{"id":28871,"date":"2026-06-13T22:23:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T22:23:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28871"},"modified":"2026-06-13T22:23:55","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T22:23:55","slug":"rui-ro-tu-su-bung-no-tai-vu-trang-toan-cau","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=28871","title":{"rendered":"R\u1ee7i ro t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u<\/strong>
Rebecca Patterson<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"
______________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n: Rebecca Patterson, \u201cBeware the Costs of the Global Rearmament Boom\u201d, Council on Foreign Relations<\/em><\/mark><\/strong>, 02\/06\/2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: <\/strong>Ph\u1ea1m \u00c1nh Minh<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n t\u0103ng chi qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u1ed1n \u0111ang x\u1ea5u \u0111i v\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng nguy c\u01a1 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1eeb th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ng\u00e0y nay mu\u1ed1n v\u1eeba t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u1eeba duy tr\u00ec c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh d\u00e2n sinh, trong khi th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh d\u1ea7n ph\u00e1t \u0111i t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u r\u1eb1ng h\u1ecd kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 c\u00f3 c\u1ea3 hai.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong 11 n\u0103m li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp, chi ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng, theo s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u t\u1eeb Vi\u1ec7n Nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u H\u00f2a b\u00ecnh Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf Stockholm (SIPRI). Trong n\u0103m 2025, t\u1ed5ng chi ti\u00eau to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t m\u1ee9c 2,5% GDP to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u2014 cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o kh\u00f4ng m\u1eb7n m\u00e0 v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 c\u00e1c ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh th\u00e2n thi\u1ec7n v\u1edbi c\u1eed tri nh\u1eb1m d\u00e0nh th\u00eam ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch cho mua s\u1eafm v\u0169 kh\u00ed. N\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ea1m m\u1ed1c g\u1ea7n 100% GDP, theo Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf (IMF), nh\u01b0ng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia v\u1eabn mu\u1ed1n v\u1eeba c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed l\u1eabn \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ph\u00fac l\u1ee3i.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Oanh t\u1ea1c c\u01a1 B1 bay v\u1edbi F15<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t trong v\u00e0i n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, n\u1ed7i lo tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c2u v\u00e0 Trung \u0110\u00f4ng, c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb t\u0103ng cao tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng nghi k\u1ef5 l\u1eabn nhau gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1ef1 t\u1eadp trung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc sang v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o ch\u00e2u \u00c2u t\u0103ng 14% chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng trong n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024, trong khi \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1, c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi n\u00e0y c\u0169ng t\u0103ng 8,1%.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nguy c\u01a1 c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang \u2014 m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n ho\u1eb7c nh\u1eefng thay \u0111\u1ed5i ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch nh\u1eb1m t\u0103ng doanh thu hay c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m chi ti\u00eau \u1edf nh\u1eefng l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c kh\u00e1c<\/mark> \u2014 l\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y chi ph\u00ed vay v\u1ed1n t\u0103ng l\u00ean, ho\u1eb7c th\u1eadm ch\u00ed g\u00e2y ra kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng<\/strong>. C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch c\u1ea7n hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 nh\u1eefng r\u1ee7i ro ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 v\u00e0 \u0111ang nh\u1eadn th\u1ea5y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eadm l\u1ea1i trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai g\u1ea7n<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

V\u1edbi s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u1edf m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb sau Th\u1ebf chi\u1ebfn II, theo danh s\u00e1ch c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t c\u1ea7n theo d\u00f5i n\u0103m 2026 c\u1ee7a CFR, chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng nhi\u1ec1u kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng. T\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb Th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh NATO 2025, c\u1ea3 32 n\u01b0\u1edbc th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean \u2014 tr\u1eeb T\u00e2y Ban Nha v\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c mi\u1ec5n tr\u1eeb \u2014 \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng h\u00e0ng n\u0103m l\u00ean m\u1ee9c 5% GDP v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2035, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n do s\u1ee9c \u00e9p t\u1eeb ph\u00eda ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9. <\/strong>Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n Takaichi Sanae cam k\u1ebft s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c b\u01b0\u1edbc chuy\u1ec3n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n sang h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau 2% GDP chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2025, s\u1edbm 2 n\u0103m so v\u1edbi k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch. Vi\u1ec7c s\u1eeda \u0111\u1ed5i ba v\u0103n ki\u1ec7n chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn s\u1ebd ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay \u2014 ch\u00ednh c\u00e1c v\u0103n ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh c\u00e1c k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi chi ti\u00eau l\u1edbn h\u01a1n theo ki\u1ec3u NATO l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n kh\u1ea3 thi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd nh\u1ea5t c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng 1,5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la cho n\u0103m t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh 2027 \u2014 \u0111\u00e1nh d\u1ea5u m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 40% so v\u1edbi c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y v\u00e0 l\u00e0 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9, ngay c\u1ea3 khi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh theo l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t.<\/mark><\/strong> Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed n\u1ebfu m\u1ee9c ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch n\u00e0y b\u1ecb c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m, xu h\u01b0\u1edbng hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i v\u1eabn l\u00e0 h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u1edbi chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Donald Trump ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n cho qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m s\u1ef1 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o M\u1ef9. Ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u t\u1ea1i \u0110\u1ed1i tho\u1ea1i Shangri-La t\u1ea1i Singapore v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 30 th\u00e1ng 5, B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng Qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng Pete Hegseth cho r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u1ec1 ngh\u1ecb c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u00e0m \u0111i\u1ec1u m\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c n\u00f3ng l\u00f2ng th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0: \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nghi\u00eam t\u00fac trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n v\u00e0o an ninh chung.\u201d<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch l\u1edbn h\u01a1n<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i c\u00f3 c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 g\u1ea7n v\u1ec1 m\u1eb7t \u0111\u1ecba l\u00fd, c\u1eed tri nh\u00ecn chung \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. <\/strong>Tuy nhi\u00ean, s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 \u0111\u00f3 th\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n khi ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng t\u1eeb b\u1ecf \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i l\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c mua th\u00eam v\u0169 kh\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 6 n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a YouGov cho th\u1ea5y 49% ng\u01b0\u1eddi Anh \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng, nh\u01b0ng 57% ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng thu\u1ebf \u0111\u1ec3 chi tr\u1ea3 cho l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y v\u00e0 53% ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n chi kh\u00e1c c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ed3n ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch cho qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ea3o s\u00e1t v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 3 n\u0103m 2025 c\u1ee7a Ipsos cho th\u1ea5y 2\/3 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh Ph\u00e1p \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda s\u1ed1 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfi c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i vi\u1ec7c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, 66% \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a s\u1ef1 thi\u00ean l\u1ec7ch n\u00e0y b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt sau \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch, khi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh th\u00eam lo l\u1eafng v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t. Nhi\u1ec1u c\u1eed tri c\u00f3 l\u1ebd k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 s\u1ebd h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 l\u1ea5p \u0111\u1ea7y kho\u1ea3ng tr\u1ed1ng v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed \u0111\u00f3 \u2014 tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf Ph\u00e1p, b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb gia n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p th\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u00e1ng ch\u00fa \u00fd t\u1eeb nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u00e1ng 4 n\u0103m 2026 c\u1ee7a IMF l\u00e0 2\/3 gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 b\u1eb1ng th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, v\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ee3t b\u00f9ng n\u1ed5 chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec1u k\u00e9o theo s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng trong th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kho\u1ea3ng 2,6 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m trong v\u00f2ng 3 n\u0103m k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb khi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u. T\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 n\u1ee3 c\u00f4ng so v\u1edbi GDP \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng kho\u1ea3ng 7 \u0111i\u1ec3m ph\u1ea7n tr\u0103m trong c\u00f9ng k\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"
Ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng c\u1ee7a 15 n\u01b0\u1edbc cao nh\u1ea5t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi n\u0103m 2024<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean, s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh c\u1ee7a m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o th\u00e2m h\u1ee5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. T\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 chi ph\u00ed vay v\u1ed1n c\u0169ng l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh<\/strong>. X\u00e9t theo kh\u00eda c\u1ea1nh \u0111\u00f3, nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng m\u1ea1nh tay ch\u1ec9 ra ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Nh\u00ecn s\u01a1 qua, lu\u1eadn \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0y c\u00f3 v\u1ebb h\u1ee3p l\u00fd. H\u00e3y x\u00e9t tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9: \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng 1,5 ngh\u00ecn t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la c\u1ee7a Nh\u00e0 Tr\u1eafng cao h\u01a1n 50% so v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn chi ti\u00eau n\u0103m nay cho c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o \u2014 trong khi l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y th\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eafc \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t nh\u00e2n t\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u00f3i chung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy v\u1eady, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u th\u00e1ng 4 c\u1ee7a IMF c\u0169ng nh\u1ea5n m\u1ea1nh r\u1eb1ng b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 s\u1ef1 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng n\u00e0o xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u bi\u1ebfn s\u1ed1 \u2014 bao g\u1ed3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi ti\u00eau cho h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba so v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 chi ti\u00eau cho nh\u00e2n s\u1ef1, nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u v\u00e0 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 khan hi\u1ebfm lao \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u1ea1i th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m chi ti\u00eau. V\u1ec1 t\u1ed5ng quan, IMF khuy\u1ebfn ngh\u1ecb c\u1ea7n th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. Hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i, kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 gi\u00fap m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng hay kh\u00f4ng \u2014 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi AI s\u1ebd \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p bao nhi\u00eau v\u00e0 v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf th\u00f4ng qua vi\u1ec7c n\u00e2ng cao n\u0103ng su\u1ea5t lao \u0111\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t do chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb vi\u1ec7c t\u00e1i v\u0169 trang<\/h4>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p th\u00eam vi\u1ec7c gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh so v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c cao nh\u1ea5t n\u0103m 2022, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u1edf nhi\u1ec1u n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u1eabn duy tr\u00ec cao h\u01a1n m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng trong n\u0103m 2026, h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1edf Iran v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng s\u1ee9c \u00e9p k\u00e9o theo \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m \u1ea3m \u0111\u1ea1m th\u00eam b\u1ee9c tranh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng v\u1eeba qua. IMF c\u0169ng d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t s\u1ebd gia t\u0103ng \u1edf c\u00e1c m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 kh\u00e1c nhau v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2026 v\u00e0 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u00e9o d\u00e0i \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2027, t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o th\u1eddi gian v\u00e0 m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t. Tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, nh\u1eefng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u2014 nh\u01b0 Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng D\u1ef1 tr\u1eef Australia \u2014 ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch trong nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ng g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y, trong khi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng kh\u00e1c \u0111ang t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0o cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng ph\u1ea3n r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t so v\u1edbi k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m nay m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch cao h\u01a1n \u0111ang xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn ph\u00e1t h\u00e0nh th\u00eam tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 cho vi\u1ec7c mua s\u1eafm v\u0169 kh\u00ed v\u00e0 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu. <\/strong>C\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111ang ho\u00e0i nghi li\u1ec7u nhu c\u1ea7u c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ee7 l\u1edbn \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ea5p th\u1ee5 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng cung tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u00f3 hay kh\u00f4ng \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t t\u1eeb ph\u00eda c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i, nh\u1eefng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n c\u00f9ng m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc. C\u1ea7n nh\u1eafc l\u1ea1i r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i s\u1edf h\u1eefu kho\u1ea3ng 30% t\u1ed5ng n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea9y l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 t\u0103ng l\u00ean \u1edf c\u00e1c k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n kh\u00e1c nhau \u2014 v\u1edbi l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu kho b\u1ea1c M\u1ef9 k\u1ef3 h\u1ea1n 30 n\u0103m t\u0103ng l\u00ean tr\u00ean 5% v\u00e0 l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 5, theo Bloomberg.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Chi ph\u00ed vay cao h\u01a1n t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf cho c\u1ea3 khu v\u1ef1c c\u00f4ng v\u00e0 t\u01b0. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n l\u00e0m t\u0103ng chi ph\u00ed tr\u1ea3 l\u00e3i n\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m ngu\u1ed3n v\u1ed1n d\u00e0nh cho c\u00e1c \u01b0u ti\u00ean kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c c\u00fa s\u1ed1c t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi khu v\u1ef1c t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n, l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi n\u1ee3 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi ph\u00ed vay cao h\u01a1n cho c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty v\u00e0 h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh \u2014 \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u00e1c kho\u1ea3n vay th\u1ebf ch\u1ea5p nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 vay mua \u00f4 t\u00f4. <\/strong>N\u1ebfu c\u00e1c y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed5i, nh\u1eefng chi ph\u00ed n\u00e0y s\u1ebd k\u00e9o l\u00f9i t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 \u00edt c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng x\u1ea3y ra h\u01a1n, nh\u01b0ng m\u1ed9t r\u1ee7i ro c\u00f2n nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng h\u01a1n l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi gia t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau d\u00e2n sinh trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a hi\u1ec7n nay \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qu\u00e1 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf. \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 gia t\u0103ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u1ee7a l\u1ee3i su\u1ea5t tr\u00e1i phi\u1ebfu, lan sang c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 g\u00e2y s\u1ee9c \u00e9p ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c l\u00ean n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ef1c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhanh ch\u00f3ng v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ng\u00e0y nay mong mu\u1ed1n \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3m th\u1ea5y an to\u00e0n trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi d\u1ed1c h\u1ebft s\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 c\u00e1c h\u1ed9 gia \u0111\u00ecnh v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed hi\u1ec7n nay<\/mark><\/strong>. Tuy nhi\u00ean, nh\u1eefng mong mu\u1ed1n v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ec1 xu\u1ea5t ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch li\u00ean quan c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem x\u00e9t trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng trung \u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u01b0 Gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh IMF Kristalina Georgieva \u0111\u00e3 l\u01b0u \u00fd v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 4, s\u1ef1 k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch nh\u01b0 v\u1eady trong m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh hi\u1ec7n nay c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 x\u1ea5u. B\u00e0 v\u00ed n\u00f3 nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea1p ga v\u1eeba \u0111\u1ea1p phanh: \u201c\u0110\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 c\u00e1ch t\u1ed1t \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e1i xe.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rebecca Patterson <\/strong>
Nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0 nh\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn tr\u00ean to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. B\u00e0 l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u1ed3ng d\u1eabn ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh podcast The Spillover c\u1ee7a CFR.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/06\/09\/rui-ro-tu-su-bung-no-tai-vu-trang-toan-cau\/#more-67339<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n

<\/div>

<\/path><\/svg><\/i> \"Loading\"<\/p>

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n: Rebecca Patterson, \u201cBeware the Costs of the Global Rearmament Boom\u201d, Council on Foreign Relations, 02\/06\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Ph\u1ea1m \u00c1nh Minh Nh\u1eefng kho\u1ea3n t\u0103ng chi qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u00e1p l\u1ef1c gi\u00e1 c\u1ea3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam tri\u1ec3n\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":10960,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,769,8,12],"tags":[165,118,212,82,270],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-28871","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chien-tranh","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-kinh-te","tag-quan-su"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28871","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=28871"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28871\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28881,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28871\/revisions\/28881"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/10960"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=28871"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=28871"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=28871"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}