{"id":29366,"date":"2026-08-31T06:53:07","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T06:53:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=29366"},"modified":"2026-08-31T07:09:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T07:09:27","slug":"gdp-6-lam-phat-3-chu-soiran-doi-mat-voi-d-day-kinh-te","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=29366","title":{"rendered":"GDP -6%, l\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t \u201c3 ch\u1eef s\u1ed1\u201d<\/em>
Iran \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi \u201cD-Day kinh t\u1ebf\u201d<\/strong>
-Tr\u1ea7n Nguy\u00ean Thao<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau khi c\u00e1c ng\u00f5 ng\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n b\u1ebf t\u1eafc, h\u00f4m 24 th\u00e1ng 8, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai \u201ccu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o Iran\u201d g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cD-Day kinh t\u1ebf\u201d, trong l\u00fac thu h\u1eb9p m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, tuy nhi\u00ean, M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn \u0111\u01b0a si\u00eau h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1eabu h\u1ea1m USS George Washington \u0111\u1ebfn Trung \u0110\u00f4ng thay cho h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1eabu h\u1ea1m h\u1ea1m USS Abraham Lincoln.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

M\u1ed9t ng\u00e0y tr\u01b0\u1edbc (23\/8) Iran l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng \u201cph\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ea7u\u201d g\u1ecdi c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00e0 \u201cs\u1ef1 th\u1eeba nh\u1eadn ng\u1ea7m v\u1ec1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i nh\u1ee5c nh\u00e3 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9\u201d.[1]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3, truy\u1ec1n th\u00f4ng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf h\u00f4m 21 th\u00e1ng 8 d\u1eabn l\u1eddi ph\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 JD Vance tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 M\u1ef9 \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t \u201cgiai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Iran nh\u1eb1m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf\u201d. Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p n\u00e0y t\u1eebng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c T\u1ed5ng Th\u1ed1ng Trump x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 \u201c\u0111\u00f2n kinh t\u1ebf m\u1ea1nh nh\u1ea5t ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3 gi\u00e1ng v\u00e0o Iran\u201d.[2]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

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Loan b\u00e1o v\u1ec1 quy\u1ebft t\u00e2m c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, B\u1ed9 Tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i Ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 Scott Bessent, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00e0i RFI tr\u00edch thu\u1eadt c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o: \u201cb\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o, duy tr\u00ec quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Teheran s\u1ebd t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a m\u00ecnh v\u00e0o ch\u1ed7 ch\u1ebft\u201d. Washington \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi th\u00fac gi\u1ee5c c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed3ng minh v\u00e0 Trung c\u1ed9ng tham gia chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf tr\u00ean quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn ch\u1ed1ng Iran, nh\u1eb1m \u201cl\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9\u201d \u1edf Teheran m\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1. Nh\u01b0ng, M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn tri\u1ec3n khai si\u00eau h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1eabu h\u1ea1m USS George Washington \u0111\u1ebfn Trung \u0110\u00f4ng thay cho chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m USS Abraham Lincoln.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Qua t\u00ean g\u1ecdi \u201cD-Day kinh t\u1ebf\u201d – \u201cOperation Economic Outcast\u201d, B\u1ed9 T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ban h\u00e0nh quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00f4m 24 th\u00e1ng 8, \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0a Iran v\u00e0o \u201ct\u00ea li\u1ec7t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n\u201d trong c\u00e1c l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c: t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n k\u1ef9 thu\u1eadt s\u1ed1, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, v\u00e0ng, h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi g\u1ea7n 60 t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c, c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n v\u00e0 t\u00e0u thuy\u1ec1n, nh\u1eb1m \u201csi\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t v\u00f2ng v\u00e2y v\u00e0 ch\u1eb7n m\u1ecdi ngu\u1ed3n doanh thu ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng\u201d c\u1ee7a L\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng V\u1ec7 binh C\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran (IRGC) v\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 Tehran n\u00f3i chung:[3]<\/p>\n\n\n\n

~ <\/strong>To\u00e0n b\u1ed9 h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng c\u1ee7a Iran t\u1eeb Trung \u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u1edbn nh\u01b0 Bank Melli, \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o danh s\u00e1ch – Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons (\u201cSDN List\u201d), \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m giao d\u1ecbch qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf. C\u00e1c chi nh\u00e1nh Bank Melli \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i b\u1ecb y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda v\u00e0 t\u1ecbch thu t\u00e0i s\u1ea3n, khi\u1ebfn Iran m\u1ea5t s\u1ea1ch c\u00e1c k\u00eanh thanh to\u00e1n h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p. Vi\u1ec7c b\u1ecb c\u1eaft kh\u1ecfi m\u1ea1ng SWIFT c\u00e0ng l\u00e0m Tehran kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ec1n qua h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

~ <\/strong>\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi v\u00e0ng v\u00e0 kim lo\u1ea1i qu\u00fd, \u201cphao c\u1ee9u sinh\u201d truy\u1ec1n th\u1ed1ng c\u1ee7a Iran nh\u1eb1m l\u00e1ch c\u1ea5m v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed3ng M\u1ef9 kim. M\u1ecdi ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng b\u00e1n v\u00e0ng cho Ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Iran \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb c\u1ea5m tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i; c\u00e1c th\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u1ee5 d\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00e0ng b\u1ecb truy qu\u00e9t t\u1eeb h\u00e3ng h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng, c\u00f4ng ty v\u1eadn t\u1ea3i cho \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c trung t\u00e2m giao d\u1ecbch v\u00e0ng \u1edf Dubai v\u00e0 Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3. M\u1ef9 c\u0169ng ch\u1eb7n to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng th\u00e9p, nh\u00f4m, \u0111\u1ed3ng v\u00e0 than \u0111\u00e1 – ngu\u1ed3n thu l\u1edbn th\u1ee9 hai c\u1ee7a Iran sau d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

~<\/strong> M\u1ef9 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t sang c\u00e1c \u201cc\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 l\u00e1ch lu\u1eadt\u201d<\/em> m\u1edbi. C\u00e1c v\u00ed ti\u1ec1n \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u1eed li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn Iran b\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0a v\u00e0o \u201cS\u1ed5 B\u00eca \u0110en\u201d; nh\u1eefng s\u00e0n giao d\u1ecbch cho ph\u00e9p th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 Iran giao d\u1ecbch \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb \u0111e d\u1ecda tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t. H\u00e0ng ng\u00e0n c\u00f4ng ty b\u00ecnh phong m\u00e0 Iran l\u1eadp t\u1ea1i UAE, H\u1ed3ng K\u00f4ng hay Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3 b\u1ecb FinCEN truy v\u1ebft b\u1eb1ng d\u1eef li\u1ec7u l\u1edbn, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c phong t\u1ecfa li\u00ean t\u1ee5c c\u00e1c t\u00e0i kho\u1ea3n ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u1ea9n danh.~ T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i:<\/strong> ti\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Iran \u1edf n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i b\u1ecb \u201c\u0111\u00f3ng b\u0103ng\u201d ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi Tehran b\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ea7u cho Trung c\u1ed9ng hay UAE, s\u1ed1 ti\u1ec1n thu v\u1ec1 ch\u1ec9 n\u1eb1m b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng. Iran kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed5i ra M\u1ef9 kim, kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 mua v\u00e0ng, v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n ti\u1ec1n v\u1ec1 n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ea9y n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba v\u00e0o t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng ki\u1ec7t qu\u1ec7 t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh ch\u01b0a t\u1eebng c\u00f3.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Qu\u1ef9 Ti\u1ec1n T\u1ec7 Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf (IMF) th\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ecbnh, GDP c\u1ee7a Iran n\u0103m nay do t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng chi\u1ebfn tranh s\u1ebd -6,1%<\/strong>. Sau D\u2011Day Economic, \u0111\u1ed3ng Rial r\u01a1i xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 1.6\u20132.0 tri\u1ec7u rial tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t M\u1ef9 kim, m\u1ea5t th\u00eam 40\u201360% gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb. L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t nhu y\u1ebfu ph\u1ea9m v\u01b0\u1ee3t 100%, v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u \u0103n t\u0103ng 219% v\u00e0 ng\u0169 c\u1ed1c 140%. Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7, chi\u1ebfn tranh v\u00e0 tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t \u0111\u00e3 g\u00f3p ph\u1ea7n k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t l\u00e0n s\u00f3ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady tr\u00ean to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c, trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh 50% d\u00e2n s\u1ed1 r\u01a1i v\u00e0o ngh\u00e8o tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i. Kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf Iran g\u1eafn li\u1ec1n v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn tranh, phong t\u1ecfa Hormuz v\u00e0 gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng d\u1ea7u. Iran \u0111ang trong kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n (?).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nh\u1eb1m \u0111\u00e1p tr\u1ea3, Iran \u0111e d\u1ecda phong t\u1ecfa Eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz v\u00e0 \u00e9p c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc V\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh. Tehran gia t\u0103ng kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ec9 huy tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i th\u00eam quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c cho IRGC<\/a> \u2013 c\u01a1 ch\u1ebf ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ng\u1ea7m khi\u1ebfn h\u00e0ng ng\u0169 c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n d\u1ec5 chia ch\u00e1c l\u1ee3i l\u1ed9c. Ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ee5 v\u1eefng nh\u1edd B\u1eafc Kinh ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 90% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng qua lu\u1ed3n l\u00e1ch, bi\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y th\u00e0nh qu\u00e2n b\u00e0i \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n then ch\u1ed1t cho th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh Trump – T\u1eadp v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 24 th\u00e1ng 9 s\u1ebd di\u1ec5n ra \u1edf Hoa Th\u1ecbnh \u0110\u1ed1n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 l\u00fd do Iran m\u1ea1nh mi\u1ec7ng tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 r\u1eb1ng, tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t l\u00e0 \u201cth\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i nh\u1ee5c nh\u00e3 c\u1ee7a k\u1ebb th\u00f9<\/strong>\u201d. V\u00e0 h\u1ecd s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng \u201cth\u1eaft l\u01b0ng bu\u1ed9c b\u1ee5ng\u201d \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c cai tr\u1ecb v\u1edbi \u201cb\u00e0n tay th\u00e9p\u201d \u0111\u00e0n \u00e1p m\u1ecdi ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ed1i.<\/strong> V\u1edbi Trung c\u1ed9ng, Iran t\u1eeb l\u00e2u l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung d\u1ea7u th\u00f4 gi\u00e1 r\u1ebb th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c tuy\u1ebfn v\u1eadn chuy\u1ec3n \u201cngo\u00e0i s\u1ed5 s\u00e1ch\u201d. D\u00f9 B\u1eafc Kinh kh\u00f4ng c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 s\u1ed1 li\u1ec7u ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c, c\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u0111\u1ed9c l\u1eadp cho th\u1ea5y Iran chi\u1ebfm kho\u1ea3ng 12\u201314% l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng b\u1eb1ng \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng bi\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a Trung c\u1ed9ng n\u0103m 2025, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng 1.3\u20131.4 tri\u1ec7u th\u00f9ng m\u1ed7i ng\u00e0y, ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y l\u1ecdc d\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nh\u00e2n \u1edf S\u01a1n \u0110\u00f4ng.<\/p>\n\n\n

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Tuy nhi\u00ean, chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch phong t\u1ecfa Hormuz v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c M\u1ef9 si\u1ebft ch\u1eb7t ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t \u0111\u1ed9i t\u00e0u \u201cshadow fleet\u201d \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c mua d\u1ea7u l\u1eadu tr\u1edf n\u00ean r\u1ee7i ro khi c\u00e1c t\u00e0u d\u1ea7u ph\u1ea3i m\u01b0u m\u1eb9o \u0111\u1ed5i t\u00ean \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh ph\u00e1t gi\u00e1c khi qua eo bi\u1ec3n Malacca. C\u00e1c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o cho th\u1ea5y Washington \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e1i k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t v\u00f2ng tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t th\u1ee9 c\u1ea5p, khi\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u Iran ph\u1ea3i n\u1edbi r\u1ed9ng t\u1eeb 8 USD\/th\u00f9ng l\u00ean 14\u201317 USD\/th\u00f9ng \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1eef \u201ckh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng x\u1ed9p\u201d l\u00e0 Trung c\u1ed9ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

D\u00f9 v\u1eady, v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c kho\u1ea3ng 1.4 t\u1ef7 th\u00f9ng, \u0111\u1ee7 cho h\u01a1n n\u1eeda n\u0103m nhu c\u1ea7u, Trung c\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u201cc\u00e1ch nhi\u1ec7t\u201d t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00fa s\u1ed1c n\u00e0y, d\u00f9 v\u1eabn ch\u1ecbu t\u1ed5n th\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp v\u00e0 n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 nh\u1ea5t. Vi\u1ec7t Nam ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c l\u1edbn v\u00e0o naphtha v\u00e0 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u t\u1eeb v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh cho ng\u00e0nh nh\u1ef1a v\u00e0 h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t, l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng ch\u1ee7 l\u1ef1c sang M\u1ef9, EU v\u00e0 Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n. Khi ngu\u1ed3n cung b\u1ecb gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n, Vi\u1ec7t Nam bu\u1ed9c ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng nh\u1eadp c\u1ea3ng th\u00eam nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u tinh ch\u1ebf t\u1eeb Malaysia v\u00e0 H\u00e0n Qu\u1ed1c, v\u1edbi chi ph\u00ed t\u0103ng 144% ngay giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1eeb c\u00e1c d\u1eef li\u1ec7u hi\u1ec7n c\u00f3, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn r\u1eb1ng: n\u1ebfu Iran t\u00ea li\u1ec7t d\u01b0\u1edbi \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf m\u1edbi, t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u00e0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn, nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0111\u1ec1u. Trung c\u1ed9ng ch\u1ecbu \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng trung b\u00ecnh nh\u1edd d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef l\u1edbn v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111a d\u1ea1ng h\u00f3a ngu\u1ed3n cung. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, Vi\u1ec7t Nam, v\u1edbi d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef th\u1ea5p v\u00e0 ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh, s\u1ebd ch\u1ecbu t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1edbn h\u01a1n, c\u1ea3 v\u1ec1 chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t l\u1eabn \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tuy v\u1eady, Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u1eabn \u1edf t\u00ecnh th\u1ebf ph\u1ea3i c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n: N\u1ebfu qu\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh tay, \u0111\u00e1nh s\u1eadp c\u00e1c ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng l\u1edbn c\u1ee7a Trung c\u1ed9ng v\u00ec mua d\u1ea7u Iran, cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0y s\u1ebd ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c k\u00edch ho\u1ea1t m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n M\u1ef9-Trung m\u1edbi. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u201ckh\u00f4ng thu\u1eadn l\u1ee3i\u201d cho M\u1ef9 v\u00ec ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y v\u1eabn \u0111ang ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o Trung c\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n qu\u00fd hi\u1ebfm ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 cao.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Do \u0111\u00f3, Trung c\u1ed9ng bi\u1ebft r\u00f5 “l\u1eb1n ranh \u0111\u1ecf” n\u00e0y v\u00e0 \u0111ang t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u00e0m \u00e1p l\u1ef1c, bi\u1ebfn m\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfc phao c\u1ee9u sinh kinh t\u1ebf duy nh\u1ea5t gi\u1eef cho Iran kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n d\u01b0\u1edbi tay M\u1ef9.[4]<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Theo gi\u1edbi chuy\u00ean gia t\u00e0i ch\u00e1nh v\u00e0 t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, n\u1ebfu M\u1ef9 duy tr\u00ec th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa kinh t\u1ebf tuy\u1ec7t \u0111\u1ed1i,\u00a0m\u1ed1c th\u1eddi gian 6 th\u00e1ng (\u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m nay) ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n ch\u1ecbu \u0111\u1ef1ng cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng c\u1ee7a Tehran<\/strong>.[5]\u00a0<\/strong> <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong v\u0103n h\u00f3a v\u00e0 th\u01a1 ca Ba T\u01b0, m\u00f9a Thu Iran, k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 21 th\u00e1ng 12 h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, v\u1edbi t\u00ean g\u1ecdi \u201c<\/strong>Pa’iz<\/strong>\u201d<\/strong> t\u01b0\u1ee3ng tr\u01b0ng cho th\u1eddi k\u1ef3 cu\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a \u0111\u1eddi ng\u01b0\u1eddi – m\u00f9a thu cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1eddi. M\u00f9a Thu n\u0103m nay c\u1ee7a Iran c\u00f3 th\u00eam hi\u1ec7n t\u01b0\u1ee3ng El Ni\u00f1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ebd g\u00e2y \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o c\u00e1c th\u00e1ng cu\u1ed1i n\u0103m \u2013 m\u1ed9t tr\u00f9ng h\u1ee3p li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn ho\u00e0ng h\u00f4n kinh t\u1ebf; c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 khi\u1ebfn Iran l\u00e2m c\u1ea3nh \u201cv\u00e1n b\u00e0i l\u1eadt ng\u1eeda\u201d h\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ed1ng \u0111\u1ee1.\/.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1ea7n Nguy\u00ean Thao<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[1] https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/amp\/2026\/08\/23\/treasury-secretary-bessent-iran-sanctions-press-conference.html
[2] https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/politics\/articles\/vance-says-iran-war-entering-170725730.html
[3] https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/vietnamese\/articles\/ce9ez4em4j0o
[4] https:\/\/moderndiplomacy.eu
[5] https:\/\/nypost.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Tr\u1ea7n nguy\u00ean Thao Sau khi c\u00e1c ng\u00f5 ng\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n b\u1ebf t\u1eafc, h\u00f4m 24 th\u00e1ng 8, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 tri\u1ec3n khai \u201ccu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t nh\u1eb1m v\u00e0o Iran\u201d g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201cD-Day kinh t\u1ebf\u201d, trong l\u00fac thu h\u1eb9p m\u1eb7t tr\u1eadn qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, tuy nhi\u00ean,\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":29368,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[12,57,53],"tags":[],"class_list":["entry","author-nduong","post-29366","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-chuyenmuc","category-giaoduc-vanhoc-lichsu","category-kinhte-chinhtri"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29366","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29366"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29366\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29376,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29366\/revisions\/29376"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29368"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29366"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29366"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29366"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}