{"id":29859,"date":"2026-10-30T21:23:47","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T21:23:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=29859"},"modified":"2026-10-30T21:23:49","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T21:23:49","slug":"lieu-my-co-tan-cong-iran-sau-bau-cu-giua-nhiem-ky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=29859","title":{"rendered":"Li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran sau b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3?<\/strong>
James M. Lindsay<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
\"\"
___________________<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong> James M. Lindsay, \u201cWill the United States Attack Iran After the Midterms?\u201d, Council on Foreign Relations<\/em>, 23\/10\/2026<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch:<\/strong> Ph\u1ea1m \u00c1nh Minh<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau g\u1ea7n ch\u00edn th\u00e1ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Iran, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u1eefa leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1edbi Tehran, t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch chung s\u1ed1ng, ho\u1eb7c duy tr\u00ec nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng.<\/mark><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 leo thang cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Iran sau khi cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 k\u1ebft th\u00fac v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3\/11 hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ee3i m\u1edf v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng n\u00e0y trong v\u00e0i tu\u1ea7n qua. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng n\u00e0y, \u00f4ng cho bi\u1ebft M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u201cngay sau cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed\u201d ho\u1eb7c \u201cc\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed\u201d. Khi t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed The Atlantic<\/em> \u0111\u01b0a tin r\u1eb1ng \u00f4ng \u0111ang c\u00e2n nh\u1eafc t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1ec1m b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3, Trump tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1: \u201cCh\u00fang ta s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran v\u00e0o b\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m n\u00e0o tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9 v\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 3\/11.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c v\u1eabn ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u1ea1i Trung \u0110\u00f4ng. \u0110\u1ebfn cu\u1ed1i tu\u1ea7n t\u1edbi, ba trong s\u1ed1 m\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1ed9t nh\u00f3m t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn t\u00e0u s\u00e2n bay c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t t\u1ea1i khu v\u1ef1c n\u00e0y. L\u1ea7u N\u0103m G\u00f3c c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 \u0111\u1ea1o B\u1ed9 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh Trung t\u00e2m ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c chu\u1ea9n b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i kh\u1edfi \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn quy m\u00f4 l\u1edbn ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i Iran. <\/mark>V\u00e0o th\u1ee9 T\u01b0, Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng Israel Benjamin Netanyahu cho bi\u1ebft Trump \u0111\u00e3 n\u00f3i v\u1edbi \u00f4ng r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 \u201c\u0111\u00e3 s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ho\u00e0n t\u1ea5t c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c\u201d t\u1ea1i Iran.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a Trump r\u1eb1ng M\u1ef9 s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y 3\/11 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch. M\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Iran kh\u00f4ng nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ef1 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang M\u1ef9, khi ch\u1ec9 kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n ba ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n t\u00e1n th\u00e0nh. C\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng giao tranh \u0111\u00e3 khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 x\u0103ng v\u00e0 d\u1ea7u diesel t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, khi\u1ebfn nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1eb7t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi t\u1ea1i sao Trump kh\u00f4ng n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c h\u01a1n n\u1eefa \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng chi ph\u00ed sinh ho\u1ea1t trong n\u01b0\u1edbc. Vi\u1ec7c kh\u01a1i l\u1ea1i cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn v\u1edbi Iran \u0111\u00fang v\u00e0o th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u1eed tri \u0111i b\u1ecf phi\u1ebfu s\u1ebd l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam nh\u1eefng kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb m\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng c\u1eed vi\u00ean \u0110\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a v\u00e0o Qu\u1ed1c h\u1ed9i \u0111ang ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi l\u00e0m t\u0103ng kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng \u00e1p \u0111\u1ea3o trong Ng\u00e0y B\u1ea7u c\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sau ng\u00e0y 3\/11, nh\u1eefng r\u00e0ng bu\u1ed9c ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trump s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m b\u1edbt. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u00e0 \u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i: Li\u1ec7u c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf n\u00e0o m\u00e0 \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tri\u1ec3n khai \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i nh\u01b0 \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9a, v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 m\u00e0 c\u00f4ng ch\u00fang M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/strong> Qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 g\u00e2y ra thi\u1ec7t h\u1ea1i to l\u1edbn cho c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a Iran trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch Epic Fury. D\u00f9 v\u1eady, M\u1ef9 v\u1eabn ch\u01b0a th\u1ec3 chuy\u1ec3n h\u00f3a nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng tr\u00ean chi\u1ebfn tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i ngo\u1ea1i giao.<\/mark><\/strong> Thay v\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, c\u1ea3 hai b\u00ean \u0111ang r\u01a1i v\u00e0o th\u1ebf b\u1ebf t\u1eafc, khi m\u1ed7i b\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, nh\u1eefng l\u1ee3i \u00edch v\u00e0 r\u1ee7i ro li\u00ean quan l\u00e0 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng l\u1edbn. Giao tranh t\u00e1i b\u00f9ng ph\u00e1t c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng ho\u1eb7c l\u00e0m tr\u1ea7m tr\u1ecdng th\u00eam t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ebf t\u1eafc hi\u1ec7n nay, \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt v\u00e0 khi\u1ebfn n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u r\u01a1i v\u00e0o v\u00f2ng xo\u00e1y kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng. Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng hay t\u00ecm ki\u1ebfm m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p th\u01b0\u01a1ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u0169ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nh\u1eefng th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m ph\u1ea7n cam go.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng M\u1ef9 leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1edbi Iran c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 k\u1ecbch b\u1ea3n \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 di\u1ec5n ra nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o tr\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 cu\u1ed9c trao \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1edbi Cole Bucy v\u00e0 Nate Swanson \u2013 c\u00e1c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 c\u1ee7a b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft tr\u00ean t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed Foreign Policy<\/em> v\u1edbi ti\u00eau \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cTrump \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u2018th\u00e1o x\u00edch\u2019: T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1edbi Iran nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o sau cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3?\u201d \u2013 trong t\u1eadp m\u1edbi nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh The President\u2019s Inbox<\/em>. Cole l\u00e0 c\u1ef1u chuy\u00ean gia ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u1ee7a CIA, t\u1eebng \u0111\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec7m v\u1ecb tr\u00ed gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Iran t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia M\u1ef9 giai \u0111o\u1ea1n 2015\u20132016. Nate hi\u1ec7n l\u00e0 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c D\u1ef1 \u00e1n Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Iran t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u00d4ng c\u0169ng t\u1eebng gi\u1eef vai tr\u00f2 gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c ph\u1ee5 tr\u00e1ch v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 Iran t\u1ea1i H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng An ninh Qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh vi\u00ean trong nh\u00f3m \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n v\u1ec1 Iran c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Trump v\u00e0o n\u0103m ngo\u00e1i. Cu\u1ed9c tr\u00f2 chuy\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang t\u00f4i di\u1ec5n ra tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi c\u00f3 th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 nh\u1eefng b\u00ecnh lu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Netanyahu li\u00ean quan \u0111\u1ebfn cu\u1ed9c trao \u0111\u1ed5i gi\u1eefa \u00f4ng v\u00e0 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

1. V\u1ec1 c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n, Trump c\u00f3 ba l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Iran: leo thang, \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n ho\u1eb7c ch\u1edd \u0111\u1ee3i<\/mark>.<\/strong> Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, \u00f4ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ra l\u1ec7nh cho qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng v\u00e0o Iran v\u00e0 gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf l\u00ean ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y. M\u1ee5c ti\u00eau c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 bu\u1ed9c ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 cho m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh.<\/strong> Th\u1ee9 hai, Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh c\u00e1c n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n, c\u00f3 l\u1ebd b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nguy c\u01a1 n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u00f2n b\u1ea9y \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e9p Iran nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9. Th\u1ee9 ba, Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec nguy\u00ean tr\u1ea1ng v\u1edbi hy v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng, theo th\u1eddi gian, ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran s\u1ebd nh\u01b0\u1ee3ng b\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edbc c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 ho\u1eb7c t\u1ef1 s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 do t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng trong x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i Iran.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. C\u1ea3 ba ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n nh\u1eefng nh\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec3m nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng v\u00e0 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng r\u1ea5t \u0111\u00e1ng ng\u1edd.<\/strong> Nh\u1eefng l\u1eddi k\u00eau g\u1ecdi n\u1ed1i l\u1ea1i xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7t ra hai c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi c\u1ea5p b\u00e1ch. Th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t, t\u1ea1i sao m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ee3t t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng m\u1edbi c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng trong khi Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch Epic Fury tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i trong vi\u1ec7c l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Iran ho\u1eb7c bu\u1ed9c n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea7u h\u00e0ng? Th\u1ee9 hai, li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n Iran t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e1ng gi\u1ec1ng v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 c\u01a1 s\u1edf h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd? R\u1ee7i ro m\u00e0 Trump ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t l\u00e0 gi\u1edbi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o Iran v\u1eabn c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ee5 v\u1eefng sau c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng, trong khi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng gi\u00e1n \u0111o\u1ea1n s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u kh\u00ed t\u1ea1i v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng t\u0103ng v\u1ecdt, th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 nguy c\u01a1 ch\u00e2m ng\u00f2i cho m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c suy tho\u00e1i to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, vi\u1ec7c gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf l\u00ean Tehran th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p tr\u1eebng ph\u1ea1t nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o Trung Qu\u1ed1c, qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111ang \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 nh\u01b0 \u201cphao c\u1ee9u sinh\u201d kinh t\u1ebf cho Iran, c\u0169ng ti\u1ec1m \u1ea9n r\u1ee7i ro kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m<\/strong>. B\u1ed9 tr\u01b0\u1edfng T\u00e0i ch\u00ednh M\u1ef9 Scott Bessent t\u1eebng c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o v\u00e0o th\u00e1ng 8 r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eafm v\u00e0o c\u00e1c doanh nghi\u1ec7p Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u201cph\u00e1 h\u1ee7y h\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u\u201d. \u00cdt nh\u1ea5t, Trung Qu\u1ed1c c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1ea3 \u0111\u0169a b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch c\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n cung c\u00e1c lo\u1ea1i kho\u00e1ng s\u1ea3n thi\u1ebft y\u1ebfu cho n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 t\u1ecf ra quan t\u00e2m \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n m\u00e0 M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn. Tr\u00e1i l\u1ea1i, th\u00e1i \u0111\u1ed9 c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn c\u1ee7a Tehran d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 ng\u00e0y c\u00e0ng gia t\u0103ng. Tehran th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea3ng D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 trong cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed gi\u1eefa nhi\u1ec7m k\u1ef3 s\u1ebd l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu Trump, t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 v\u1ecb th\u1ebf \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh h\u1ecd.<\/strong> \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, Iran s\u1ebd t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian c\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1eeb c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i v\u00e0 ho\u00e0n thi\u1ec7n n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong khu v\u1ef1c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gi\u1eef nguy\u00ean hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng c\u00f3 l\u1ebd l\u00e0 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn h\u1ea5p d\u1eabn nh\u1ea5t, nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 duy tr\u00ec l\u00e2u d\u00e0i.<\/strong> Chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch \u201cC\u00f4 l\u1eadp kinh t\u1ebf\u201d \u0111\u00e3 gia t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u00ean n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf Iran, song kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u n\u00e0o cho th\u1ea5y chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch n\u00e0y \u0111ang th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ed9t phong tr\u00e0o qu\u1ea7n ch\u00fang nh\u1eb1m l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 phe c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n hi\u1ec7n \u0111ang t\u1ecf ra c\u1ee9ng r\u1eafn. Nh\u01b0 Cole nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh: \u201cNg\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Iran d\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u01b0 \u0111ang ch\u1ecdn c\u00e1ch thu m\u00ecnh l\u1ea1i thay v\u00ec \u0111\u1ee9ng l\u00ean ph\u1ea3n kh\u00e1ng.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

T\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1, l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa h\u1ea3i qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eb7n \u0111\u1ee9ng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a Iran qua eo bi\u1ec3n Hormuz, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi t\u1ea1o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n cho c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u1ea2 R\u1eadp v\u00f9ng V\u1ecbnh gia t\u0103ng xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u. Tuy nhi\u00ean, th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 v\u1ec1 gi\u00e1 n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n do chi ph\u00ed b\u1ea3o hi\u1ec3m cao \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c t\u00e0u ch\u1edf d\u1ea7u \u0111i qua eo bi\u1ec3n n\u00e0y. H\u01a1n n\u1eefa, l\u1ec7nh phong t\u1ecfa c\u0169ng \u0111ang g\u00e2y \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9. Cole l\u01b0u \u00fd r\u1eb1ng: \u201cCh\u00fang ta \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea5y nh\u1eefng \u00fd ki\u1ebfn ph\u00e0n n\u00e0n t\u1eeb B\u1ed9 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 D\u01b0\u01a1ng \u2013 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng (PACOM) v\u00e0 B\u1ed9 T\u01b0 l\u1ec7nh ch\u00e2u \u00c2u (EUCOM) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, cho r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c d\u1ed3n to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 ngu\u1ed3n l\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn d\u1ecbch duy nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u kh\u00f4ng b\u1ec1n v\u1eefng.\u201d<\/mark><\/strong> Ngo\u00e0i ra, c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 trong c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u00e0m ph\u00e1n, Iran s\u1ebd t\u1eadn d\u1ee5ng kho\u1ea3ng th\u1eddi gian t\u1ea1m l\u1eafng trong xung \u0111\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ec3 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. L\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn n\u00e0o h\u1ee3p l\u00fd nh\u1ea5t c\u00f2n t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o c\u00e2u tr\u1ea3 l\u1eddi cho m\u1ed9t v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i: Li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i v\u1edbi ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o Iran hay kh\u00f4ng?<\/strong> N\u1ebfu Iran \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda s\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi M\u1ef9, th\u00ec Trump n\u00ean s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn r\u1ee7i ro v\u00e0 tr\u1ea3 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 \u0111\u1eaft \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1eadt \u0111\u1ed5 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 n\u00e0y ho\u1eb7c bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn c\u00e1c y\u00eau c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9.<\/mark> Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, n\u1ebfu m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda t\u1eeb Iran, nh\u01b0 Cole \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ec9 ra, ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c \u0111e d\u1ecda s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n vong c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9, th\u00ec \u201cch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng s\u1eb5n l\u00f2ng chi tr\u1ea3 c\u00e1i gi\u00e1 c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft \u0111\u1ec3 lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 C\u1ed9ng h\u00f2a H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o; trong tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ee3p \u0111\u00f3, h\u00e3y t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c nh\u1eefng g\u00ec ch\u00fang ta c\u1ea7n v\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi bu\u1ed9c h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng c\u00e1c t\u00e0u thuy\u1ec1n.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong t\u1eadp n\u00e0y, Cole, Nate v\u00e0 t\u00f4i \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ea3o lu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 nhi\u1ec1u ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ec1 kh\u00e1c. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n nh\u01b0: c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c kh\u00f4ng k\u00edch v\u00e0 \u00e1p l\u1ef1c kinh t\u1ebf t\u1eeb ph\u00eda M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu Iran \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c n\u00e0o; l\u00fd do Trump lo\u1ea1i tr\u1eeb kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran tr\u01b0\u1edbc ng\u00e0y 3\/11; li\u1ec7u M\u1ef9 c\u00f3 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng ph\u1ea1m vi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng n\u1ebfu xung \u0111\u1ed9t t\u00e1i di\u1ec5n hay kh\u00f4ng; li\u1ec7u Trump c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng Iran \u2013 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e0nh chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng trong cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn, m\u00e0 nh\u1eb1m t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ed9t v\u1ecf b\u1ecdc ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t xung \u0111\u1ed9t; c\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn bi\u1ebfn c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u1ea1i V\u1ecbnh Ba T\u01b0 t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t l\u1ee3i th\u1ebf tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec3m y\u1ebfu; v\u00e0 li\u1ec7u l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng Houthi t\u1ea1i Yemen c\u00f3 \u0111ang h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c v\u1edbi Iran hay kh\u00f4ng.<\/strong> V\u00ec th\u1ebf, t\u00f4i mong qu\u00fd v\u1ecb c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00e0nh th\u1eddi gian l\u1eafng nghe t\u1eadp tr\u00f2 chuy\u1ec7n l\u1ea7n n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

James M. Lindsay<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ngu\u1ed3n tr\u00edch: Nghi\u00ean C\u1ee9u Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf<\/strong>
https:\/\/nghiencuuquocte.org\/2026\/10\/30\/lieu-my-co-tan-cong-iran-sau-bau-cu-giua-nhiem-ky\/#more-69338<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u1ea2nh minh h\u1ecda: V\u1eadn H\u1ed9i M\u1edbi<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/div>

<\/path><\/svg><\/i> \"Loading\"<\/p>

<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ngu\u1ed3n: James M. Lindsay, \u201cWill the United States Attack Iran After the Midterms?\u201d, Council on Foreign Relations, 23\/10\/2026 Bi\u00ean d\u1ecbch: Ph\u1ea1m \u00c1nh Minh Sau g\u1ea7n ch\u00edn th\u00e1ng xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u1edbi Iran, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ed1i m\u1eb7t v\u1edbi l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn gi\u1eefa leo thang c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1edbi Tehran, t\u00ecm c\u00e1ch\u0111\u1ecdc ti\u1ebfp…<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":29717,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_coblocks_attr":"","_coblocks_dimensions":"","_coblocks_responsive_height":"","_coblocks_accordion_ie_support":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[7,769,8,12,9],"tags":[165,118,212,119,209,82,207,226],"class_list":["entry","author-ntviet","post-29859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-binhluan","category-chien-tranh","category-chinhtri-xahoi","category-chuyenmuc","category-kinhte","tag-binh-luan","tag-chinh-tri","tag-chuyen-de","tag-hoa-ky","tag-iran","tag-kinh-te","tag-trung-dong","tag-xa-hoi"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29859","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29859"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29859\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29860,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29859\/revisions\/29860"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29717"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29859"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29859"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29859"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}