{"id":8331,"date":"2021-01-20T03:46:26","date_gmt":"2021-01-20T03:46:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=8331"},"modified":"2021-01-22T07:00:25","modified_gmt":"2021-01-22T07:00:25","slug":"doi-pho-voi-trung-cong-nhin-lai-chien-luoc-cua-hoa-ky","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/vanhoimoi.org\/?p=8331","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ed1i Ph\u00f3 V\u1edbi Trung C\u1ed9ng: Nh\u00ecn L\u1ea1i CHI\u1ebeN L\u01af\u1ee2C C\u1ee7a HOA K\u1ef2<\/strong>
Tr\u1ecdng Vi\u1ec7t<\/span>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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__________________<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i, duy tr\u00ec an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia, th\u00fac \u0111\u1ea9y t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng kinh t\u1ebf lu\u00f4n l\u00e0 \u01b0u ti\u00ean h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. \u0110\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau tr\u00ean, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1ef1 do s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u00e0 x\u00e1c l\u1eadp m\u1ed1i t\u01b0\u01a1ng quan gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 chung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong nh\u1eefng n\u0103m v\u1eeba qua, nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean x\u1ea3y ra tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady hung h\u0103ng, hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng (TC) tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ea5y l\u00ean n\u1ed7i lo ng\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 n\u1ec1n ho\u00e0 b\u00ecnh v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p n\u00e0y, vai tr\u00f2 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, m\u1ed9t si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, lu\u00f4n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1edbi h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt, tinh hoa, nh\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch quan t\u00e2m theo d\u00f5i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0110\u1ec3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec3u r\u00f5 h\u01a1n hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd l\u01b0\u1ee3c qua c\u00e1c giai \u0111o\u1ea1n l\u1ecbch s\u1eed c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1eeb Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn th\u1ee9 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh (Cold war era).<\/u><\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Sau khi \u0110\u1ec7 nh\u1ecb Th\u1ebf Chi\u1ebfn th\u1ea3m kh\u1ed1c v\u1eeba ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t, c\u1ee5c di\u1ec7n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi v\u1edbi cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn m\u1edbi. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 gay g\u1eaft v\u1edbi \u201cl\u1eb1n ranh\u201d \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb kh\u00e1 r\u00f5 n\u00e9t: m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u gi\u1eefa m\u1ed9t b\u00ean l\u00e0 kh\u1ed1i c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u v\u00e0 Li\u00ean Bang X\u00f4 Vi\u1ebft m\u00e0 Li\u00ean X\u00f4 c\u1ea7m \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 m\u1ed9t b\u00ean l\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n T\u00e2y Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n m\u1edbi v\u1edbi th\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1ef1c (bipolarity) c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u1ea3y ra b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 l\u00fac n\u00e0o, \u0111\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c (Grand strategy) c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 ph\u1ea3i g\u1ea5p r\u00fat \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 r\u1ea5t hi\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ed9c, \u0111\u00e1ng g\u1eddm m\u00e0 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 kh\u00f4ng l\u00e2u c\u00f2n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh, \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 Li\u00ean X\u00f4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    B\u1ee9c \u0111i\u1ec7n t\u00edn g\u1eedi v\u1ec1 Hoa Th\u1ecbnh \u0110\u1ed1n t\u1eeb M\u1ea1c T\u01b0 Khoa c\u1ee7a \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 Hoa K\u1ef3 George Kennan n\u0103m 1946 v\u1edbi ch\u1eef k\u00fd l\u00e0 \u201cMr. X\u201d, — sau \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t ti\u1ec3u lu\u1eadn v\u1edbi nhan \u0111\u1ec1 \u201cThe Sources of Soviet Conduct\u201d v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u0103ng t\u1ea3i tr\u00ean chuy\u00ean san Foreign Affairs v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1947 — v\u1edbi k\u1ebft lu\u1eadn l\u00e0 \u201cS\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Li\u00ean X\u00f4 l\u00e0 ph\u1ea3i ki\u00ean quy\u1ebft v\u00e0 s\u00e1ng su\u1ed1t ng\u0103n ch\u1eadn m\u1ecdi khuynh h\u01b0\u1edbng b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a CS Nga\u201d<\/em><\/strong>, \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u0103n ki\u1ec7n n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng cho chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 trong su\u1ed1t g\u1ea7n n\u1eeda th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 c\u1ee7a chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao k\u1ef3 c\u1ef1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 \u201ckim ch\u1ec9 nam\u201d cho m\u1ecdi ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ho\u1ea1ch \u0111\u1ecbnh, b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Truman, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i giao, kinh t\u1ebf, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 chung v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. V\u00e0i v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh v\u1ec1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a Kennan trong c\u00e1c s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c sau: k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch Marshall t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft T\u00e2y \u00c2u; h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 Minh \u01af\u1edbc B\u1eafc \u0110\u1ea1i T\u00e2y D\u01b0\u01a1ng (NATO), Li\u00ean Ph\u00f2ng \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (Southeast Asia Treaty Organization\/ SEATO); \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft Domino trong chi\u1ebfn tranh Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean, chi\u1ebfn tranh Vi\u1ec7t Nam, ph\u1ee5c h\u01b0ng v\u00e0 t\u00e1i thi\u1ebft Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n ..v..v..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u1ef1u trung, trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u0103n ch\u1eb7n (containment) v\u00e0 ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7<\/strong> v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau l\u00e0 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i, ng\u0103n c\u1ea3n s\u1ef1 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a CS<\/strong> xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb Li\u00ean X\u00f4 qua c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng xu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng \u201cc\u00e1ch m\u1ea1ng\u201d sang Trung C\u1ed9ng, c\u00e1c cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh du k\u00edch c\u1ee5c b\u1ed9 d\u01b0\u1edbi chi\u00eau b\u00e0i \u201cgi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng\u201d \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam, Tri\u1ec1u Ti\u00ean v\u00e0 c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 (L\u00e0o, Cam B\u1ed1t, M\u00e3 Lai, Nam D\u01b0\u01a1ng..), Nam M\u1ef9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m trong s\u1ef1 c\u1ea1nh tranh kh\u1ed1c li\u1ec7t gi\u1eefa hai kh\u1ed1i CS v\u00e0 t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c b\u1ed9 m\u00e1y chi\u1ebfn tranh, t\u00ecnh b\u00e1o, v\u00e0 ch\u1ea1y \u0111ua v\u0169 trang.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    T\u1eeb quan ni\u1ec7m n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1ef1c \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c l\u1eadp.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    2. Giai \u0111o\u1ea1n h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh (Post Cold war era).<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u00e0o ng\u00e0y 25 th\u00e1ng 12 n\u0103m 1991, Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Li\u00ean Bang X\u00f4 Vi\u1ebft ki\u00eam T\u1ed5ng b\u00ed th\u01b0 \u0111\u1ea3ng C\u1ed9ng S\u1ea3n Mikhail Gorbachev tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 t\u1eeb ch\u1ee9c, ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3i t\u00e1n Li\u00ean X\u00f4 v\u00e0 trao quy\u1ec1n l\u1ea1i cho T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Nga Boris Yelsin. L\u00fac 7:32 t\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng ng\u00e0y, l\u00e1 c\u1edd c\u1ee7a Li\u00ean Bang X\u00f4 Vi\u1ebft t\u1ea1i \u0111i\u1ec7n C\u1ea9m Linh \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n h\u1ea1 xu\u1ed1ng v\u00e0 thay th\u1ebf b\u1eb1ng l\u00e1 c\u1edd c\u1ee7a n\u01b0\u1edbc Nga.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Li\u00ean Bang X\u00f4 Vi\u1ebft, c\u00e1i n\u00f4i v\u00e0 l\u00e0 th\u00e0nh tr\u00ec c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a CS tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 c\u00e1o chung v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh c\u0169ng ch\u00ednh th\u1ee9c ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t t\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3. M\u1ed1i lo s\u1ee3 c\u1ee7a nh\u00e2n lo\u1ea1i v\u1ec1 hi\u1ec3m h\u1ecda chi\u1ebfn tranh, nh\u1eefng \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u1ec1 cu\u1ed9c xung \u0111\u1ed9t v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed, nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ea7y b\u1ea5t tr\u1eafc b\u1ed7ng b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd bi\u1ebfn m\u1ea5t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S\u1ef1 x\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 c\u1ee7a ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1 l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1ebf k\u1ef7 20. Qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t th\u1eafng l\u1ee3i v\u0129 \u0111\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1t v\u1ecdng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do v\u00e0 quy\u1ec1n con ng\u01b0\u1eddi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 khu tr\u00fa \u1edf c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u00f4ng \u00c2u (\u0110\u00f4ng \u0110\u1ee9c, Ba Lan, Hung, Ti\u1ec7p, Bulgary) hay Ukraina, Litunia, Latvia, Georgia. N\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ed9t chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u, lan \u0111\u1ebfn Nam Phi (b\u1ea7u TT Mendela, 1994), Ch\u00ed L\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u0103m 1992, h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 Francis Fukuyama \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n cu\u1ed1n s\u00e1ch nhan \u0111\u1ec1 \u201c\u0110i\u1ec3m T\u1eadn c\u1ee7a L\u1ecbch S\u1eed v\u00e0 Con Ng\u01b0\u1eddi Cu\u1ed1i C\u00f9ng\u201d(The End of the History and the Last man), m\u1ed9t t\u1ed5ng h\u1ee3p c\u00e1c bi\u00ean kh\u1ea3o ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 vi\u1ebft trong t\u1ea1p ch\u00ed The National Interest t\u1eeb n\u0103m 1989. T\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 cho r\u1eb1ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 chuy\u1ec3n sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n \u201cH\u1eadu \u00dd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7\u201d (post ideological era) khi n\u1ec1n d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng v\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ee5ng \u0111\u1ed9 \u00fd th\u1ee9c h\u1ec7 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00e1o chung, lo\u00e0i ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t h\u00ecnh th\u00e1i ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 cu\u1ed1i c\u00f9ng, v\u00e0 c\u0169ng \u0111\u1ed3ng ngh\u0129a v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 ch\u1ea5m d\u1ee9t c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u1ebfu n\u00f3i George Kennan l\u00e0 \u201cki\u1ebfn tr\u00fac s\u01b0\u201d c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 trong chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, th\u00ec Francis Fukuyama c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00f3ng g\u00f3p cho tri\u1ebft l\u00fd t\u1ed5ng quan v\u1ec1 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i giao Hoa K\u1ef3 th\u1eddi \u201ch\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ef1c s\u1ef1 b\u01b0\u1edbc sang m\u1ed9t ho\u00e0n c\u1ea3nh m\u1edbi, m\u1ed9t b\u1ea5t ng\u1edd khi chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed9t ng\u1ed9t t\u1eeb \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u l\u01b0\u1ee1ng c\u1ef1c sang \u0111\u01a1n c\u1ef1c<\/strong> (Unipolarity). Hoa K\u1ef3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ec7 nh\u1ea5t si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi v\u1ec1 m\u1ecdi ph\u01b0\u01a1ng di\u1ec7n: kinh t\u1ebf, qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, khoa h\u1ecdc, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 ..v..v.. T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng ki\u1ebfn t\u1ea1o h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c \u0111a di\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a m\u1ecdi t\u00e1c nh\u00e2n qu\u1ed1c gia v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea9y m\u1ea1nh s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u00e0 duy tr\u00ec tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1, \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong t\u00e2m th\u1ee9c chung v\u1edbi ni\u1ec1m c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 ph\u1ea5n kh\u1edfi khi ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a CS s\u1ee5p \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0 xu th\u1ebf d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng v\u1ebb vang, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch, gi\u1edbi tinh hoa, h\u1ecdc thu\u1eadt Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd r\u1eb1ng s\u1ef1 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u00e0 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e1c l\u1eadp do s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p l\u01b0u h\u1ed9i t\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do<\/strong>. N\u00f3i c\u00e1ch kh\u00e1c, tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 t\u1ef1 do, m\u1ed9t n\u1ec1n h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Ch\u00ednh v\u00ec v\u1eady, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng George H W Bush \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ecdi \u2018tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi m\u1edbi\u2019 (new world order) n\u00e0y l\u00e0 k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u201cH\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t\u201d<\/strong> (Pax Universalis). Ch\u1ee7 thuy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a TT Bill Clinton: \u201cTham gia v\u00e0 m\u1edf r\u1ed9ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft nh\u1eefng tranh ch\u1ea5p trong h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 \u0111em l\u1ea1i hy v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 ph\u1ea9m gi\u00e1 cho c\u00e1c d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d \u0111\u00e3 c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 th\u00eam quan ni\u1ec7m c\u0103n b\u1ea3n tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 m\u1edbi n\u00e0y c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o b\u1edfi Hoa K\u1ef3, \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea5u th\u00e0nh tr\u00ean ba n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u0103n b\u1ea3n<\/u><\/strong>. \u0110\u00f3 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u1ef1 do, d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 th\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ef1 do<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110i\u1ec1u quan tr\u1ecdng l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u201cH\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t\u201d n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u00ean m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 m\u1ecdi qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd v\u00e0 ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 ba n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng c\u0103n b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1eadp \u1edf tr\u00ean<\/strong> v\u00ec \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c xem l\u00e0 xu th\u1ebf t\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a l\u1ecbch s\u1eed. V\u00e0 t\u1eeb gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn h\u1ec7 lu\u1eadn \u2013m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec1u t\u00e1n th\u00e0nh v\u00e0 \u0111eo \u0111u\u1ed5i — l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i \u0111\u1ed3ng \u00fd m\u1edf c\u1eeda cho kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 c\u00e1c lu\u1eadt l\u1ec7, t\u00f4n tr\u1ecdng c\u00e1c nguy\u00ean t\u1eafc v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh chung, c\u00f9ng h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u1edbi c\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u00ec n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u01a1 h\u1ed9i ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n, \u0111\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a v\u1ec1 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i c\u1edfi m\u1edf t\u1ef1 do, nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u1ec1 cao.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Tr\u00ean b\u00ecnh di\u1ec7n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao c\u0169ng tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn v\u1ec1 d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh, h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh, v\u00e0 c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi s\u1ebd \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft qua c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ebf qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u201cTr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi m\u1edbi<\/strong>\u201d \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 Hoa K\u1ef3, qua 4 \u0111\u1eddi t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng, t\u1eeb George H W Bush (cha), Clinton, Bush (con) \u0111\u1ebfn Obama, c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 h\u00f3a b\u1eb1ng ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ngo\u1ea1i giao h\u00f2a d\u1ecbu, can d\u1ef1 v\u00e0 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c <\/strong>(constructive engagement) k\u00e9o d\u00e0i g\u1ea7n ba th\u1eadp ni\u00ean v\u1edbi c\u00e1ch nh\u00ecn v\u1ec1 m\u1ecdi \u201ct\u00e1c nh\u00e2n qu\u1ed1c gia\u201d nh\u01b0 l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i t\u00e1c (partners) h\u01a1n l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 c\u1ea1nh tranh (rivals).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong khu\u00f4n kh\u1ed5 gi\u1edbi h\u1ea1n c\u1ee7a b\u00e0i vi\u1ebft n\u00e0y, ch\u00fang t\u00f4i s\u1ebd ch\u00fa tr\u1ecdng nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1ebfn s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u1ee7a Trung C\u1ed9ng (TC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Kh\u1edfi \u0111i t\u1eeb TT George H W Bush khi chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh k\u1ebft th\u00fac, v\u1edbi ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng chi\u1ebfu l\u1ec7 tr\u01b0\u1edbc cu\u1ed9c th\u1ea3m s\u00e1t kinh ho\u00e0ng t\u1ea1i Thi\u00ean An M\u00f4n n\u0103m 1989 \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch r\u1ea5t \u201cg\u01b0\u1ee3ng nh\u1eb9\u201d c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Hoa L\u1ee5c, d\u00f9 c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec1u l\u00ean \u00e1n B\u1eafc Kinh. Ch\u1ec9 m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng sau bi\u1ebfn c\u1ed1, C\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n An ninh qu\u1ed1c gia Brent Scowcroft \u0111\u00e3 b\u00ed m\u1eadt \u0111i T\u1ea7u, \u0111em th\u00f4ng \u0111i\u1ec7p c\u1ee7a TT Bush sang cho h\u1ecd \u0110\u1eb7ng v\u1edbi cam k\u1ebft l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 M\u1ef9-Hoa s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1. Ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ebfn 1 n\u0103m sau, quy ch\u1ebf \u2018T\u1ed1i hu\u1ec7 qu\u1ed1c\u2019 c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 l\u1ea1i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00e1i x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn cho TC b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p c\u00e1c ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch v\u1eadn \u0111\u1ed9ng \u0111\u1ec3 TC \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gia nh\u1eadp T\u1ed5 Ch\u1ee9c Th\u01b0\u01a1ng M\u1ea1i Th\u1ebf Gi\u1edbi (WTO) n\u0103m 2001.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u0103m 2005, cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u1ea7n c\u1ee7a B\u1ed9 Ngo\u1ea1i Giao tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u01b0\u1ee3ng vi\u1ec7n Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 cho th\u1ea5y ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n M\u1ef9 trong h\u01a1n 1 th\u1eadp ni\u00ean, \u0111\u00e3 t\u00edch c\u1ef1c tr\u1ee3 gi\u00fap TC tr\u00ean m\u1ecdi l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c t\u1eeb kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng \u0111\u1ebfn khoa h\u1ecdc c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7, qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n, v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 tham gia c\u1ee7a b\u1ed9 Lao \u0110\u1ed9ng, b\u1ed9 T\u00e0i Ch\u00ednh, b\u1ed9 Qu\u1ed1c Ph\u00f2ng. Th\u1eadm ch\u00ed c\u1ea3 C\u1ee5c Qu\u1ea3n L\u00fd H\u00e0ng Kh\u00f4ng Li\u00ean Bang (Federal Aviation Administration) c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng ch\u01b0\u01a1ng tr\u00ecnh gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 b\u1eb1ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, \u0111\u00e0o t\u1ea1o chuy\u00ean vi\u00ean, cung c\u1ea5p ki\u1ebfn n\u0103ng cho c\u00e1c h\u00e3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u00e1y bay c\u1ee7a Hoa L\u1ee5c. Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 t\u00e0i tr\u1ee3 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng 8 vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u c\u1ea5p qu\u1ed1c gia t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o si\u00eau m\u00e1y t\u00ednh (supercomputer), th\u00f4ng minh nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (AI), robots, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 t\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ed9ng h\u00f3a, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng kh\u00f4ng gian, m\u00e1y bay, ch\u1ebf t\u1ea1o v\u0169 kh\u00ed, h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n ..v..v.. cho B\u1eafc Kinh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ch\u1ec9 sau h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n t\u01b0 th\u1ebf k\u1ef7, TC \u0111\u00e3 thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb m\u1ed9t qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1ea1c h\u1eadu, ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c kinh t\u1ebf v\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, \u0111\u1ee9ng th\u1ee9 nh\u00ec sau Hoa K\u1ef3. H\u01a1n 600 tri\u1ec7u d\u00e2n tho\u00e1t c\u1ea3nh ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00f3i. L\u1ee3i t\u1ee9c b\u00ecnh qu\u00e2n m\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ea7u ng\u01b0\u1eddi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c n\u00e2ng t\u1eeb 300 \u0111\u00f4 la\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 1978 l\u00ean 8.300 \u0111\u00f4 la\/n\u0103m v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2019. GDP l\u00e0 14.300 t\u1ef7 \u0111\u00f4 la n\u0103m 2019. R\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng tr\u00ecnh h\u1ea1 t\u1ea7ng c\u01a1 s\u1edf v\u00e0 \u0111\u00f4 th\u1ecb \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng. C\u1ea3 n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh \u201cc\u00f4ng x\u01b0\u1edfng th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi\u201d v\u00e0 n\u1eafm gi\u1eef nh\u1eefng m\u1eaft x\u00edch quan tr\u1ecdng trong chu\u1ed7i cung \u1ee9ng to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t, s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng sinh vi\u00ean v\u00e0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u sinh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c g\u1eedi \u0111i du h\u1ecdc n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i gia t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eb7n h\u00e0ng n\u0103m, ch\u1ec9 ri\u00eang trong n\u0103m 2015\u2013 2016, l\u00ean \u0111\u1ebfn h\u01a1n 328.000 t\u1ea1i Hoa K\u1ef3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00e1ng l\u01b0u \u00fd l\u00e0 song song v\u1edbi vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf, TC \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u c\u00f4ng c\u1ee7a v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u00ed t\u00e0i, x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i, gia t\u0103ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1<\/strong>, v\u01b0\u1ee3t xa t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Theo Dan Blumenthal trong cu\u1ed1n \u201cThe China Nightmare\u201d v\u1eeba xu\u1ea5t b\u1ea3n n\u0103m 2020, th\u00ec v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2014, TC \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ea1 th\u1ee7y s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee7y \u0111\u0129nh, chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m (khu tr\u1ee5c h\u1ea1m, tu\u1ea7n d\u01b0\u01a1ng h\u1ea1m, h\u1ed9 t\u1ed1ng h\u1ea1m), h\u00e0ng kh\u00f4ng m\u1eabu h\u1ea1m, t\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed5 b\u1ed9 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n t\u1ed5ng s\u1ed1 chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0110\u1ee9c, Anh Qu\u1ed1c, T\u00e2y Ba Nha, \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 v\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan c\u1ed9ng l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Gi\u1ea3i ph\u00f3ng qu\u00e2n c\u1ee7a Hoa L\u1ee5c \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i tr\u01b0\u1edbc, b\u1ecf xa qu\u00e2n \u0111\u1ed9i Hoa K\u1ef3 trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t v\u00e0 x\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u00e1c thi\u1ebft b\u1ecb \u2018kh\u00f4ng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e1i\u2019, tr\u00ean kh\u00f4ng v\u00e0 d\u01b0\u1edbi n\u01b0\u1edbc, trong c\u00f4ng t\u00e1c ph\u00f2ng v\u1ec7 v\u00e0 t\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn. Ti\u1ec1m th\u1ee7y \u0111\u0129nh c\u1ee7a TC \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c trang b\u1ecb ng\u01b0 l\u00f4i Shkvals, v\u1edbi t\u1ea7m t\u00e1c x\u1ea1 4 d\u1eadm, di chuy\u1ec3n v\u1edbi t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 kinh khi\u1ebfp 230 d\u1eadm\/gi\u1edd, m\u1ed9t \u2018s\u00e1t th\u1ee7 ch\u1ed1ng h\u1ea1m\u2019 m\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn nay, Hoa K\u1ef3 ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 v\u0169 kh\u00ed hay bi\u1ec7n ph\u00e1p n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 ch\u1ebf ng\u1ef1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    N\u0103m 2007, TC \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00f3ng m\u1ed9t h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n v\u00e0 ph\u00e1 n\u1ed5 th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng m\u1ed9t v\u1ec7 tinh kh\u00ed t\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd \u1edf tr\u00ean qu\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ea1o tr\u00e1i \u0111\u1ea5t, t\u1ee9c l\u00e0 h\u1ecd \u0111\u00e3 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n ch\u1ed1ng v\u1ec7 tinh (an-tisatellite missile). \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t th\u00ec \u0111\u00e2y ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 ph\u00e1t s\u00fang c\u1ea3nh c\u00e1o \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean cho Ng\u0169 Gi\u00e1c \u0110\u00e0i, v\u00ec m\u1ecdi v\u1ec7 tinh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed1i quan tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

    Hi\u1ec7n nay, TC \u0111\u00e3 s\u00e1ng ch\u1ebf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c h\u1ecfa ti\u1ec5n h\u00e0nh tr\u00ecnh t\u1ea7m xa DF-26B v\u1edbi t\u1ea7m t\u00e1c x\u1ea1 4.000 c\u00e2y s\u1ed1 v\u00e0 DF-21D v\u1edbi t\u1ea7m b\u1eafn 1.800 c\u00e2y s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec3 \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng trong chi\u1ebfn thu\u1eadt \u201cCh\u1ed1ng x\u00e2m nh\u1eadp, Ng\u0103n ti\u1ebfp c\u1eadn\u201d (Anti-access, Area denial) nh\u1eb1m ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t T\u00e2y Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng, Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, Bi\u1ec3n Hoa \u0110\u00f4ng, \u0111\u1ea9y lui chi\u1ebfn h\u1ea1m M\u1ef9 ra kh\u1ecfi chu\u1ed7i \u0111\u1ea3o 1 (tuy\u1ebfn ph\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 1 c\u1ee7a TC).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    V\u1edbi m\u1ed9t v\u00e0i v\u00ed d\u1ee5 \u0111i\u1ec3n h\u00ecnh trong v\u00f4 s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c d\u1eef ki\u1ec7n kh\u00e1c b\u00ean tr\u00ean, m\u1ed9t c\u00e2u h\u1ecfi kh\u00f4ng kh\u1ecfi l\u00e0m b\u1eadn t\u00e2m nhi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0 t\u1ea1i sao kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia M\u1ef9 n\u00e0o th\u1eafc m\u1eafc l\u00e0 trong \u201ck\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh\u201d, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u \u2018qu\u1ed1c-c\u1ed9ng\u2019, TC kh\u00f4ng b\u1ecb \u0111e d\u1ecda hay x\u00e2m l\u0103ng b\u1edfi b\u1ea5t c\u1ee9 qu\u1ed1c gia n\u00e0o, m\u00e0 B\u1eafc Kinh l\u1ea1i \u0111eo \u0111u\u1ed5i m\u1ee5c ti\u00eau ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng ti\u00ean ti\u1ebfn, h\u00f9ng h\u1eadu v\u00e0 m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u01b0 v\u1eady? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trung t\u01b0\u1edbng McMaster, c\u1ef1u c\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n An Ninh Qu\u1ed1c Gia, trong cu\u1ed1n \u201cBattlegrounds\u201d \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia t\u1ef1 do \u0111\u00e3 qu\u00ean r\u1eb1ng \u0111\u1ec3 b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 t\u1ef1 do, th\u1ecbnh v\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 an ninh, h\u1ecd ph\u1ea3i c\u1ea1nh tranh th\u01b0\u1eddng tr\u1ef1c. T\u1ee9c l\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00e1nh m\u1ea5t tinh th\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ec1 cao c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    3. Nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t c\u1eadp c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i giao h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c, h\u00f2a d\u1ecbu.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Trong khi c\u1ea3 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111ang b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean t\u01b0\u1edfng ch\u1eebng nh\u01b0 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh sau chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, qua h\u01a1n hai th\u1eadp ni\u00ean qua, ta \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng ki\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh t\u1ed1 t\u1ea1o ra nh\u1eefng kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng, l\u00e0m thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1n c\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 \u0111e d\u1ecda l\u00e0m \u0111\u1ea3o l\u1ed9n tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u. Th\u00e0nh t\u1ed1 ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 k\u1ec3 ra l\u00e0 Nga v\u00e0 n\u1ed7 l\u1ef1c gi\u00e0nh l\u1ea1i v\u1ecb tr\u00ed si\u00eau c\u01b0\u1eddng; B\u1eafc H\u00e0n v\u1edbi s\u1ef1 \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u0169 kh\u00ed nguy\u00ean t\u1eed; c\u00e1c t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c kh\u1ee7ng b\u1ed1 H\u1ed3i gi\u00e1o c\u1ef1c \u0111oan; Iran qua s\u1ef1 can thi\u1ec7p \u1edf Trung \u0110\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c \u201ccu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn \u1ee7y nhi\u1ec7m\u201d; Trung C\u1ed9ng b\u1eb1ng cu\u1ed9c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn hung h\u0103ng..v..v..<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    S\u1ef1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n nh\u1eefng th\u00e0nh t\u1ed1 m\u1edbi tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi nh\u1eefng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed5i, c\u1ea1nh tranh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c tr\u00ean b\u00e0n c\u1edd khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u1ec3 l\u1ed9 ra nh\u1eefng b\u1ea5t c\u1eadp trong chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c khi Hoa K\u1ef3 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean \u0111\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn c\u1ee7a k\u1ef7 nguy\u00ean \u201ch\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t\u201d<\/strong> \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ec1 ra \u0111\u1ed1i s\u00e1ch \u1ee9ng ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi c\u00e1c \u0111e d\u1ecda v\u00e0 th\u00e1ch th\u1ee9c.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung C\u1ed9ng, h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 Michael Pillsbury, gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c Trung T\u00e2m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Trung Hoa thu\u1ed9c vi\u1ec7n nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u Hudson, chuy\u00ean gia k\u1ef3 c\u1ef1u v\u1ec1 Trung Hoa, trong cu\u1ed1n \u2018The Hundred-Year Marathon\u2019, \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u00fac k\u1ebft nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh sai l\u1ea7m m\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 l\u00e0m ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch v\u00e0 ngo\u1ea1i giao, gi\u1edbi tinh hoa Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea1m ph\u1ea3i qua nhi\u1ec1u \u0111\u1eddi t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 t\u00f3m t\u1eaft sau:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    • Sai l\u1ea7m 1:<\/u><\/strong> S\u1ef1 tham gia v\u00e0 can d\u1ef1 s\u1ebd mang l\u1ea1i s\u1ef1 h\u1ee3p t\u00e1c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n<\/strong> (Engagement brings complete cooperation). Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e3 d\u00f9ng m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 c\u1ea5u k\u1ebft v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a Hoa k\u1ef3 \u0111\u1ec3 m\u1ed9t m\u1eb7t x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1ed9t m\u1ea1ng l\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c xung quanh m\u00ecnh, m\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c l\u00e0m suy y\u1ebfu phe \u0111\u1ed3ng minh, v\u00e0 ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i c\u00e1c ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i m\u00e0 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9 \u0111eo \u0111u\u1ed5i. V\u00ed d\u1ee5: trong khi Hoa K\u1ef3 t\u00ecm m\u1ecdi c\u00e1ch ng\u0103n ch\u1eadn ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t vi\u1ec7c ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n v\u0169 kh\u00ed gi\u1ebft ng\u01b0\u1eddi h\u00e0ng lo\u1ea1t (weapons of mass destruction) nh\u01b0 v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc, nguy\u00ean t\u1eed tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi th\u00ec TC l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u201cxu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng\u201d ki\u1ebfn n\u0103ng v\u00e0 ph\u01b0\u01a1ng ti\u1ec7n \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00fap ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng nguy\u00ean t\u1eed cho B\u1eafc H\u00e0n v\u00e0 Iran \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u v\u1edbi Hoa K\u1ef3. Tham gia v\u00e0 gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 TC nh\u01b0ng ch\u1ec9 nh\u1eadn l\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng ch\u1ed1ng ph\u00e1!<\/li>
    • Sai l\u1ea7m 2:<\/u><\/strong> Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111ang tr\u00ean con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/strong> Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, TC \u0111ang c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t th\u1ee9 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a t\u01b0 b\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i, \u0111\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea3ng d\u01b0\u1edbi chi\u00eau b\u00e0i c\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n v\u00e0 ch\u1ee7 ngh\u0129a d\u00e2n t\u1ed9c. H\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 Andrew Nathan g\u1ecdi \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 ch\u1ebf \u0111\u1ed9 \u0111\u1ed9c t\u00e0i b\u1ec1n b\u1ec9 (authoritarian resilience). \u0110\u1ea3ng CS \u0111\u00e3 ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n Hoa L\u1ee5c m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch tinh vi v\u00e0 th\u00e2m hi\u1ec3m qua vi\u1ec7c \u00e1p d\u1ee5ng ngu\u1ed3n d\u1eef li\u1ec7u kh\u1ed5ng l\u1ed3 (Big data) v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfn b\u1ed9 c\u1ee7a c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 tr\u00ed tu\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1o (artificial intelligence) \u0111\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u201cH\u1ec7 th\u1ed1ng t\u00edn nhi\u1ec7m x\u00e3 h\u1ed9i\u201d (Social Credit & Rating system). T\u1eeb \u0111\u00f3, m\u1ecdi ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n t\u1ea7u, nh\u1ea5t c\u1eed nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng, \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb theo d\u00f5i, ki\u1ec3m so\u00e1t. D\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n T\u1ea7u hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 gi\u1ea5c m\u01a1.<\/li>
    • Sai l\u1ea7m 3:<\/u><\/strong> TC l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201c\u0111\u00f3a hoa mong manh\u201d.<\/strong> Trong khi \u00e2m th\u1ea7m x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng th\u1ef1c l\u1ef1c, c\u1ee7ng c\u1ed1 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, h\u1ecd \u0110\u1eb7ng \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cTh\u00e2u quang, d\u01b0\u1ee1ng h\u1ed1i<\/strong>\u201d, \u201cgi\u1ea5u m\u00ecnh ch\u1edd th\u1eddi\u201d m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nhu\u1ea7n nhuy\u1ec5n v\u00e0 tinh vi khi\u1ebfn Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y \u0111\u1ec1u b\u1ecb \u201cche m\u1eaft\u201d v\u00e0 tin l\u00e0 TC th\u1eadt \u0111\u00e1ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng, \u0111\u1ea7y thi\u1ec7n ch\u00ed, r\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu k\u00e9m c\u1ea7n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00edch c\u1ef1c gi\u00fap \u0111\u1ee1 m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch thi\u1ec7n c\u1ea3m, v\u00e0 \u201ch\u00e0o s\u1ea3ng\u201d. Gi\u1ea3 d\u1ea1ng \u201ccon nh\u00e0 ngh\u00e8o \u0111\u00e1ng th\u01b0\u01a1ng\u201d \u0111\u00fang l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t \u201ctuy\u1ec7t chi\u00eau\u201d c\u1ee7a T\u1ea7u!<\/strong><\/li>
    • Sai l\u1ea7m 4:<\/u><\/strong> TC mu\u1ed1n tr\u1edf th\u00e0nh- v\u00e0 s\u1ebd-nh\u01b0 M\u1ef9.<\/strong> Trong ni\u1ec1m t\u1ef1 tin cao \u0111\u1ed9, qu\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 ng\u1ea1o m\u1ea1n, c\u00e1c chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gia v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi tinh hoa M\u1ef9 \u0111\u1ec1u tin r\u1eb1ng m\u1ecdi qu\u1ed1c gia, k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 TC \u0111\u1ec1u mong mu\u1ed1n s\u1ebd tr\u1edf n\u00ean gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc M\u1ef9. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 suy ngh\u0129 v\u00e0 s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c \u201cxu\u1ea5t c\u1ea3ng d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7\u201d m\u00e0 TT Bush (con) v\u00e0 gi\u1edbi \u2018T\u00e2n b\u1ea3o th\u1ee7\u2019 (Neocon) \u0111em ra th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i \u1edf Iraq v\u00e0 Afghanistan trong th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 2000. \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi TC, th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1ee9ng minh ho\u00e0n to\u00e0n ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      T\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 ch\u1ec9 l\u00e0 \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng! Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi t\u1ef1 do \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea7m to, \u0111\u00e3 tr\u00fang k\u1ebf th\u00e2m hi\u1ec3m c\u1ee7a T\u1ea7u. V\u00ec qu\u00e1 t\u1ef1 tin l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9 t\u1ef1 m\u00e3n, Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 \u201cng\u1ee7 qu\u00ean\u201d, m\u1ea5t c\u1ea3nh gi\u00e1c, b\u1edfi l\u1ebd \u201ctr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 v\u00e0 h\u00f2a b\u00ecnh ph\u1ed5 qu\u00e1t\u201d kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd l\u00e0 \u0111\u00edch \u0111\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a TC<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00e1c gi\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ecbnh sai l\u1ea7m tr\u00ean \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn c\u00e1c sai l\u1ea7m chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c nghi\u00eam tr\u1ecdng nh\u1ea5t trong th\u1eddi h\u1eadu chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh, nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 khi \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u00f3 v\u1edbi TC<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng s\u00e1ch l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u1ea5t nh\u1ea5t khi\u1ebfn t\u01b0 th\u1ebf v\u00e0 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ed1i ngo\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 sa s\u00fat tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Xin \u0111i\u1ec3m qua m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i ngo\u1ea1i giao trong h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean qua:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Th\u00e1ng 9, 2012, cu\u00f4c b\u1ea1o lo\u1ea1n v\u1edbi tham d\u1ef1 c\u1ee7a Al-Qeada t\u1ea1i Bengazi, Libya t\u1ea5n c\u00f4ng \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 qu\u00e1n Hoa K\u1ef3 khi\u1ebfn \u0110\u1ea1i s\u1ee9 M\u1ef9 Chris Stevens v\u00e0 3 th\u1ee7y qu\u00e2n l\u1ee5c chi\u1ebfn b\u1ecb th\u1ea3m s\u00e1t. M\u1ed9t th\u1ea5t b\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a Obama trong vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7 s\u1ee9 qu\u00e1n v\u00e0 \u00f4ng \u0110\u1ea1i S\u1ee9 d\u00f9 t\u1eeb tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e1o c\u00e1o r\u1ea5t r\u00f5 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7y \u0111\u1ee7 v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh h\u1ed7n lo\u1ea1n v\u00e0 y\u00eau c\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng b\u1ea3o v\u1ec7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u0103m 2012, trong m\u1ed9t g\u1eb7p g\u1ee1 nh\u00e2n cu\u1ed9c h\u1ecdp th\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u1ec9nh v\u1ec1 \u2018An ninh nguy\u00ean t\u1eed\u2019 (Nuclear Security summit) t\u1ea1i H\u00e1n Th\u00e0nh, Nam H\u00e0n, TT Obama \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ee9a h\u1eb9n v\u1edbi TT Nga Dmitry Medvedev r\u1eb1ng sau cu\u1ed9c b\u1ea7u c\u1eed \u00f4ng s\u1ebd \u201cuy\u1ec3n chuy\u1ec3n\u201d h\u01a1n trong quan h\u1ec7 v\u1edbi Nga. N\u0103m 2014, Nga ngang nhi\u00ean \u0111em qu\u00e2n x\u00e2m chi\u1ebfm b\u00e1n \u0111\u1ea3o Crimea c\u1ee7a Ukraine b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Qu\u1ea3 nhi\u00ean, Obama \u0111\u00e3 l\u00ean ti\u1ebfng ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u00e0 d\u1ecda t\u1ea9y chay h\u1ed9i ngh\u1ecb G9 s\u1ebd t\u1ed5 ch\u1ee9c \u1edf Sochi, Nga. Ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 v\u1eady. Kh\u00f4ng l\u00e0m th\u00eam g\u00ec kh\u00e1c v\u00e0 c\u0169ng ch\u1eb3ng y\u00eau c\u1ea7u tri\u1ec7u t\u1eadp H\u1ed9i \u0110\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o An LHQ.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      N\u0103m 2012, Syria d\u00f9ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc trong cu\u1ed9c n\u1ed9i chi\u1ebfn v\u00e0 gi\u1ebft h\u1ea1i h\u01a1n 1500 th\u01b0\u1eddng d\u00e2n. Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u00e0n x\u1ebfp v\u1edbi Nga \u0111\u1ec3 \u201cc\u1ea5m\u201d TT Bashar ai-Assad c\u1ee7a Syria x\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed n\u00e0y v\u00e0 giao n\u1ed9p to\u00e0n b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9c h\u1ea1i cho Nga. \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi TT Obama v\u1ea1ch ra \u201cl\u1eb1n ranh \u0111\u1ecf\u201d cho TT Assad. Hai n\u0103m sau, Assad l\u1ea1i d\u00f9ng v\u0169 kh\u00ed h\u00f3a h\u1ecdc ch\u1ed1ng l\u1ea1i l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng n\u1ed5i d\u1eady. Cu\u1ed9c \u0111i\u1ec1u tra c\u1ee7a LHQ x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn d\u1eef ki\u1ec7n n\u00e0y. H\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ed3ng B\u1ea3o An LHQ ra ngh\u1ecb quy\u1ebft l\u00ean \u00e1n Syria. TT Obama tuy\u00ean b\u1ed1 TT Assad ph\u1ea3i \u201cra \u0111i\u201d v\u00ec \u0111\u00e3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u201cl\u1eb1n ranh \u0111\u1ecf\u201d. K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 TT Assad v\u1eabn t\u1ea1i v\u1ecb cho \u0111\u1ebfn h\u00f4m nay, qua s\u1ef1 ch\u1ed1ng l\u01b0ng c\u1ee7a Nga. Obama ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c im l\u1eb7ng!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Trung C\u1ed9ng, t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013, TC \u0111\u00e3 ngang nhi\u00ean c\u1ea3i t\u1ea1o c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea3o \u0111\u00e1 ng\u1ea7m thu\u1ed9c qu\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea3o Tr\u01b0\u1eddng Sa tr\u00ean Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ebfn n\u0103m 2017 \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebfn 7 th\u1ef1c th\u1ec3 th\u00e0nh c\u00e1c c\u0103n c\u1ee9 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 v\u1edbi qu\u00e2n c\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 phi c\u1ea3ng v\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u0103m le c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 v\u00f9ng nh\u1eadn d\u1ea1ng ph\u00f2ng kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1i nh\u1eefng n\u01a1i n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh ch\u1ee7 quy\u1ec1n. trong khi ch\u00ednh quy\u1ec1n Obama v\u1eabn \u2018\u00e1n binh b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng\u2019, ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i chi\u1ebfu l\u1ec7. Trong 8 n\u0103m c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Obama, h\u1ea1m \u0111\u1ed9i M\u1ef9 ch\u1ec9 tu\u1ea7n tra tr\u00ean bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng c\u00f3 7 l\u1ea7n. Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch xoay tr\u1ee5c v\u1ec1 Th\u00e1i B\u00ecnh D\u01b0\u01a1ng v\u00e0 \u2018T\u00e1i c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng\u2019 n\u0103m 2015 c\u1ee7a Obama ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 tr\u00ean gi\u1ea5y t\u1edd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      V\u1ec1 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng v\u00e0o th\u1eadp ni\u00ean 1950 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 10-12% GDP. Gi\u1eefa 1990s, gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng c\u00f2n 4%. Sau 2 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn dai d\u1eb3ng v\u00e0 t\u1ed1n k\u00e9m \u1edf Afghanistan v\u00e0 Iraq, ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch qu\u1ed1c ph\u00f2ng l\u1ea1i b\u1ecb c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3 d\u01b0\u1edbi 3% GDP trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m c\u1ea7m quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a Obama. T\u01b0\u1edbng Mark Milley, tham m\u01b0u tr\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee5c qu\u00e2n, n\u0103m 2016, \u0111\u00e3 th\u1eb3ng th\u1eebng cho bi\u1ebft ch\u1ec9 c\u00f2n 1\/3 l\u1ef1c l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00e0 trong t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng s\u1eb5n s\u00e0ng chi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      4. H\u1eadu qu\u1ea3.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \u0110\u1ec3 b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a TC t\u1ea1i \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1, n\u0103m 2014, h\u1ecd T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 \u0111\u01b0a ra kh\u1ea9u hi\u1ec7u \u201cNg\u01b0\u1eddi Ch\u00e2u \u00c1 l\u00e0m \u0103n kinh doanh \u1edf \u00c1 ch\u00e2u, gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u, v\u00e0 b\u1ea3o \u0111\u1ea3m an ninh cho \u00c1 Ch\u00e2u\u201d. T\u1eeb n\u0103m 2013, h\u1ecd T\u1eadp \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f4ng b\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng khai, kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n che \u0111\u1eady, \u00fd \u0111\u1ed3 b\u00e1 quy\u1ec1n qua c\u00e1c \u2018L\u1ee3i \u00edch c\u1ed1t l\u00f5i\u2019 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i chi\u1ebfm \u0111o\u1ea1t m\u00e0 c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 l\u00e0 \u0110\u00e0i Loan v\u00e0 Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng, c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng \u2018V\u00e0nh \u0111ai, con \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng\u2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      TC \u0111\u00e3 hung h\u0103ng h\u00e0nh x\u1eed nh\u01b0 m\u1ed9t \u201cn\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1edbn\u201d trong khu v\u1ef1c, ngang nhi\u00ean x\u00e2m chi\u1ebfm b\u1ea5t h\u1ee3p ph\u00e1p Bi\u1ec3n \u0110\u00f4ng b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eefng ph\u1ea3n \u0111\u1ed1i c\u1ee7a t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia trong khu v\u1ef1c; th\u01b0\u1eddng xuy\u00ean x\u00e2m ph\u1ea1m kh\u00f4ng \u2013h\u1ea3i ph\u1eadn c\u1ee7a Nh\u1eadt B\u1ea3n, \u0110\u00e0i Loan; g\u00e2y b\u1ea5t \u1ed5n c\u0103ng th\u1eb3ng v\u1edbi \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 t\u1ea1i bi\u00ean gi\u1edbi \u1ea4n-Hoa; xem th\u01b0\u1eddng ph\u00e1n quy\u1ebft c\u1ee7a T\u00f2a \u00c1n Qu\u1ed1c T\u1ebf La Haye; ngang ng\u01b0\u1ee3c tr\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c t\u1ebf v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n ngo\u1ea1i giao chi\u1ebfn lang; mua chu\u1ed9c v\u00e0 ch\u00e8n \u00e9p c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1ecf qua ngo\u1ea1i giao b\u1eaby n\u1ee3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      T\u00f3m l\u1ea1i, cho \u0111\u1ebfn nay, ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd TC mu\u1ed1n h\u1ed9i nh\u1eadp v\u1edbi Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y, ch\u01b0a bao gi\u1edd TC tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi hi\u1ec7n h\u00e0nh. S\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng bao gi\u1edd TC ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a t\u1ef1 do d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 nh\u00e2n quy\u1ec1n c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn d\u00e2n ch\u1ee7 h\u00f3a ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, v\u00e0 tu\u00e2n th\u1ee7 quy lu\u1eadt kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/strong> TC v\u1eabn xem Hoa K\u1ef3 l\u00e0 k\u1ebb th\u00f9 s\u1ed1 m\u1ed9t v\u00e0 s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i tr\u1ea3 m\u1ed1i qu\u1ed1c nh\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd. C\u0103n b\u1ea3n l\u00e0 TC v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea3ng CS mu\u1ed1n kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh vai tr\u00f2 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c s\u1ed1 1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi, thay th\u1ebf Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u00e0 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c, m\u1ed9t tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 m\u00e0 m\u1ecdi qu\u1ed1c gia s\u1ebd ph\u1ea3i kh\u1ea5u \u0111\u1ea7u qui ph\u1ee5c TC, t\u1ee9c \u201c\u0110\u1ed3ng thu\u1eadn B\u1eafc Kinh\u201d v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2049<\/strong>. \u0110\u00f3 ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 t\u1ea7m nh\u00ecn \u201cGi\u1ea5c m\u1ed9ng Trung Hoa\u201d c\u1ee7a T\u1eadp C\u1eadn B\u00ecnh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tr\u1edb tr\u00eau thay, nh\u1eefng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ea5u cho vi\u1ec7c tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady hung h\u0103ng, nh\u1eefng b\u00e1o \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 tham v\u1ecdng b\u00e0nh tr\u01b0\u1edbng hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a B\u1eafc Kinh \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea3nh b\u00e1o b\u1edfi m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 h\u1ecdc gi\u1ea3 t\u1eeb h\u01a1n m\u1ed9t th\u1eadp ni\u00ean. Nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e1ng kinh ng\u1ea1c thay! Chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u1eabn kh\u00f4ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i cho \u0111\u1ebfn nh\u1eefng n\u0103m g\u1ea7n \u0111\u00e2y.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      5. H\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111i c\u1ee7a giai \u0111o\u1ea1n hi\u1ec7n nay.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tr\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00ean, c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf, d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh ki\u1ebfn sai l\u1ea7m v\u00e0 c\u00e1c \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u00ecnh b\u00e0y tr\u00ean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u1ea1nh tranh (\u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u) chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia l\u00e0 v\u0129nh vi\u1ec5n<\/strong> v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb s\u1ebd thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb s\u1ef1 t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u00e1c gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c c\u1ea1nh tranh quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia li\u00ean h\u1ec7. V\u00ec v\u1eady, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u1ed5ng th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3 c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1eb7t tr\u00ean quan ni\u1ec7m ng\u0103n ng\u1eeba c\u00e1c h\u00e0nh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 g\u00e2y nguy h\u1ea1i cho quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i ho\u1eb7c nh\u1eefng gi\u00e1 tr\u1ecb <\/strong>thay v\u00ec d\u00f9ng k\u1ebf s\u00e1ch \u0111\u1ec3 mong thay \u0111\u1ed5i \u0111\u1ed1i ph\u01b0\u01a1ng. \u0110\u1ec3 th\u1ef1c hi\u1ec7n \u0111i\u1ec1u tr\u00ean, chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i h\u01b0\u1edbng \u0111\u1ebfn vi\u1ec7c duy tr\u00ec th\u0103ng b\u1eb1ng quy\u1ec1n l\u1ef1c trong khu v\u1ef1c v\u00e0 d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t ng\u0103n ch\u1eadn c\u00e1c th\u1ebf l\u1ef1c hi\u1ebfu chi\u1ebfn<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh r\u00f5 r\u1eb1ng TC l\u00e0 m\u1ed1i \u0111e d\u1ecda an ninh qu\u1ed1c gia l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3, v\u00e0 tr\u1eadt t\u1ef1 to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u <\/strong>h\u00f4m nay v\u00e0 nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eb7t, nh\u01b0 John Ratcliffe, gi\u00e1m \u0111\u1ed1c C\u01a1 Quan T\u00ecnh B\u00e1o Qu\u1ed1c Gia Hoa K\u1ef3 \u0111\u00e3 nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      \u0110\u1ed1i v\u1edbi Hoa K\u1ef3, cu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ed1i \u0111\u1ea7u trong giai \u0111o\u1ea1n n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i gi\u1eefa 2 phe qu\u1ed1c-c\u1ed9ng nh\u01b0 th\u1eddi chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh c\u0169 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 v\u1edbi 2 c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c \u0111ang tr\u1ed7i d\u1eady mu\u1ed1n kh\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ecbnh v\u1ecb tr\u00ed tr\u00ean b\u00e0n c\u1edd th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi l\u00e0 Nga v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng<\/strong>; kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i ch\u1ec9 trong l\u00e3nh v\u1ef1c qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 m\u00e0 c\u00f2n l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c to\u00e0n di\u1ec7n tr\u00ean m\u1ecdi b\u00ecnh di\u1ec7n: kinh t\u1ebf, t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh, th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i, qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1, c\u00f4ng ngh\u1ec7 v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Do m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 gi\u1eefa Hoa K\u1ef3 v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng \u0111\u00e3 \u0103n s\u00e2u, b\u00e9n r\u1ec5 t\u1eeb nhi\u1ec1u th\u1eadp ni\u00ean v\u1edbi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i \u0111an xen ch\u1eb7t ch\u1ebd, khi\u1ebfn cho cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p bao tr\u00f9m l\u00ean m\u1ecdi m\u1eb7t v\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 l\u1eb1n ranh r\u00f5 r\u1ec7t. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, Nga v\u00e0 Trung C\u1ed9ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng m\u1ed1i li\u00ean h\u1ec7 ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb, kinh t\u1ebf ..v..v.. v\u1edbi c\u00e1c qu\u1ed1c gia Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y v\u00e0 nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00e1c m\u00e0 r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u trong s\u1ed1 \u0111\u00f3 l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3ng minh c\u1ee7a Hoa K\u1ef3. V\u00ec v\u1eady, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t cu\u1ed9c c\u1ea1nh tranh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c gay g\u1eaft v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed1i th\u1ee7 v\u00e0 l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c gi\u1eb1ng co, tranh th\u1ee7 v\u1edbi \u0111\u1ed3ng minh n\u00ean vi\u1ec7c t\u00ecm s\u1ef1 qu\u00e2n b\u00ecnh khi quy\u1ec1n l\u1ee3i tr\u00f2ng ch\u00e9o s\u1ebd ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p, kh\u00f3 kh\u0103n g\u1ea5p b\u1ed9i ph\u1ea7n.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Tuy nhi\u00ean, vi\u1ec7c nh\u1eadn \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eadp trung v\u00e0o c\u1ea1nh tranh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c<\/strong><\/span> kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 h\u00f3a ngo\u1ea1i giao hay theo \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1ed1i ch\u1ee7 chi\u1ebfn. Nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea1nh tranh chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c trong \u0111\u1ecba ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb \u0111\u00f2i h\u1ecfi n\u1ec1n t\u1ea3ng s\u1ee9c m\u1ea1nh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 tr\u1ed5i v\u01b0\u1ee3t c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng r\u0103n \u0111e, k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p v\u1edbi ngo\u1ea1i giao v\u00e0 kinh t\u1ebf.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i, sau ba th\u1eadp ni\u00ean, th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 b\u01b0\u1edbc sang giai \u0111o\u1ea1n c\u1ea1nh tranh \u0111a c\u1ef1c<\/strong> (Multipolarity) m\u00e0 trong \u0111\u00f3 c\u1ea1nh tranh qu\u00e2n s\u1ef1 gi\u1eefa c\u00e1c \u0111\u1ea1i c\u01b0\u1eddng \u0111\u00e3 quay tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i<\/strong>. Theo m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 quan s\u00e1t, s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng sai n\u1ebfu ta xem giai \u0111o\u1ea1n m\u1edbi n\u00e0y l\u00e0 \u201cCu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn tranh l\u1ea1nh m\u1edbi\u201d<\/strong> (new cold war).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      6. K\u1ebft lu\u1eadn.<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \"\"<\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

      Trong b\u1ed1n n\u0103m qua, T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng Donald Trump \u0111\u00e3 th\u1ee9c t\u1ec9nh Ph\u01b0\u01a1ng T\u00e2y ra kh\u1ecfi c\u00e1c \u1ea3o t\u01b0\u1edfng sai l\u1ea7m v\u00e0 \u0111\u00e3 ti\u1ebfn h\u00e0nh c\u00e1c thay \u0111\u1ed5i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1ea7n thi\u1ebft m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch nh\u1ea5t qu\u00e1n v\u00e0 xuy\u00ean su\u1ed1t.<\/strong> S\u1eed gia Hal Brands thu\u1ed9c \u0111\u1ea1i h\u1ecdc Johns Hopkins trong cu\u1ed1n \u201c\u0110\u1ea1i chi\u1ebfn l\u01b0\u1ee3c Hoa K\u1ef3 d\u01b0\u1edbi th\u1eddi Trump\u201d nh\u00ecn nh\u1eadn l\u00e0 Hoa K\u1ef3, d\u01b0\u1edbi s\u1ef1 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a TT Trump \u0111\u00e3 l\u1ea5y l\u1ea1i phong \u0111\u1ed9 m\u1ed9t c\u01b0\u1eddng qu\u1ed1c th\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng. M\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 h\u1ed3 s\u01a1 ch\u00ednh:<\/p>\n\n\n\n