{"id":28821,"date":"2026-06-21T01:35:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-21T01:35:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28821"},"modified":"2026-06-21T01:36:01","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T01:36:01","slug":"the-gioi-thuc-su-chi-con-lai-bon-cuong-quoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28821","title":{"rendered":"Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i b\u1ed1n c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c?<\/strong>
Brendan Simms<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ngu\u1ed3n: <\/strong> Brendan Simms, \u201cThere Are Only Four Great Powers\u201d, Foreign Policy<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>, 02\/06\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c m\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay, vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n r\u00f5 ai l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng quan tr\u1ecdng<\/strong>. Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, b\u00e0n lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c bao gi\u1edd c\u0169ng d\u1ec5 h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0a ra m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c v\u1ec1 ch\u00fang. S\u1ef1 b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u2014 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o x\u1ee9ng \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u00f4i v\u1ecb \u201cb\u00e1 ch\u1ee7\u201d \u2014 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c tr\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf ng\u00e0y nay, t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng g\u00ec t\u1eebng di\u1ec5n ra trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, ch\u00fang ta v\u1eeba thi\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ecbnh ngh\u0129a chung v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh n\u00ean m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c, v\u1eeba kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n \u2014 ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang c\u00f3 bao nhi\u00eau th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c lu\u00e2n phi\u00ean \u0111i\u1ec1u ph\u1ed1i cu\u1ed9c ch\u01a1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1eabu v\u1eady, ch\u00fang ta v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ph\u00e2n \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c \u0111\u1eb7c t\u00ednh chung. Nh\u1eefng th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o n\u00e0y ch\u1ec9 ra r\u1eb1ng hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 \u0111\u00fang b\u1ed1n c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi <\/strong>\u2014 v\u00e0 danh t\u00ednh c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ch\u01b0a ch\u1eafc \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00f9ng kh\u1edbp v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng g\u00ec b\u1ea1n h\u1eb1ng ngh\u0129.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Tr\u01b0\u1edbc h\u1ebft, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 khu\u00f4n m\u1eabu h\u00e0nh vi t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed3ng. H\u1ecd lu\u00f4n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n s\u1ebd l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh, ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c tham v\u1ea5n v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1eddi. H\u1ecd bi\u1ebft c\u00e1ch khi\u1ebfn ng\u01b0\u1eddi kh\u00e1c ph\u1ea3i d\u00e8 ch\u1eebng tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 v\u1eafng m\u1eb7t c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd s\u1ebd ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c ch\u1edd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y.<\/mark><\/strong> Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh m\u00ecnh, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i ch\u1ec9 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn m\u1ed9t th\u1ee9 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u00f3 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 mang t\u00ednh \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n<\/mark> \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng<\/strong>. Trong nh\u1eefng t\u00ecnh hu\u1ed1ng c\u1ef1c \u0111oan, h\u1ecd t\u1ef1 cho m\u00ecnh quy\u1ec1n l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 c\u00e1c ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111e d\u1ecda ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0m h\u1ecd ph\u1eadt l\u00f2ng, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i th\u1eb3ng th\u1eebng b\u00e1c b\u1ecf b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 quy\u1ec1n can thi\u1ec7p t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 n\u00e0o nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 nh\u1eefng th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1eb7t m\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ee9ng tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 l\u00fac, h\u1ecd l\u1ea1i bi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 lu\u1eadt ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00f3 th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ngh\u0129a v\u1ee5 \u0111\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ee9c cao \u0111\u1eb9p, ho\u1eb7c l\u1edbn ti\u1ebfng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 b\u00ean \u0111\u1ee9ng ra g\u00ecn gi\u1eef c\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n m\u1ef1c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/strong> N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 v\u1eeba l\u1eadp ra lu\u1eadt v\u1eeba ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 ch\u00fang; h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd cam ch\u1ecbu ph\u1eadn s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay. <\/mark>H\u1ecd l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1, ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i b\u00ean b\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u cho ph\u00e9p c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u00e0nh x\u1eed theo c\u00e1ch n\u00e0y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c v\u01b0\u1ee3t tr\u1ed9i c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia t\u1ea7m trung v\u00e0 nh\u1ecf h\u01a1n. <\/mark>N\u0103ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean.<\/mark><\/strong> Li\u1ec7u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 s\u1edf h\u1eefu s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p \u0111\u1eb7t \u00fd ch\u00ed c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh l\u00ean k\u1ebb kh\u00e1c, hay \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00e1ng c\u1ef1 l\u1ea1i \u00fd ch\u00ed c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng hay kh\u00f4ng? D\u00f9 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ee9c ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, m\u1ee9c chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3n chi \u0111\u00f3 v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng tri\u1ec3n khai<\/mark> <\/mark>c\u0169ng l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u00e0nh ph\u1ea7n kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 thi\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o ch\u1ee9ng cho v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y nay.<\/mark><\/strong> Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t qu\u1ea3 bom nguy\u00ean t\u1eed v\u00e0 t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 r\u0103n \u0111e m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n mang l\u1ea1i cho m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia m\u1ed9t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do v\u00ec sao c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn g\u00e1nh v\u00e1c nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n chi ph\u00ed kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 cho vi\u1ec7c ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u, b\u1ea3o d\u01b0\u1ee1ng, l\u01b0u tr\u1eef, hu\u1ea5n luy\u1ec7n v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c kho v\u0169 kh\u00ed n\u00e0y. Kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n n\u00e0o c\u0169ng l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c, nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u00ec b\u1eaft bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn l\u00e0 y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf. <\/mark>Li\u1ec7u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh trong cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi duy tr\u00ec m\u1ed9t n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 d\u00e0i h\u01a1i hay kh\u00f4ng? <\/strong>Th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng, s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111o b\u1eb1ng GDP danh ngh\u0129a, bao g\u1ed3m m\u1ecdi s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea1o ra trong ph\u1ea1m vi bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi qu\u1ed1c gia. M\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o kh\u00e1c l\u00e0 GDP theo s\u1ee9c mua t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng (PPP), c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1ed3ng n\u1ed9i t\u1ec7 trong n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf trong n\u01b0\u1edbc \u2014 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng mang l\u1ea1i l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia ngo\u00e0i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y nh\u1edd m\u1ee9c s\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng quan tr\u1ecdng nh\u01b0ng r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean n\u00e0y. <\/mark><\/strong>GDP trong th\u1eddi b\u00ecnh, GDP trong tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i xung \u0111\u1ed9t, v\u00e0 GDP trong th\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn l\u00e0 ba kh\u00e1i ni\u1ec7m ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t. N\u1ebfu c\u00f4 l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, ngu\u1ed3n t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u th\u00f4 v\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung l\u01b0\u01a1ng th\u1ef1c b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p \u00e1p thu\u1ebf, tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t ho\u1eb7c phong t\u1ecfa, n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c l\u1ed9 ra m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 m\u1eb7t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u00e1c.<\/strong> \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 l\u00fd do t\u1ea1i sao kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng kh\u00f4ng gian chung to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i quy\u1ec1n t\u00e0i ph\u00e1n c\u1ee7a b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00e0ng h\u1ea3i qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf <\/strong>\u2014 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh trong vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c, ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 th\u1ee9 b\u1eadc gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi nhau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh kinh t\u1ebf do \u0111\u00f3 r\u1ea5t quan tr\u1ecdng, nh\u01b0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c.<\/mark><\/strong> X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c chi ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 trong su\u1ed1t 20 n\u0103m qua, nh\u1eefng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi g\u1ecdi t\u00ean M\u1ef9 \u2014 qu\u1ed1c gia b\u1ecf xa nh\u00f3m c\u00f2n l\u1ea1i \u1edf v\u1ecb tr\u00ed d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea7u \u2014 theo sau l\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c, v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ed9t kho\u1ea3ng kh\u00e1 xa l\u00e0 Anh v\u00e0 Nga. Ba c\u00e1i t\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean c\u0169ng n\u1eb1m trong s\u1ed1 n\u0103m ho\u1eb7c s\u00e1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t h\u00e0nh tinh. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Nga, d\u00f9 c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1m l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n, v\u1eabn gi\u00e0nh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t t\u1ea5m v\u00e9 v\u00e0o c\u00e2u l\u1ea1c b\u1ed9 n\u00e0y nh\u1edd kho v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 \u2014 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed th\u1ee9 hai c\u1ee7a v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng. <\/mark><\/strong>Li\u1ec7u qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hay ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c khu v\u1ef1c, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 \u00fd ch\u00ed c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u1ec3 tri\u1ec3n khai l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i xa x\u00f4i ngo\u00e0i l\u00e3nh th\u1ed5 hay kh\u00f4ng? H\u1ecd c\u00f3 s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn kh\u00f4ng? Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1a v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u hay kh\u00f4ng? H\u1ecd c\u00f3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c n\u00fat th\u1eaft giao th\u00f4ng v\u00e0 c\u00e1c eo bi\u1ec3n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c y\u1ebfu huy\u1ec7t? C\u00e1c c\u01a1 quan t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cung c\u1ea5p th\u00f4ng tin ch\u1ea5t l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cao \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c khu v\u1ef1c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 tr\u00ean kh\u00f4ng gian m\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng gian v\u0169 tr\u1ee5 kh\u00f4ng? H\u1ecd c\u00f3 s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y ngo\u1ea1i giao quy m\u00f4 v\u00e0 tinh nhu\u1ec7? H\u1ecd c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i l\u1edbn hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/mark><\/p>\n\n\n

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T\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i d\u01b0\u1edbi d\u1ea1ng \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd l\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng gian \u1ea3o. M\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00e1c c\u1ea3m nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi khu v\u1ef1c, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1edf h\u1eefu kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng chi ph\u1ed1i \u2014 ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed thao t\u00fang \u2014 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c, c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hay c\u00e1c di\u1ec5n \u0111\u00e0n \u0111a ph\u01b0\u01a1ng kh\u00e1c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u00e0y nay, t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111ang \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u00e2n b\u1ed5 r\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c. M\u1ef9 n\u1ed5i b\u1eadt ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n nh\u1edd m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 ch\u1eb1ng ch\u1ecbt kh\u1eafp to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u.<\/mark> N\u01b0\u1edbc Anh d\u00f9 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n n\u1eafm gi\u1eef v\u1ecb th\u1ebf b\u00e1 ch\u1ee7 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u01b0 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, nh\u01b0ng v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n quan tr\u1ecdng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, bao g\u1ed3m Gibraltar, Cyprus v\u00e0 Qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Falkland; h\u1ecd c\u0169ng hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n \u1edf nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ecba \u0111i\u1ec3m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u01b0 Duqm thu\u1ed9c Oman tr\u00ean \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/strong> Nga tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef m\u1ed9t v\u00f9ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng g\u1ea7n, d\u00f9 g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh m\u1ea5t v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, Moscow v\u1eabn t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u trong c\u00e1c l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c tuy\u00ean truy\u1ec1n, \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng d\u01b0 lu\u1eadn v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng can thi\u1ec7p k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1 mang t\u00ednh ph\u00e1 ho\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u l\u1edbn trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u0103n c\u1ee9 \u1edf Djibouti v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u00e1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn \u0111ang b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd tr\u00ean kh\u1eafp th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/strong> Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh hi\u1ec7n nay l\u1ea1i n\u1eb1m \u1edf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u00e1c chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n t\u1edbi h\u1ea1n (nh\u01b0 lithium)<\/mark><\/strong> \u2014 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i \u0111\u1ec3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y cu\u1ed9c c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 c\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng xanh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed th\u1ee9 ba l\u00e0 uy t\u00edn<\/mark><\/strong>. Qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed3ng c\u1ea5p \u2014 c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00f4ng, v\u00e0 quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m l\u00e0 b\u1ea3n th\u00e2n qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u1ef1 xem m\u00ecnh l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c hay kh\u00f4ng? \u00cdt ai ho\u00e0i nghi v\u1ec1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c hi\u1ec7n nay, v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u0169ng c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn Nga l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c l\u1edbn nh\u1edd n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ee7 s\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh ho\u1eb7c \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 g\u00e2y r\u1ed1i lo\u1ea1n tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. D\u00f9 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Anh v\u1eabn c\u00f2n g\u00e2y tranh c\u00e3i, h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u1eabn coi n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u1edbn.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, Ph\u1ea7n Lan v\u00e0 Th\u1ee5y \u0110i\u1ec3n t\u1eebng ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t cam k\u1ebft b\u1ea3o an song ph\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1eeb ph\u00eda Anh v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2022 tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u kho\u1ea3n ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a NATO ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c c\u00f3 hi\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c; L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Vi\u1ec5n chinh Chung do Anh d\u1eabn d\u1eaft c\u0169ng \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p l\u1edbn v\u00e0o an ninh c\u1ee7a v\u00f9ng Baltic v\u00e0 v\u00f9ng B\u1eafc C\u1ef1c. Anh c\u0169ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1 nh\u01b0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 \u1edf v\u00f9ng Levant v\u00e0 V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh, tr\u00e2n tr\u1ecdng v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed3ng minh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c. B\u00ean c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, n\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 r\u00fat lui kh\u1ecfi ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00c1, nh\u1eefng n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c d\u00f9 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf h\u01a1n c\u1ee7a Anh s\u1ebd l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c gia t\u0103ng t\u1ea7m quan tr\u1ecdng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 lu\u00f4n \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean tr\u00ean s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 thu\u1ea7n t\u00fay.<\/mark><\/strong> S\u1ef1 v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00f2n n\u1eb1m \u1edf kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh v\u0103n h\u00f3a v\u00e0 t\u01b0 t\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/mark><\/strong> Ng\u00e0y nay, Anh c\u00f9ng c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y kh\u00e1c \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf t\u1ef1 do d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u00e0 th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 do. Lu\u00e2n \u0110\u00f4n \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 h\u00ecnh \u1ea3nh \u0111\u00f3, ch\u1ee9ng minh r\u1eb1ng m\u00ecnh kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 \u201ck\u1ebb ph\u1ee5c t\u00f9ng\u201d M\u1ef9 b\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u1eeb ch\u1ed1i tham gia v\u00e0o chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran c\u1ee7a T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 Donald Trump. Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c l\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb b\u1ea3n s\u1eafc c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 v\u0103n minh s\u00e2u s\u1eafc h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Trung Qu\u1ed1c T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh t\u1eebng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng v\u1edbi t\u01b0 c\u00e1ch l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cn\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn\u201d, Trung Qu\u1ed1c n\u00ean th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n ngo\u1ea1i giao \u201ckh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t\u201d, mang \u0111\u1eadm \u201cd\u1ea5u \u1ea5n Trung Hoa v\u00e0 t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn Trung Hoa\u201d. Ngay c\u1ea3 Nga \u2014 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 l\u1ed1i h\u00e0nh x\u1eed gai g\u00f3c nh\u1ea5t v\u00e0 lu\u00f4n li\u00ean t\u1ee5c nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh \u2014 c\u0169ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 \u0111ang \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb Kit\u00f4 gi\u00e1o v\u00e0 gia \u0111\u00ecnh tr\u00ean ph\u1ea1m vi to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u201cv\u00f4 h\u1ed3n\u201d. C\u00f2n vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 \u2014 t\u1eebng l\u00e0 tr\u1ee5 c\u1ed9t c\u1ee7a tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7 \u2014 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1i di\u1ec7n cho \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec sau s\u1ef1 tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 hai c\u1ee7a \u00f4ng Trump, hi\u1ec7n v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi b\u1ecf ng\u1ecf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Uy t\u00edn c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u0169ng ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n v\u00e0o v\u1ecb tr\u00ed c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd trong c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac qu\u1ea3n tr\u1ecb to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea1o \u2014 hay c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd n\u00f3i l\u00e0 th\u1ed1ng tr\u1ecb \u2014 trong c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kinh t\u1ebf nh\u01b0 Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/mark><\/strong> N\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u0169ng l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o an Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c, s\u00e1t c\u00e1nh c\u00f9ng Nga, Trung Qu\u1ed1c, Anh v\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p. Nh\u1edd \u0111\u00f3, c\u1ea3 n\u0103m c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n to l\u1edbn trong h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u2014 v\u00e0 d\u00f9 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1eb7c quy\u1ec1n n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean b\u1ecb th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea3i t\u1ed5 s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1i Li\u00ean H\u1ee3p Qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh xa v\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Ti\u00eau ch\u00ed th\u1ee9 t\u01b0 cho v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu<\/mark><\/strong> \u2014 li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00e0 m\u1ed9t x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5. Nh\u1eefng b\u00e0i h\u1ecdc th\u00e0nh b\u1ea1i trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t vai tr\u00f2 quan tr\u1ecdng \u1edf kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh n\u00e0y. Trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 phe c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y ra nhi\u1ec1u t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t cho \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng, m\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4i khi thu\u1ed9c v\u1ec1 b\u00ean c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng gian kh\u1ed5 ki\u00ean c\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1ea5t. C\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c Habsburg, \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh m\u1ed9t s\u1ee9c b\u1ec1n \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c tr\u01b0\u1edbc ngh\u1ecbch c\u1ea3nh. Kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng g\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1eady sau th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u0169ng quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m g\u00ec vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng. M\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean s\u00e2u r\u1ed9ng, c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0 uy t\u00edn \u1ea5n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng, nh\u01b0ng s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea1m t\u1edbi t\u1ea7m v\u00f3c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u1ebfu thi\u1ebfu \u0111i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu t\u1ed1t nh\u1ea5t theo d\u00f2ng l\u1ecbch s\u1eed ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 Anh v\u00e0 M\u1ef9.<\/mark><\/strong> H\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee9ng d\u1eady sau nh\u1eefng th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1, nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc Anh m\u1ea5t \u0111i c\u00e1c thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ecba M\u1ef9 hay vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 sa l\u1ea7y trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i Vi\u1ec7t Nam. D\u00f9 c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng n\u1ed9i b\u1ed9 theo nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c nhau, h\u1ecd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i nhanh ch\u00f3ng. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Nga v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i non tr\u1ebb, v\u00e0 c\u1ea3 hai \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f2n l\u01b0u gi\u1eef nh\u1eefng k\u00fd \u1ee9c v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb v\u00e0 s\u1ef1 r\u1ea1n n\u1ee9t th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf. <\/mark><\/strong>Gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu b\u1eaft r\u1ec5 t\u1eeb l\u1ecbch s\u1eed v\u00e0 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1eeb qu\u00e1 tr\u00ecnh b\u1ed3i \u0111\u1eafp s\u1ef1 g\u1eafn k\u1ebft x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i theo th\u1eddi gian.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed n\u00e0y, nhi\u1ec1u \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean cho v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd b\u1ecb lo\u1ea1i kh\u1ecfi danh s\u00e1ch. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 t\u1ea7m v\u00f3c kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 nh\u01b0 \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n l\u1ea1i thi\u1ebfu n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n \u2014 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e9t v\u1ec1 t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng, \u0110\u1ee9c, Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, Brazil v\u00e0 Indonesia ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu ch\u1ec9 s\u1edf h\u1eefu n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u1edf c\u1ea5p khu v\u1ef1c<\/mark>; m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i n\u01b0\u1edbc trong s\u1ed1 h\u1ecd c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 nh\u1edd b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y ngo\u1ea1i giao v\u00e0 c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch vi\u1ec7n tr\u1ee3 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i.<\/strong> \u0110\u1ee9c v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n s\u1edf h\u1eefu s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh m\u1ec1m to l\u1edbn, nh\u01b0ng Brazil v\u00e0 Indonesia th\u00ec kh\u00f4ng. C\u1ea3 b\u1ed1n qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u t\u1eebng b\u1ed9c l\u1ed9 s\u1ef1 mong manh, d\u1ec5 v\u1ee1 trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, v\u00e0 do \u0111\u00f3 thi\u1ebfu \u0111i kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f9 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 c\u0169ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u00e1p \u1ee9ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c ti\u00eau ch\u00ed tr\u00ean. New Delhi s\u1edf h\u1eefu v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 n\u0103m ho\u1eb7c th\u1ee9 s\u00e1u th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, nh\u01b0ng t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn v\u1eabn mang t\u00ednh khu v\u1ef1c.<\/mark><\/strong> \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 nh\u1eadn v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t \u201cng\u01b0\u1eddi th\u1ea7y c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i di\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3i vai tr\u00f2 n\u00e0y theo c\u00e1c l\u0103ng k\u00ednh phi c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c. Do qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y c\u00f2n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i non tr\u1ebb d\u01b0\u1edbi h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ea1i, r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u01b0\u1ee3ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu c\u1ee7a \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 \u2014 song vi\u1ec7c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y d\u1ec5 b\u1ecb t\u1ed5n th\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c v\u1ee5 b\u1ea1o l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1o ph\u00e1i, kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ed1 h\u1eefu.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Ph\u00e1p l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p r\u1ea5t kh\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1nh gi\u00e1. \u0110\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf l\u1edbn v\u00e0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef m\u1ed9t kho v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u1ea1t nh\u00e2n c\u00f3 t\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp cao h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi Anh, nh\u01b0ng Paris \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh m\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u ph\u1ea7n quan tr\u1ecdng trong ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0o tay Li\u00ean minh Ch\u00e2u \u00c2u \u2014 ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0 quy\u1ec1n ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7.<\/strong> Paris v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nhi\u1ec1u \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 hi\u1ec7n di\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u1edf khu v\u1ef1c \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, nh\u01b0ng \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i r\u00fat lui \u1edf ch\u00e2u Phi v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi c\u00e1c th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c phong tr\u00e0o b\u00e0i th\u1ef1c d\u00e2n \u1edf \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng. Ph\u00e1p c\u0169ng s\u1edf h\u1eefu m\u1ed9t th\u01b0\u01a1ng hi\u1ec7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n so v\u1edbi kh\u1ed1i Anglo-Saxon, Trung Qu\u1ed1c hay Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy nhi\u00ean, x\u00e9t v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu, n\u01b0\u1edbc Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp tr\u1ea3i qua c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 qu\u1ed1c gia trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19 v\u00e0 20 \u2014 \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi b\u1ecb \u0110\u1ee9c x\u00e2m chi\u1ebfm v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1940 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i nh\u1edd \u0111\u1ebfn li\u00ean qu\u00e2n Anh \u2013 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp tr\u1ea1ng th\u00e1i qu\u1ed1c gia sau chi\u1ebfn tranh. Ph\u00e1p mong manh h\u01a1n Anh r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 s\u1edf h\u1eefu c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 t\u00e0i nguy\u00ean, t\u1ea7m \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng, uy t\u00edn v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ch\u1ed1ng ch\u1ecbu \u2014 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c n\u00e0y \u2014 \u1edf m\u1ed7i c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c l\u00e0 r\u1ea5t kh\u00e1c nhau. Kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kh\u00e1c, v\u00e0 h\u1ecd kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh l\u1eabn nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i. L\u1ecbch s\u1eed t\u1eeb x\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn nay v\u1ed1n lu\u00f4n nh\u01b0 v\u1eady.<\/strong> Trong qu\u00e1 kh\u1ee9, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0o m\u1ea1nh ngang b\u1eb1ng nhau, v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f2n y\u1ebfu h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 \u2014 v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 V\u01b0\u01a1ng qu\u1ed1c Ph\u1ed5 v\u00e0o th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 18 hay \u0110\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c \u00c1o \u2013 Hung cu\u1ed1i th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 19.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c ng\u00e0y nay kh\u00e1c bi\u1ec7t nhau r\u1ea5t l\u1edbn c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea1nh ri\u00eang l\u1ebb l\u1eabn s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p. D\u00f9 M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang b\u1ecf xa Nga v\u00e0 Anh v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 kinh t\u1ebf l\u1eabn qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, c\u1ea3 b\u1ed1n qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec1u s\u1edf h\u1eefu nh\u1eefng thu\u1ed9c t\u00ednh gi\u00fap h\u1ecd t\u00e1ch bi\u1ec7t ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n so v\u1edbi n\u1ea5c thang ti\u1ebfp theo c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn tr\u00ean b\u00e0n c\u1edd th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/mark><\/strong> Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 duy nh\u1ea5t m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u2014 \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 Ph\u00e1p \u2014 c\u00f3 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c v\u1eabn c\u00f2n ch\u01b0a r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Danh s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y \u2014 bao g\u1ed3m nh\u1eefng c\u00e1i t\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ecdn v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng c\u00e1i t\u00ean b\u1ecb b\u1ecf l\u1ea1i \u2014 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 s\u1ebd khi\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd. Tuy nhi\u00ean, n\u1ebfu nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn d\u01b0\u1edbi g\u00f3c \u0111\u1ed9 l\u1ecbch s\u1eed, t\u00ednh nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n c\u1ee7a n\u00f3 l\u00e0 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c ch\u1ee7 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, c\u1ea5u tr\u00fac c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 quen thu\u1ed9c v\u1edbi th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 cha \u00f4ng ch\u00fang ta, m\u00e0 th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 t\u1ed5 ti\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3. V\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng, c\u1ee5c di\u1ec7n n\u00e0y v\u1eabn s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c nh\u01b0 v\u1eady \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi th\u1ebf h\u1ec7 con ch\u00e1u c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta sau n\u00e0y.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brendan Simms <\/strong>
Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung t\u00e2m \u0110\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Cambridge v\u00e0 l\u00e0 t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed1n<\/em> The Return of the Great Powers.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/06\/05\/the-gioi-thuc-su-chi-con-lai-bon-cuong-quoc\/#more-67265<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

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<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n:  Brendan Simms, \u201cThere Are Only Four Great Powers\u201d, Foreign Policy, 02\/06\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Vi\u00ean \u0110\u0103ng Huy Trong k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean c\u1ea1nh tranh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c m\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n nay, vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn di\u1ec7n r\u00f5 ai l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng quan tr\u1ecdng. Th\u1ebf nh\u01b0ng, b\u00e0n lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c bao gi\u1edd c\u0169ng\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,8,12,9],"tags":[273,165,118,212,119,82,284,807,98],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-28821","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-anh-quoc","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-hoa-ky","tag-kinh-te","tag-nga","tag-sieu-cuong-the-gioi","tag-trung-cong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28821","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28821"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28821\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28916,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28821\/revisions\/28916"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/28824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28821"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28821"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28821"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}