01a1 Quan Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i M\u1ef9, United States Trade Representative (USTR) \u0111\u00e3 kh\u1edfi s\u1ef1 \u0111i\u1ec1u tra Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1eeb ng\u00e0y 29 th\u00e1ng 5, theo \u0111i\u1ec1u 301 c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1o Lu\u1eadt Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i 1974 do c\u00e1o bu\u1ed9c Vi\u1ec7t Nam vi ph\u1ea1m quy\u1ec1n s\u1edf h\u1eefu tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 b\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111i c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn \u00e1p thu\u1ebf tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9 t\u1eebng l\u00e0m v\u1edbi Trung c\u1ed9ng n\u0103m 2018. Vi\u1ec7c n\u00e0y n\u1ebfu x\u1ea9y ra, th\u00ec Vi\u1ec7t Nam g\u1eb7p \u201ckh\u1ed1n kh\u00f3\u201d l\u1edbn do M\u1ef9 \u0111ang l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng ki\u1ebfm \u0103n l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qua nhi\u1ec1u n\u0103m, Vi\u1ec7t Nam khai th\u00e1c tri\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ec3 quan ni\u1ec7m \u201cc\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ph\u00fac ta\u201d, \u201cnh\u00e1y\u201d nhau \u201cwindows crack – b\u1ebb kh\u00f3a\u201d ph\u1ea7n m\u1ec1m tr\u00e1i ph\u00e9p g\u00e2y thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i cho ng\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p M\u1ef9, ch\u1ec9 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2018 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn 492 tri\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 kim. USTR cho hay, b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n n\u00f3i \u0111ang ra s\u1ee9c tr\u1ea5n \u00e1p, h\u00e0ng gi\u1ea3 v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng nh\u00e1i v\u1eabn ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Vi\u1ec7t Nam, t\u1eeb h\u00e0ng ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7. [2] <\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n

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\u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng lo ng\u1ea1i khi th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111ang \u1edf m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c. Theo U.S. Census Bureau, n\u0103m 2025, M\u1ef9 th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u1edbi Vi\u1ec7t Nam t\u1edbi 178, 2 t\u1ef7 M\u1ef9 kim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 nhi\u1ec1u l\u1ea7n y\u00eau c\u1ea7u Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u201cc\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng l\u1ea1i quan h\u1ec7 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i\u201d, nguy c\u01a1 \u00e1p thu\u1ebf ho\u1eb7c h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1eadt. N\u1ebfu \u0111i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y x\u1ea3y ra, ng\u00e0nh<\/strong> xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng sang M\u1ef9 – \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn GDP c\u1ee7a Vi\u1ec7t Nam – s\u1ebd b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp kh\u00e1 l\u1edbn.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh l\u00e0m gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n ngu\u1ed3n cung, \u0111\u1ea9y chi ph\u00ed c\u00e1c chuy\u1ebfn bay cao h\u01a1n; gi\u1ea3m s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf, khi\u1ebfn ng\u00e0nh du l\u1ecbch Vi\u1ec7t Nam s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m tr\u00ean 30% t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m nh\u1ea1y c\u1ea3m, g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng d\u00e2y chuy\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh: h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng; v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n; d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 v\u00e0 ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ecba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, l\u00e0m suy gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 0,35% c\u1ee7a GDP to\u00e0n n\u0103m.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

B\u00e1o c\u00e1o t\u00e0i ch\u00e1nh ki\u1ec3m to\u00e1n n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a b\u1ed1n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t (Agribank, Vietcombank, Vietinbank, BIDV) cho th\u1ea5y t\u1ed5ng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n (B\u0110S) \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u00f9ng l\u00e0m t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean t\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 11 tri\u1ec7u t\u1ef7 \u0111\u1ed3ng<\/strong>, t\u0103ng 13% ch\u1ec9 trong m\u1ed9t n\u0103m. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh hai v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1:<\/p>\n\n\n\n